Why price of rice may rise further

Consumers are becoming increasingly alarmed by the rising price of processed rice, which millers attribute to the cost of paddy now in the market.

The current price of a 50kg bag of rice in Abuja, which varies depending on the brand, is between N38,000 and N43,000—the highest price since the country’s independence in 1960.

There are worries that the price may increase because it’s possible that the irrigation harvest won’t fill the gap left by the 2022 flood calamity.

Rice millers in Kano State attribute the recent paddy scarcity to last year’s flood, which affected vast rice plantations across rice producing areas.

Our correspondent in the state gathered that despite being sold at very high prices, many paddy markets have run out of supply.

Daily Trust gathered that a 100kg of paddy is now sold at N25,000 as against N18,000 to N19,000 last year and even at that price, the paddy is said to be absent in most markets in the state.

A paddy merchant in Kura LGA of the state, Malam Shehu Buba said most of the rice milling companies currently operating are the bigger mills that have already succeeded in stocking paddy, adding that only a few smaller mills are able to operate under the current situation.

“The paddy millers are currently using is from the wet season production. The 2022 wet season was characterised by flooding, which affected farm yields in most places and, by extension, paddy availability.

“Most of the millers operating use stock from 2022 while others await supply from the dry season rice production,” he said.

A member of the management team of one of the mega rice mills in Kano who spoke on condition of anonymity said the wet season last year wasn’t impressive (due to flooding) as rice paddy production dropped drastically, which affected supply to mills in the state.

However, a rice farmer, Usman Shehu Zangon Buhari, said that paddy will soon be available as the dry season harvest has begun.

“No doubt, rice paddy is scarce these days in the markets, and this is because the wet season production wasn’t all that impressive due to the flood. However, the issue of paddy scarcity will soon be over as the dry season harvest will start arriving in the next four weeks,” he stated.

In Benue, our correspondent said millers have expressed mixed feelings over the rising prices of paddy in the face of its fair scarcity.

A miller at Wadata Rice Mill in Makurdi metropolis said it had been a mixed experience for him with the unstable price of paddy. 

He explained, “At the beginning of harvest last year, one could get a bag of paddy for about N30,000. But as the months progressed, towards the end of January, it was N35,000 and it stayed there. But, it has peaked at N37,000 as cash becomes available again. 

“However, during the cash crunch, it came down a bit to N34,000 if you have cash because most of the local farmers do not accept transfer since they don’t have bank accounts; but it has gone up to N37,000 with the return of cash.

“It’s most likely to reach N40,000 before the end of May. The cashless policy really affected the business as some people were unable to sell.

“Paddy is available but in limited quantity. The way the price is rising shows that the paddy is not much available.”

Similarly, Mtom Lan, a miller at Modern Market in Makurdi, said the price of paddy had been on the rise because of an increase in demand.

Lan noted that though the paddy was not readily available as it should be, however, the prices had been going up in recent times.

“I bought paddy during the cash crunch for N35,000 per bag. But right now, it is sold for between N36,000 and N38,000. 

“I hardly find enough of paddy to run my mill as required. Last year’s flooding may have played a role in the scarcity we are now experiencing,” Lan said.

In Niger State, competition among rice millers has made access to paddy by processors difficult.

Daily Trust correspondent in the state gathered that millers from Kano, Jigawa, Katsina and Argungu, Kebbi states go into the rural communities in the state while processors in the state also struggle to meet their daily needs of paddies.

One of the rice millers in the state, Yazid Adamu of JAAF Foods Nigeria Ltd, Minna, told Daily Trust that before the issue of cash scarcity receded, processors were having difficulties buying from farmers, saying that most rural farmers were only selling to those who had cash.

“Cash is a little bit more available now, compared to when it wasn’t at all. So, now, processors are everywhere because businesses have picked up again. Now, you would see processors from every angle.

“But we hope that between June and July when farmers would begin the rainy season planting, paddies would be available because farmers would begin to bring out the ones they kept to sell and buy farm inputs such as fertiliser and chemicals.

“For those who know, rice is not difficult to sell and it gives money instantly if you have it,” he said.

Adamu said the lack of enough paddies had affected the rice processing business, adding that “the way out of scarcity of rice paddies is to encourage more people to go into farming.”

In Taraba, our correspondent reported that the demand for paddy rice has pushed the price up. 

A 100kg bag of paddy rice is now sold at the rate of N22,000 as against N16,000 sold at this period last year.

A miller, Ibrahim Adamu, told  Daily Trust that in previous For years, he used to buy 10,000 bags of paddy rice which he processed to sell in the market but this year he was only able to purchase 2,300 bags of paddy rice because of the scarcity of the products.

He said the price was also high this year, pointing out that in previous years, a 100kg bag of paddy rice cost between N14,000 and N16,000 but this year the price shot up to N22,000. 

Ibrahim Adamu, however, linked the scarcity of paddy rice to floods recorded in the state that destroyed more than half of the rice farms in the state.

A middleman at Mutumbiyu grain market, Awwal Mutumbiyu, said despite the fact that the dry season harvest has begun to enter the market, a bag is still sold at between N20,000 and  N22,000. 

The price of rice is extremely unlikely to decrease given the continued high cost of production.

The price of agrochemicals has remained high, and a bag of fertilizer currently costs N25,000 in most states, both of which may contribute to the price of rice remaining high.

Along with these issues, there is also the widespread concern that the elimination of fuel subsidies could result in increased transportation costs, which would worsen the situation.

By Vincent A. Yusuf (Abuja), Ibrahim Musa Giginyu (Kano), Hope Abah Emmanuel (Makurdi), Abubakar Akote (Minna) & Magaji Isa Hunkuyi (Jalingo)