What did you think?

The world is undergoing the type of radical geopolitical realignment that happens with the ending of an era. With the Global South asserting itself and demanding a voice in the global scheme of things, a lot of dust is being kicked up in the air and the multipliers. Another “Scramble for Africa” is clearly in the offing given its untapped potential. 

The “Francophone Spring” is an instructive testament to this radical change, with former French vassals escaping its orbit and charting a new course of self-determination.  

Ambitious multinational industrialists and politicians have spared no efforts in the past two decades looking for ways to establish international competitiveness and growth in Africa through the identification of products and production systems that can underpin rapid development of a competitive economy.

Studies have shown that opportunities abound for farmers and IT entrepreneurs in Africa to gain international competitiveness, especially in light of projected stronger world markets for agricultural commodities over the long term and the growing ubiquity and role of information technology in the agricultural value chain. This provides reasons for optimism regarding the future prospects for agriculture as a major source of inclusive growth in many parts of Africa. This is the Africa that is up for grabs. 

For the most part, we have the technological revolution that is still afoot to either blame or thank for these new narratives. With the revolution taking its course, the “Old Guard” global power politics is being overthrown, as their stranglehold on global pop culture and way of thinking has been eroded while the liberalisation of the mass media and the dissemination of information kicks into top gear. As they manoeuvre to finally wake up, Africans are becoming more politically and culturally aware than their peers in the affluent Global North. 

The tumultuous mass uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya a decade ago have seized the attention of media analysts who have characterised these as “Arab revolutions”, a perspective given weight by popular demonstrations in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria and elsewhere.

However, what has been given less attention were the concurrent uprisings in Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Mauritania, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, Western Sahara and Zimbabwe.

The uprisings across Africa and in the Middle East, are the result of common experiences of decades of declining living standards, mass unemployment, dispossession and impoverishment of the majority, while a few have engorged themselves with the collective wealth of the people. What did they think will happen? 

And now with the “Francophone Spring” sweeping across West and Central Africa, another dimension is being added to the question of where Africa intends to place itself as it finds its footing. Almost all African countries with the notable exception of Nigeria, and perhaps Kenya, are turning their backs on the West.  

Military coups were a regular occurrence in parts of Africa in the decades after independence. But after a period of relative democratic stability, they are back -and with a bang! What is going on? History, that is what’s going on. The takeover in Gabon is just the latest in a string of coups that have taken place in recent years coming just a month after soldiers took control in neighbouring Niger. There were two in Burkina Faso in 2022 as well as failed coup attempts in Guinea Bissau, The Gambia and the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe. 

Two years ago, there were six coup attempts in Africa, four of them successful. Last year, a senior African Union official, Moussa Faki Mahamat, expressed concern about “the resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government,” and this year, President Tinubu is picking up the gauntlet and leading the democratic counter-attack. 

So, what did they think will happen? A study by two US researchers, Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne, has identified over 200 such attempts in Africa since the 1950s. About half of these have been successful. 

The overall number of coup attempts in Africa remained fairly consistent at an average of around four a year between 1960 and 2000. This is not a surprise though, given the instability many countries experienced in the years after independence. African countries have had conditions common for coups, like poverty and poor economic performance. When a country has one coup, that’s often a harbinger of more coups. We have seen this in the case of Gabon, where a coup attempt against Ali Bongo who took over from his father in 2009, precipitated more and more until one succeeded.  

What did they think? If yesterday’s coup did not work, more attempts would be expected. Ali Bongo is the typical African ruler. Given African cultures and their histories, African governments as well as their resources were effectively the fiefdoms of the ruling families. Ali Bongo succeeded his own father and has been manoeuvring to really succeed his father… in becoming a life ruler too. The election on Saturday and its outcome must have been beyond bonkers. And that is the sad ending tyrants, who just take and keep taking until they take too much, should expect.  

So, what did you think will happen? Nature is a closed system of cause and effect. These two are directly proportional to one another, and any disruption will bring forth a balancing act that will decimate one end of the loop for the benefit of the other. President Tinubu does not need to grandstand and rattle the sabre to get things back in order in West Africa.  

The only sure way to arrest this spiral is to address the cause not its effect. Tinubu can provide an even more impactful leadership by leading the charge to fix the “African usual suspects” – the rule of law, sustainable livelihoods, social services, human rights, et al.  

Storming Niger Republic would most likely only confound our problems.