Waiting for government’s poverty figures

Figures on poverty have become part of the government’s propaganda machinery.  Incoming administrations highlight what they describe as unacceptable levels of poverty, and go ahead to declare poverty reduction as part of their goals. This is not a Nigerian thing; it is global. The number of poor people, positively impacted or lifted out of poverty through policies and actions of governments, has become an image booster for public officials and the administrations they represent. 

They use such figures  tell stories that suit their objectives by swaying the minds of the poor, who are always in the majority, in any case.  

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Recently, the Minister of Transportation, Mu’azu Jaji Sambo, took up the role of dishing out the government’s poverty figures and obviously expected a clap from Nigerians.  In a recent statement, the minister said the government is set to generate 21 million full-time jobs and lift 35 million people out of poverty by 2025. 

He went on to claim that Nigeria’s transportation sector is setting the stage for achieving the government’s commitment of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years. 

Any experienced reporter at that event would have known right away that Sambo’s speech was a typical example of feel-good statements that public officials give at such events.  

The claims by the government about the number of people it will lift or has lifted out of poverty have become quite difficult to prove and substantiate. 

When the government says it has lifted a given number of people out of poverty, it has the burden to show where the lucky ones are now. Are they still outside of the poverty grip, or have they relapsed into the trap that previously held them? This column has previously described poverty as a trap, quoting eminent economists who have painted it in that light. What has happened to that trap and its power to hold millions of Nigerians? 

The tragedy of this liberation from poverty is that it is in many instances short-lived, almost an illusion. In fact, some of those who are said to have been lifted from poverty soon return to their former status, which means that in practical terms there was really no change. The experience of some of them is just like a prisoner who is set free but gets re-arrested before he gets home. 

Rather than give Nigerians false hope based on sterile numbers lacking in realism, our ministers and indeed all who have the responsibility of managing the economy should concern themselves with delivering value to the citizens. 

When the minister of transport told Nigerians that his ministry was poised to deliver millions of them from the grip of poverty, nothing could be farther from the truth. Today, Nigeria’s decrepit infrastructure is part of the factors responsible for poverty in the country. Nigeria’s high food inflation is caused in part by a poor transportation system, which many economists blame for as much as about 50 per cent of the rise in the cost of food.  

Food inflation rose to 23.72 per cent last month, from 18.34 per cent a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this tells us that the factors driving food inflation are yet to abate. The poor road network in the country hinders easy and timely evacuation of agricultural produce, hence the high rate of post-harvest losses, which has been put at about 50 per cent in some cases, that our farmers experience. How will farmers escape the fangs of poverty if they cannot sell the product of their labour? 

Today, inflation is one of the stubborn factors driving Nigerians into absolute poverty, the World Bank has amply demonstrated with figures.  This year, the bank has told that at least seven million Nigerians will be pushed into poverty this year as a result of inflation. If we factor in the fact that the bank predicated this figure on a lower inflation rate of about 15 per cent, it then stands to reason that at the latest figure of 21.09 per cent, a lot more people are on their way to extreme poverty in 2022. 

What this means, in simple terms, is that several millions of our compatriots will be unable to feed well this year because higher prices of goods and services, especially of food items, have taken the food beyond their reach. If the current trend continues, many out of Sambo’s projected 35 million people have been pushed into poverty before help comes today. 

The truth is that the minister of transport, like many of his counterparts, has work to do before he leaves office in May, and he should pay attention to that. There are many federal roads that are impassable right now, and the state of such roads has cut millions of Nigerians from being part of the national economy. 

 His colleague, the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Shamsuna Ahmad, gave a realistic speech on Monday at the Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja. She declared that Nigeria’s consistent growth as recorded in the GDP has failed to make a positive impact on the lives of its citizens. Her speech could have been made eight years ago, and still be relevant. That means that structurally, this economy still needs much work to be done on it. It is almost impossible for those who have been left behind by the growth train not to be listed among the poor in the country. Another name for the poor in the society is those who have been excluded from the mainstream economy. 

The phenomenon of growth without development has been part of Nigeria’s tragedy. So, any talk about lifting people out of poverty, as long as this persists, is mere politicking.