A professor of political science at Bayero University, Kano, Professor Kamilu Sani Fagge has predicted that United State’s president, Donald Trump, may lose Tuesday’s presidential election.
He said the outcome of the election will be determined by the outcome of voter turnout, especially the youths, women and minorities.
Fagge stated this while speaking to Daily Trust on the election.
If he eventually loses, Trump will be the first US president to lose reelection in the last 27 years since George Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1993.
According to him, “The elections in United States usually follow the pattern of public opinion. And, from all indications, it seem like Joe Biden is most likely to win, because, up till [Sunday and even Monday], the margin between them is up to 12% or so. So, if these things are to hold as they are, Biden is likely to win.
“But, this depends on a number of factors. The first factor is that Biden’s constituency to turn out en masse and vote. His constituency is the youths, women and minorities. This is where he has his major support. So, if these people should come out, he is likely to win.
“But, if there turnout is low, probably Trump will win because the conservative uneducated whites in swing states will change the direction. So this is the likelihood of it.
“Trump may lose the election because of so many things. First, is his policies. Trump is literally reckless in terms of his speeches, so he angered so many sectors of the society be it women, be it minorities, be it poor and so on. So, he has a very reckless approach to these.
“Secondly is the issue of coronavirus. He consistently refused to accept that there is problem. The pandemic is biting hard in the US, but the way he is handling it, will also likely cost him the election. The third element is the fact that many Americans are tired of his own policies, especially issues of tax evasion, his talk about gender, his talk about minorities, is daunting the image of America in the eyes of the world, especially its major partners in NATO are not happy with the way he is handling things. So I see America is finding itself being gradually isolated in world affairs.
“So, all these issues are likely to contribute to his electoral failure.
“Another thing is the country has what is known as ‘lame-duck policy’. Lame duck is that all the presidents are very active in their first term. But, when they come to the second term, they become in capable because they don’t have the zeal to pursue policies because they know they are not coming back. And then they find stiff resistance from the assembly. So all these things make the second term president to not too active.
“Another factor would be even the Republicans are trying to dissociate themselves from him. Even those senators, governors and House of Reps members that are due for election tomorrow, some of them are campaigning that they should be considered a separate from Trump. In other words, they are dissociating themselves from him. These are the factors that may contribute to his failure.
“The last one is that even in the swing states, some of the swing states that used to be Republicans have indicated that they are likely going to be Democratic. As the early votes show, now, they are getting to almost 90 million voters who have cast their votes. So all these ones are indicating that the game is shifting towards Democratic party.
“But, like I said, it all depends on the turnout of these vital groups for Biden,” Fagge said.
On whether there could be anarchy as predicted by many if Trump loses the election considering his utterances, the scholar said the country is a constitutional democracy.
“Even if Trump eventually loses, nothing will happen. All these things that Trump is talking about not accepting the results, not to do that, he can’t do them because America is a constitutional democracy, and there is rule of law. So, nobody there is above the law.
“So, if Trump loses, I’m telling you, you will see him coming out after making all little nausea here and there, he will come out and congratulate the president. He will accept people’s will. Whosoever wins, the other come out and congratulate.
“Even though Trump is the one that is saying he will not accept, but if he loses, he will come out, because at the end of it will jeopardize his career even if he does something that will bring instability, they will end up even jailing him,. So, America is not like us here where people will challenge things like that and go scot-free,” Prof. Fagge added.
