It is no longer news that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the fourth and first quarters of 2022 and 2023 labour force statistics respectively. It was reported that the new rate of unemployment in Nigeria is now 4.1%, while 13.4% are on wage employment and 75.4% are operating their own businesses or engaging in farming in the first quarter of 2023. It was also disclosed that it was the new methodology that gave birth to these shocking figures, and not that anything has changed with respect to employment generation. Initially, the unemployment computation was 40 hours of work per week, and later moved down to 20 hours of work per week as a minimum to qualify someone as employed. However, the new methodology recognised the minimum of one hour of work in a week as gainfully employed. Again, the labour force age limit has been increased from the range of 15-65 to the range of 15 and above. It then means people who have the grace of living up to 95-100 years are part of the labour force in Nigeria by implication.
The argument of one-hour minimum work a week as the basis to qualify someone as employed in the new methodology of labour force survey calls for deliberation, and requires further conversations, considering our peculiarity. Is one hour of work good enough if someone chooses not to do more jobs? Is one hour of work liveable? Does the minimum of one hour of work for a week really make any sense? Is the income generated within one hour of work in a week in Nigeria realistic to justify this new methodology? With all sincerity, can two hours of work feed someone for a week in Nigeria? Does Nigeria have an hourly pay rate? Let’s assume one uses the Nigerian minimum wage of N30,000 a month, 30 days in a month, and 8 hours a day; one can only generate N125 for one hour of work. Don’t forget that not all the states in Nigeria are paying the minimum wage of N30,000. Even if they all agreed to pay, can this amount feed someone for two hours, not to talk for one week? Then I ask, what is the value of a policy, guideline, or new methodology if it cannot be practicalised? In fact, there are so many questions begging for answers.
It appears that the committee or policymakers regarding the new model for unemployment statistics have not weighed the implications before accepting the shocking new methodology from the International Labour Organisation (ILO). The worst part of the tale-guided exercise is the fact that the number of unemployed Nigerians is still unknown, because even the current Statistics-General, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, could not give the figure when he was interviewed by AIT. All he could say is that Nigerians need to wait till after the whole year’s labour force survey in 2024. It is important to understand that any attempt to politicise economic issues will depict lies, because economic issues are more practical than theories, and any economic theory that violates the reality of life is abnormal. Because you cannot say to have a full employment level and more than half of your population wallow in abject poverty. It is totally ironic and abnormal.
The next question is, how do we reconcile this new methodology of calculating the unemployment rate with economic theories, the practical and everyday reality of Nigerians? If the new methodology is born out of consolation, or a diplomatic way of saying we are fine, if even we are not, then, we need to think it through again. I have thought it through, and to me, it does not add up. Again, surveying 35,520 households out of 200 million population requires a rethink. I have never been surveyed nor did I know anybody who had ever been surveyed. So, it will be difficult to rule out cynicism in Nigeria in a situation like this. As Tope Fasua put it, “Don’t blame us if we disbelieve, work on your methodology”.
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In conclusion, continuing with this new methodology, which many scholars have faulted, including the former Statistician-General, Mr. Yemi Kale will amount to ridiculing ourselves, the jobless Nigerian population, and a sign of insensitivity. The future implications will include distrust of the NBS data if urgent action is not taken to salvage the situation. Again, aside from looking into the sampling size, NBS need to expand and spread the geographical coverage of the survey for proper understanding and public buy-in. The next quarter survey will be another testing period.
Omale Omachi Samuel
Centre for Social Justice, Abuja
