All through history, major wars have been fought and peace eventually brokered after long or short periods of varying degrees of hostilities.
Most often, weird assumptions, misconceptions, over/under estimation of opponents’ intentions as well as the personal ego of leaders have singly or jointly precipitated such crises (ala John Stoessinger in his ‘Why Nations Go to War’).
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The current Russia/Ukraine war presents a most serious dilemma and debacle for world peace for the singular reason that there is no credible mediator in sight to broker a peace deal!
All the major world powers are involved in this war directly and by proxy, making it totally impossible for any of them to rise as mediators.
The hostility is a little short of a World War because African nations, much of Asia and other developing countries of the world are not involved and are not persuaded to, despite intense subterranean prodding and pressure.
These nations, instead choose to watch from the sidelines.
As it is now, the US, all of Western Europe and much of Eastern Europe under the aegis of NATO are sided in the raging war or ‘military operation’ as Putin chooses to call it.
Presently, there is a stalemate in the war that is unarguably un-winnable, largely because of mutual restraint by the feuding forces to forestall a degeneration to the extent of nuclear exchanges, the ultimate consequence of which is in no doubt.
Short of admitting it, both blocs in the war would wish for a cessation of hostilities but there is the big problem of personal, nay, national pride/ego – a bane of crisis situation in inter-state politics. They all now desperately need a safe landing to save face amidst the huge economic toll on the feuding nations and the collateral on the entire world. Hunger and inflation indeed loom.
No doubt, reality has now dawned on everyone that the world can no longer afford this kind of crisis anymore as no nation can ever again be said to be so totally self-sufficient and self-reliant as not to need the other. It’s now a world of inter-dependence as current realities indicate.
In the case of the present dilemma in the Russia/Ukraine war, who rises up as a credible mediator that can reasonably rein in the warring parties? Absolutely none. Turkey was barely tolerated because of certain regional interests by the US and Russia.
Is it the United Nations (UN) which ordinarily ought to but had long lost its masculinity and credibility to the extent of brokering peace between powerful nations involved in the current war?
The UN’s helplessness is the price the entire world has to pay for allowing the world body to succumb to manipulations of varied forms by these super powers themselves, never realizing that they only succeeded in shooting themselves in the foot. Pray, the UN does not go the way of the League of Nations, its precursor.
What about the African Union and any other continental body? They are equally helpless. Does the hyena separate a fight between two lions or tigers?
Brokering peace amongst nations implies certain capacities and capabilities, amongst which are credibility, capabilities for ‘peace keeping’, ‘peace building’ and ‘peace enforcement’.
As it is now, the world is in a dilemma over the war while its fate hangs in a dangerous balance.
May God save Humanity
Celsus E. Ohain wrote from Benin
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