The eventual triumph of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan at the Court of Appeal last week may have altered permutations ahead of Saturday’s Kogi gubernatorial election, Daily Trust reports.
Recall that Akpoti-Uduaghan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was sworn in last Thursday as the senator representing Kogi Central senatorial district after she recovered her mandate at the appellate court from Engineer Abubakar Ohere of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The gubernatorial candidate of the APC, Usman Ododo, had tried to douse the tension generated by Akpoti-Uduaghan’s victory when he told State House correspondents on Thursday after meeting with President Bola Tinubu that the development would not have any effect on his chances during the November 11 election.
But with the keenly contested gubernatorial polls for the state only a few days away, political analysts and party stalwarts have been positing that this might turn out to be the impetus PDP and its gubernatorial candidate, Dino Melaye, needed to give the ruling APC a tough contest.
Others are, however, of the opinion that the gubernatorial candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Murtala Yakubu Ajaka, maybe the greatest beneficiary of whatever alteration that Akpoti’s victory will cause in the election. This is because Ajaka, being from Kogi East with 10 local government areas which form almost 50% of the state’s population, is already considered among the top contenders, especially with the regional politics being played in the state which has seen each senatorial zone queue behind its own gubernatorial candidate along ethnic lines.
Isaiah Ijele, a stalwart of SDP and Director of New Media of Muri/Sam Campaign Organisation said Akpoti-Uduaghan’s victory will prevent block votes for APC in the central, which will play to the advantage of his party.
But the power of incumbency and party structure are still considered as APC’s strongest pull and thus Kogi Central with its five local government areas may still be that of the ruling party to lose.
“Yahaya Bello is still the strongest politician from Kogi central and you know you cannot rule out the power of incumbency as well as the politics of ethnicity that we are already witnessing in the state. Therefore, Natasha’s victory may not have made much impact in her senatorial zone on Saturday beyond her local government.
“It’s expected that her people will mobilise for PDP but you expect Yahaya Bello and the APC candidate to deliver the other four LGAs for the ruling party. But except some last-minute politicking takes place, from the campaign, we expect every senatorial zone to queue behind their son: Kogi Central for APC, Kogi East for SDP and Kogi West for PDP and ADC,” Olasunkanmi James, a political analyst, observed.
He noted that Kogi West may be more difficult to pin down for either of PDP’s Melaye or ADC’s Leke Abejide and both of them may have to seek more votes from other senatorial zones, which makes Kogi Central more appealing for the PDP.
The ethnic politics in play may however prevent Akpoti-Uduaghan from pulling her weight for her party’s candidate, local politicians from her area observed.
Mohammed Adeiza, who is also from Ihima, Okehi LGA as the senator, said the PDP senator “will find it difficult to campaign for her party openly.
“Our people love and supported her. In fact, they trooped out en masse in Ihima, her town in Okehi LG to celebrate her final victory at the appeal court, displaying masquerades and beating drums to express their happiness. Even at Okene, people went out to celebrate her but not as in Ihima. But that is that as far as local politics is concerned,” he said.
Enesi Abdullahi, an APC stalwart in the same senatorial district, said her emergence as the senator representing the district has no effect as far as the coming governorship election is concerned.
“The people of the Central Senatorial district, comprising five local governments of Okene, Okehi, Adavi, Ajaokuta and Ogori Magogo know where they are going already.
“Senatorial election is different from governorship election. No candidate can beat the APC, candidate, Usman Ahmed Ododo in the coming election in the central, quote me,” he said.
Another politician from the zone, Dr Abdulrahaman Abdulkareem, from Okene LGA said even though her victory has shown that she is an Amazon to reckon with in the district, the real job for her maybe in mending fences, especially the “many toes she stepped on while pushing for her ambition,” thus, making the gubernatorial polls too early in the day for her to make real impact.
But the leader of a civil society organisation in the state, Idris Miliki, said the victory of Akpoti-Uduaghan “will obviously affect the outcome of the coming governorship election in the state because her party and supporters will want to prove that her victory at the polls as confirmed by the courts was not a fluke.”
Miliki, the Executive Director of Conscience for Human Rights and Conflict Resolution (CHRCR), added, “She is now a leader in the central district with great influence. Her emergence will affect the dynamics of election in the central and east, including improving the image of her party, with high winning stake against the ruling party at the polls.”
Similarly, a member of the newly constituted state interim executive council of the PDP, David Ogwu, said the victory of Akpoti has given indication that votes now count, adding that the party will consolidate on her victory to shine at the polls.
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