Wars are prosecuted on budgets, not just on proclamations. While Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu requested but failed to secure the Senate’s authorisation for military action against the Nigerien coupists, many Nigerians are not aware of any budget backing that request.
The truth is that any military action declared today by ECOWAS will in all probability be shouldered disproportionately by Nigeria, the Big Brother in the region. Nigeria will be the biggest financier in all aspects, including men and equipment. And just in the same way, Nigeria stands to bear the biggest consequences of such a war. That is not going to be an easy task for this country given its current standing, financially, socially and even militarily.
Which other countries will contribute significantly to the ECOMOG troops or whatever name the region chooses to call them now, both financially and militarily? Let’s look at the biggest two countries in the region.
Take Ghana, for instance. How much do you think the former Gold Coast nation will be able (or willing) to dish out now, given the current economic condition prevailing there? Ghana is grappling with a financial crisis that has seen its economic indicators nosedive, with the country currently in talks with the IMF for a $3 billion bailout. So, who will authorise an extra budget today to fund a war against Niger? Even if they do, how much will they be willing to give in terms of financial contributions, military personnel, equipment, etc?
Nigeria is currently in a state of social and economic instability, the type that can hardly fund an obviously unnecessary war right now. The current budget (2023) carries a deficit of N11.34 trillion, representing five per cent of the country’s GDP. It is already known that this deficit will be financed chiefly through borrowing from both domestic and external sources. Some amounts will also come in via privatisation of assets.
Borrowing has become an albatross hanging on the Nigerian economy, and it is doubtful whether we can fund a war budget through borrowing, especially external borrowing. If that wouldn’t fly, perhaps the government would be forced to turn to the CBN for more Ways and Means borrowing!
How will a country that said it could not afford to fund a petrol subsidy turn around now to say it has the war chest to be part of an invasion of another country, no matter how small we think that country is? We could not afford to phase out the subsidy withdrawal, the government told Nigerians. Are we now going to fund the war in phases or in full? Whichever option we take, will it make sense to Nigerians, who are now cringing under the weight of the subsidy withdrawal? The president has appealed to ordinary Nigerians to tighten their belts to go through the hard times. The war will heighten, not lessen it.
Is this just a question of the notion of our sense of power, pride and a Regional Power who will not stomach any nonsense, whatever that might be? If it is, could we just pause a bit and do some introspection: Are we really that big and powerful in the eyes of our neighbours?
To quote a Ghanaian friend, Yao Graham, lawyer and publisher of Public Agenda newspaper, in a February 1998 interview I had with him in Accra: “There are some notions of national prestige that are inflated.” This might just be one of such inflated images of ourselves. Granted, someone could argue that our president spoke in his capacity as ECOWAS chairman, but a counterargument to that could be that another chairman from another country at this point in the region would most likely not consider this military option.
If that war does hold, Nigeria will bear the most cost, financially, militarily, human cost; and, above all, in terms of the social and economic dislocation it will bring this nation.
According to World Bank’s records, the Russia-Ukraine war has pushed at least seven million Nigerians into abject poverty. That is a war that is being fought several thousands of kilometres away from us. How much more do we think a war with Niger, a country that is most likely to be supported by several others, cost us and push more Nigerians into poverty? In all probability, part of that war will hit Nigeria, in different parts, going by various scenarios that are being painted.
With the prices of most goods and services at an all-time high, a war involving Nigeria and Niger will push most goods beyond the reach of most Nigerians. Poverty will rise to a new level in the country. Food supplies will dry up. The country’s fractured production system, both industrial and agricultural, will take a hit that will be hard to overcome. If Nigerians are crying now over petroleum subsidy removal, that will be child’s play from what the war will bring upon the populace.
Where is the budget for the war? Or, are we going to fight first and plan for the war later? Where is the Minister of Finance and his/her Minister of State to coordinate the War Budget plan? Or is it the Office of the Budget alone that is drawing up the budget? You see, the whole thing throws up more questions than answers right now.
But, whether we like it or not, ECOWAS has already declared war on Niger. What remains is a military action. The region has imposed sanctions, including a no-fly zone order, the impact of which is already being felt by the aviation industry. As part of the sanctions, Nigeria has also cut electricity supply to Niger, which accounts for about 70% of electricity consumed by that country.
Nigeria’s electricity supplies to Niger typify good neighbourliness, enlightened self-interest, and economic cooperation. The power supplied to our northern neighbour is from dedicated transmission lines from Kainji Dam into Niger. According to one analyst familiar with the arrangement, “It has been so for decades, just to discourage Niger from constructing a dam within their own catchment of the Niger Basin”. Had Niger built such a dam, hydro-power generation in Nigeria would have been difficult, and of course, electricity in Nigeria would be much more expensive than it is currently.
Now under the new dispensation, “anything is possible,” the analyst warns. Niger pays for this electricity consumption, although the rate is said to be ridiculously low in relation to the cost of electricity in Nigeria. That is all part of economic diplomacy.
Now this diplomacy and the bilateral arrangement are about to change. It is highly inconceivable that Niger will hold back any longer from constructing its own dam. Already, in Niger Republic, the Kandhaji Dam with 130MW capacity, upstream of Kainji Dam, is said to have been completed and is scheduled to become operational in 2025, one industry source has disclosed.
Even after Niger returns to civilian rule, that country will not forget what has happened. So Nigeria must begin now to prepare for a day when we will wake up to notice that the Republic of Niger, whether under military or civilian governments, has obstructed the flow of River Niger down to Nigeria.
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