Who will lead the North? (I)

In a way, this question may seem irrelevant given some of the political realities on ground.

The North in context here is the former Northern region of Nigeria which today had been broken into 19 states governed by freely elected executive governors and hundreds of local government areas, each managing its own peculiar challenges by indigenous leaders freely chosen or appointed by consensus. The North also comprises three geo-political zones – North West, North East and North Central – all of which are represented by hundreds of local and national legislators.

Collectively, all of these are to ensure that the North is adequately represented and not short-changed in the national scheme of things in Nigeria. Under the circumstances if at all there arises a compelling need for anybody to ‘’lead the North’’, then it should not be difficult to choose from amongst the hundreds of leaders from the local, sub-national and national legislative caucuses of the North. And if those do not fit the bill, the North has an array of choices from the ranks of retired military, diplomatic, technocratic and business figures that can pick up the slack.

So why then does the question persist?

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I discussed the subject matter with a top northern political veteran who is now into ‘’semi-political retirement’’ as he put it and his response was quite poignant. His point-blank view was that among the northern political elite there is a feeling of political apprehension at President Tinubu’s political and economic trajectory which is clearly aimed at decimating the northern political advantage in terms of voting numbers and skillful political manoeuvring at the national stage.

He said in the run-up to the last presidential election, he along with some northern political elders saw this coming ahead and tried to steer some of the younger northern political figures away from what they saw. But he said ‘’some of them even abused us publicly and called us all sorts of names’’. One of them he said ‘’was here recently. He came to apologise and even knelt down asking for forgiveness from me as a father now that he has seen the light’’.

The view among many people in the North concurs with that of the northern political elder. Indeed in some parts of the North, the opinion is that President Tinubu is able to target the North mainly due to lack of political foresight and selfishness on the part of the northern political elite. Pointedly, some say that President Buhari – the penultimate President Muhammadu Buhari – who ruled for eight years had a gilt-edged opportunity to heal the visible cracks in northern political and social cohesion but by acts of omission and commission chose not to. They also blamed him for not raising the level of northern economic activities in the nation.

I can confirm that across the North, there is indeed a feeling of apprehension and even desperation at the way and manner President Tinubu is conducting his political orchestra. As they say in footballing terms, President Tinubu has ‘’benched’’ the likes of potential northern political opponents like former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, within the ruling All Progressive Congress Party (APC). The set-up is such that no incumbent northern governor or political figure within the APC can hope to succeed at any attempt to run parallel to the interests of President Tinubu otherwise, they would soon be biting the dust.   

Those in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi (Kauran Bauchi), and Senator Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto have to contend with Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike who is a stalwart of the party and acting as President Tinubu’s political bouncer strategically placed to counter any of them who tries to come up against the president.

In the National Assembly, Senate President Godswill Akpabio has proven to be a capable political bagman of the president watching with eagle-eyed attention at any signs of any rear-guard political action either individually or collectively from northern legislators perceived at opposing the president, which he swiftly proceeds to crush ruthlessly. The examples of Senators Abdul Ningi and Ali Ndume come to view. As if these moves were not enough signs of concern, many northerners view with great concern the increased tempo of veiled and unveiled unjustified attacks at northerners by obviously hired journalists and political figures mainly from President Tinubu’s southwest.

Northerners have not failed to notice that President Tinubu-owned media outfits, The Nation Newspapers and TVC television station, seem to have of late increased the tempo of profiling on northerners in this respect. Former Ekiti governor, Ayo Fayose, was also reported to have made statements that Nigeria’s problems was mainly attributed to northerners breeding children with reckless abandon without making plans for raising them.   

But what has alarmed northerners are the ongoing surreptitious efforts by the Tinubu administration to sponsor a reconfiguration of Nigeria’s political structure whereby the face of the northern region will be further balkanised with parts of its areas cut down and merged with the South West, adding to the political advantage of the latter over the North.                            

The encirclement of the northern political establishment is not limited to the political sphere alone. Many in the North believe that Tinubu’s harsh economic policies are mainly targeted at the North to destroy what little of its economic fortunes thereby impoverishing and pauperizing its populace. Many in the North link the ongoing travails of the Aliko Dangote Refinery owned by Aliko Dangote, who has in the latest rankings now been overtaken by a South African as the richest man in the continent, to the machinations of President Tinubu.

Northerners believe that what is being dished out to Dangote is the first in the series of actions which will eventually be visited on other notable northern businessmen sooner or later.

In the North, looking at these series of developments, there is a feeling of collective betrayal that President Tinubu who garnered over 60 per cent of the total votes he needed to win the 2023 presidential election and ascend to power from the region will turn around to subject the North to these clearly ungrateful actions. And to add salt to the northern injury which he had inflicted, President Tinubu recently told northerners brusquely to their face that it was not their votes but his money that got him the 2023 election.

Of course with such undisguised hostile actions directed at them, northerners feel justifiably apprehensive that going forward, when the coast becomes clearer, President Tinubu would plunge and twist the dagger at the heart of the North.

So the inevitable question is what can the North do about this? (To be continued)