What if Tinubu doesn’t contest in 2027?

By Joshua Ocheja

I recently stumbled on a concept. It is called counter-factual history. “It is a form of historiography that attempts to answer the What if? questions that arise from counter-factual conditions,” according to Wikipedia. The dynamics of politics in Nigeria are counter-factual. There is always the what-if question in analysis and outcomes. It is easy to see many claiming to have won the election. Then, the slogan of “he will contest again” is the medium of solace in waiting for the next electoral circle. What if Tinubu doesn’t contest in 2027?

Counter-factual history is “conjecturing on what did not happen, or what might have happened, to understand what did happen.” How would the election play out? President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had a single ambition to become president and not necessarily a two-term president. He worked assiduously towards it for many years. He built bridges across the divide. He negotiated. He made pledges. He granted concessions. And he became president. Even when the odds were against him. He would want to replicate the Nelson Mandela example to make history as the only president who didn’t seek a second term in office.

I was in a conversation with a friend, and he mentioned that he saw a billboard that had President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his wife with the 2027 slogan. I told him it might not necessarily be the idea of the president, but an attempt by political merchants to lure him into the race again. The president sees and recognizes obstacles from a distance and he is not known to go into any fight he can’t come out victorious. In 2027 many variables would play out. A glimpse could be seen at the end bad governance protest. It was a message to the president about his rating in the north. In 2027, the third force would come from the north. This is why he won’t go into the race.

His strategy for the All Progressive Congress (APC) to win the presidential election is getting a young and bustling candidate from the north and not a (Hausa-Fulani). But a northerner whom the Hausa-Fulani can not reject. The vice presidential candidate would be a brilliant mind from the southeast who is well respected and known as an advocate of south-eastern interests.

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We might see regular faces as standard bearers of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). There would be a third force party from the North as a protest. The implication is that the North and the East would be in a dilemma—the dilemma of choice. The south-east would likely go for the bird at hand, recognizing the incumbency advantage the APC has. It would be a case of once bitten twice shy. After Nnamdi Azikiwe and Alex Ekwueme, the south-east have not been lucky despite several attempts.

The PDP would try to balance their equation by going for a counter-strategy by picking a south-easterner as a vice presidential candidate, too. That would leave the LP in a dilemma. Picking a northerner as a vice presidential candidate would be of little impact because of the limited choices. The third-force from the North might jettison the idea given the prevailing circumstances and with the tendency that their lot would be better with the APC for religious reasons. The APC still had the advantage and won the election. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ate his cake and had it. He retires to Lagos, and life continues for him. His involvement in national politics would be greatly reduced. At least, he has joined the league of former presidents with the benefits accrued for life.

It would signal a new era of politics. The majority of the old order would retire. 60 years and above might struggle to make an impact. The agitation for youth involvement would be rife. The new president, himself a young person, would easily relate to the demands and pressure to score good political points to advance the acceptability of the administration. There is also the psychological aspect to it, and the excitement would be palpable among young people below the 60-year age bracket.

The losers would be sensational, and that would usher in a gale of retirements from active politics. The narrative would change completely, and the aces of the LP candidate would reduce tremendously because the youth constituency, a critical support base, would have switched camps. There would be no need for another shot at it. It might also bring about a retirement.

Please don’t forget that this is counter-factual history. It might be the case or not the case. But my instincts tell me it might be the case because of the many battles the president is fighting. He must have bruised many egos with his style of governance and possibly the political choices he must have made. He doesn’t seem apologetic about it. He had what he always wanted. He created history and it can not be reversed. The 2027 presidential elections will be very interesting and tenacious politics will play out. There would be a winner and losers, and lawyers would be disappointed. This is the counter-factual history of the 2027 presidential election.

Ocheja, a military historian and doctoral researcher, is an alumnus of the Nigerian Defence Academy.