What the opposition should do

One thing the opposition has learnt from 2023 is that it cannot win an election when divided. Regional, ethnic and religious divisions cannot unseat an incumbent; only unity can. Political parties and several political associations in the north are keen to support this unity. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) have been making headlines with the possibility of bringing their parties together. However, they also risk repeating what the opposition did in 1979 and 1983, allowing the National Party of Nigeria (NPN).

I speak of the failed political alliances between Aminu Kano, Obafemi Awolowo, and Nnamdi Azikiwe in the late 1970s and early 1980s; a project that allowed the less-popular Shagari to dominate the elections in 1979 and 1983. The alliance failed due to personal rivalry, ideological differences, and ethnic divisions. Each of them had long-standing ambitions to lead Nigeria and was unwilling to yield leadership to the others. Ethnic and regional loyalties tied each of them to a specific base, which made national unity difficult. A lack of trust was noted, which goes back to pre-independence and the First Republic contests. It is expected they learnt from it decades later.

This is not different from what we have today, where Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso claims to be a more significant political figure than Peter Obi because he has a PhD. As for Obi, aside from his frugal ideology and his consistent call to move from consumption to production, he remains the choice of those advocating that it is the turn of the Igbo to rule. Atiku Abubakar has been discussing policies and is currently advocating for a six-year, one-term presidency. It is a blue-sky idea with many shortcomings for Nigeria’s democracy.

Regardless of their faults, and they have many, these presidential candidates have a solid support base. However, it is not just them alone; some equally formidable candidates did not contest in 2023 but have the credibility to rally voters’ interest. Still, unless they all unite to work under one political party, there is little chance of unseating the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC). Besides, the support from all the regional political associations can only be successful with a formidable political party.

As things stand, merging political parties is difficult, unlike how APC achieved it in 2013. One reason is that there are internal crises in each of these political parties, and the presidential candidates do not have control of these parties, which is unlike the case of Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). If we recall, other groups joined the APC merger from other parties, such as the new PDP and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). One thing to note is that the announcement of the APC merger was made in early February 2013, after all agreements were signed. That was less than two years after Jonathan won the 2011 elections.

So, if the opposition is serious about uniting, the time for discussing mergers is very tight, especially now that several opposition parties are undergoing internal crises. The legality of LP leadership is being challenged and will take a while to conclude. If Julius Abure succeeds in the crisis, it will be difficult for a merger or Obi to emerge as the presidential candidate. It could be similar to what happened to Moghalu during the ADC primaries.

In NNPP, a party faction is thought to have suspended Kwankwaso. This kind of issue will also take a lengthy legal process to address. It will not favour Kwankwaso if he intends to negotiate a merger with another party. PDP is working to fight against Nyesom Wike’s shenanigans. The PDP leadership is becoming more stable as state congresses conclude. A national meeting will decide on the fate of the party chairman. Siminalayi Fubara is also taking over the Rivers State’s structure following the local government (LG) elections, which can increase the party’s prominence as the main opposition. However, until everything is sorted, the merger will be complicated.

Since the case for merging political parties is difficult, the next option is to consider an alliance. Yet, even that may prove difficult as this will require the political parties to agree instead of individuals. The present scenario is definitely from Buhari’s CPC and Tinubu’s ACN where the party leadership supported their decisions. However, hope should not be lost because there is an equally good option—and it is also obvious—for Peter Obi and Kwankwaso to return to the PDP.

But for this to happen, Obi and Kwankwaso must find common ground with the opposition party. They should hold out their long-standing ambitions to lead Nigeria because that goal kept the APC in power in 2023. To return to PDP, they must re-align their goals with the PDP’s. Nonetheless, their return may require some negotiations, as long as it does not clash with PDP’s primary goal—to kick out APC. They can use regional, religious and ethnic differences to unite the electorate against APC’s way of divide and conquer.

The PDP’s sole goal is not unusual, especially for the main opposition party that has been out of power for 10 years and will be 12 years by 2027. In democratic systems, opposition parties often rally around the central goal of unseating the ruling party. For example, in the United Kingdom (UK), the Labour Party’s 2024 victory under Kier Starmer came after 14 years of Conservative rule. The opposition parties were united to vote strategically. They even adopted Tony Blair’s slogan from 1997, “Vote the Tories Out”, which aligns with a public perception of desperation for change in governance.

It is expected that following a democratic process to select a presidential candidate will also apply. Obi and Kwankwaso left the PDP for different reasons. But we can summarise it by saying they went to other parties to get automatic presidential tickets. So, if they returned to PDP, they must accept that getting selected as a presidential flagbearer requires a democratic process, as is traditionally done. The party can negotiate to include the policies these leaders advocate for in the manifesto of any candidate who wins the primaries. The public would also like to see an opposition party articulate moving from consumption to production, good governance, and even providing education, security, and water supply.

Lastly, these leaders and the whole opposition base should consider that some party aspirants have already started publicising their intentions, directly or indirectly. We should also acknowledge that the public sees other candidates as more favourable than the group that contested in 2023. There could be candidates who can negotiate a one-term presidency without asking the National Assembly to review the constitution. There could be candidates who have demonstrated credibility and can be seen as those who would return the country to normalcy.

But whichever way we look at it, unseating APC requires a united opposition that puts aside personal ambitions for the collective goal. Contestants should accept that APC is the problem and should be voted out. Whether through mergers, alliances, or strategic returns to the PDP, time is running out. Failure to do so risks repeating the mistakes of past political alliances, which will keep the incumbent government in power.