Tinubu’s coldest war

In June 2022, Senator Bola Tinubu took to the stage in Abeokuta, Ogun State, amidst rumours of a conspiracy to eliminate him from the APC presidential primaries. The former Lagos State governor addressed the gathered delegates with a confident “Emi lo kan,” emphasizing his contributions to the party and asserting his deserving position as a potential presidential flag-bearer of the party. This audacious display, paired with the fervent endorsement from his would-be running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima, in a widely-analysed Channels TV interview, set the tone for an election predicted to be hijacked by certain powers in Abuja. Their resort to blowing the whistle before the crime was, at first, dreaded as the end of the road for them, but it garnered the intended sympathy, resulting in a convincing victory against formidable odds. 

The same historic town is the venue of Tinubu’s enigmatic declaration last week, while canvassing for votes ahead of the forthcoming elections. He aimed his words at “the traitors who wanted to contest with us,” reminding his audience of his innocence in their economic struggles. “Let them increase the price of fuel,” he declared, adding that “only they know where they have hoarded it.” In reference to the timing of the Naira redesign, Tinubu proclaimed with confidence, “Their plans will come to nothing. We are going to win.” With his bold words and unwavering resolve, Tinubu sought to rally the voters of Abeokuta to his cause. 

Tinubu’s actions and words in Abeokuta were a response to the prevalent attempts to thwart his political aspirations. These events brought to light the perceived lack of gratitude for the sacrifices he made in support of President Buhari, including using his extensive resources to secure Buhari’s victory in the 2015 primaries held in Lagos, where Tinubu held significant influence. Additionally, he stood steadfastly by President Buhari in the face of the formidable challenge posed by Atiku Abubakar of the PDP in the 2019 elections. 

But the most significant obstacle in Tinubu’s political journey remains unnamed, for political expediency. This individual, none other than President Buhari himself, seems to have been at Cold War with Tinubu. Despite Tinubu’s support for Buhari in previous elections, the president failed to repay the favour ahead of the presidential primaries last year. Moreover, Buhari’s recent implementation of policies and programmes that negatively impact the masses, seemingly done with ease, can be attributed to his lack of presence on the ballot paper this year and his motives are not difficult to discern. 

President Buhari had seven years to authorise the redesign of the Naira notes, but instead chose to do so during an election period, despite the potential consequences of inciting public anger towards his government. This calculated decision is seen by some as an attempt to undermine not only the general voting public, but also the presidential candidate of his own party. The fashion in which the Central Bank of Nigeria’s governor, Godwin Emefiele, has implemented the new and scarce Naira notes in the midst of widespread public opposition, further confirms the perception that Tinubu is alone in this war to advertise himself as the best option for Nigeria. 

During the midpoint of President Buhari’s first term, there was an expectation for him to sign the Electoral Act Amendment Bill into law. However, he hesitated, as some of the provisions in the bill could potentially harm his chances of re-election. He waited until after he was re-elected before giving his assent. The fuel subsidy regime was also on the brink of ending due to the global instability of oil prices, but as Buhari had an election to win, he refrained from removing the subsidy. 

President Buhari is well aware of the impact of anti-people policies on elections. However, as this particular election does not directly involve him, he has displayed a marked indifference towards its outcome. His sudden disregard for the electoral prospects of his party through these ill-timed policies and programmes may be an attempt to demonstrate his self-serving nature to Tinubu, but it has also revealed him as a false progressive who merely feigned support for the masses. Despite this, the masses were too consumed by sectarian sentiments to see through his true intentions, which are now becoming increasingly evident. 

The blade Buhari brandishes at Bola Tinubu is a two-faced weapon. Despite being willing to play down the electoral ramifications and cast aside his former ally, the other side of this weapon cuts open his true nature: a selfish and entitled individual who exploits the suffering of the less fortunate without any genuine intention of alleviating their hardship. The notion that he stands in solidarity with the masses has been nothing more than a facade, and it is shocking that it has taken until now for the truth to become apparent to a majority of the population. 

The protesting youths who, according to reports, pelted Buhari’s motorcade and chopper with stones during his visit this week to Kano chose the wrong time, medium, and avenue to demonstrate their anger. The North, unfortunately, has no moral justification to hold Buhari to account with only a few months left in his eight-year reign. His trademark indifference to national tragedies and grievances now is as dreadful as it was ahead of the 2019 elections, and, despite that, he was given a second chance overwhelmingly across the region. It’s one perplexing case of Stockholm Syndrome that is now coming to a close. 

Buhari’s misreading of the Nigerian room cannot be attributed solely to the idolising support from the North, including the youthful protesters in Kano. It must be shared among those who have allowed his actions to go unchecked and excused his excesses. This enabling attitude is the reason he’s operated in an insulated environment, oblivious to the pleas, frustrations and cries of a nation that yearns for his presence and voice when they matter. Buhari’s last dance is painful to watch because he’s not the same advertised ascetic his enablers met in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019. This Buhari no longer dances to impress. So, the protest in Kano is as ill-timed as recolouring the Naira. The youths in Kano were merely asking to board a plane that had long taken off. 

Tinubu’s good fortune in this long and winding road to Aso rock lies not only in his ability to recognise President Buhari’s self-interest before he officially announced his intention to succeed him, before reminding his party that it’s “Emi lo kan” season,” but also in his prior establishment of a strong network of allies and a formidable political pedigree to lock horns with his major challenger, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. He’s not the only individual in Nigeria having a bitter taste of Buhari’s peculiar loyalty, the vast majority of Nigerians are also left to regret their unwavering support for his serial presidential dreams.