Tinubu: Hurdles before a kingmaker eying the throne

The race for the 2023 presidency took a new dimension last Monday when the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, set the ball rolling with the announcement of his intention to contest for the country’s plum seat.

Since his disclosure to President Muhammadu Buhari at the Presidential Villa Abuja, the former Lagos State governor has become the most talked-about politician in the country. Issues around him – negative and positive – have been dominating the social media even as news stories and articles about his person flood Nigerian national dailies.

The declaration by Ebonyi State Governor Dave Umahi, 24 hours after, through the same channel and at the same place, could not dwarf the discussion around Tinubu, the Lion of Bourdillon.

Asiwaju is regarded as the kingmaker in the APC by virtue of the role he played in the emergence of Buhari in 2015 and his influence in the South West geopolitical zone, especially Lagos State, where he has been producing the occupants of the Lagos State House since 2007, when his second term lapsed.

While most of those who served as governors between 1999 and 2007 have lost their relevance in the political terrain, Tinubu has maintained his and even spread his tentacles to other parts of the country. His inroads into other parts of the country, pundits say, is to actualise his lifelong ambition for the presidency.

However, to actualise it, analysts say he must overcome some hurdles.

Getting Buhari to key into his bid

During his recent interview on Channels TV, President Buhari, without mincing words, said he does not care about who succeeds him. Specifically, the president said, “2023 is not my problem; I don’t care who succeeds me, let the person come, whoever the person.”

The statement punctured reports that there was a power-sharing understanding between him and Tinubu before the formation of the APC.

Observers of the political scene, however, say for Tinubu’s ambition to sail through, he needs to get the president to key into the project. But reports from the villa showed that the president’s body language is not favourable to the candidature of the former Lagos State governor.

“Frankly, the thinking here is that he has been compensated for his efforts in 2014/2015 with the position of the vice president and others,” a source around the president once said during a discussion on Tinubu’s ambition.

Another villa source said at all cost, Tinubu needs to recruit the president’s nephew, Malam Mamman Daura, for his project.

“Don’t mind what he (Mamman) said on zoning in 2020, Asiwaju needs to reach out to him. The president listens to him more than any other person,” he said.

Decimating the 3Bs plus M

In the last 19 months, the affairs of the APC have been under the control of three governors plus a minister. Since June 2020 when the Adams Oshiomhole-led National Working Committee (NWC) was dissolved, the party has been under the grip of Mai Mala Buni (Yobe), who chairs the caretaker committee; Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), chairman of the Progressives Governors’ Forum (PGF) and Mohammad Badaru of Jigawa State. The Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, is said to be part of the clique of the three governors.

According to analysts, the decimation of this clique now known as 3Bs plus M, is the second hurdle, the former Lagos governor needs to scale through to actualise his ambition. It is common knowledge in the party that the clique has gone far in their bid to edge Tinubu out from the race.

Party sources said the delay in the conduct of the national convention was part of the plot by the three governors.

To reduce their influence, those familiar with the politicking in the party, said, “It is either he gets the convention conducted or he gets the Buni-committee dissolved as soon as possible.”

Zoning/micro zoning

Since the country returned to civil rule in 1999, power had been rotating between the northern and the southern parts of the country, though not on any constitutional basis.

However, insiders say the delay in the conduct of the APC convention is part of the plan to open the presidential contest to all.

Although the Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Raji Fashola, had last year said there was an agreement to rotate the presidency between North and South at the formation of the party, there have been controversies over the issue in the party.

At the moment, sources say there are clandestine moves to leave the presidential ticket open to all, including aspirants from the North.

The representative of youths in the 13-member national caretaker committee of the APC, Barrister Ismail Ahmed, in a recent interview, said the attention of the party was on balancing not zoning.

“You know this zoning issue has never been a thing like that. You shouldn’t forget that APC is not very big on zoning. It is very big on balancing, not necessarily zoning.

“Because in our 2014 primaries, if you remember, December 2014 when we had primaries that President Buhari emerged, there were five people that contested for the presidency.

“Only two of them were from the same zone, all the others were from different political zones – Atiku Abubakar (North East); late Dr. Samuel Nda Isaiah (North Central); Rochas Okorocha (South East) and former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano State and President Buhari (North West).

“It was a hotly contested election,” he said.

Pundits say Tinubu needs to get the ticket zoned to the South and micro zoned to the South West for him to have an upper hand.

APC was formed in 2013 following the merger of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and new PDP (nPDP).

Running mate/Muslim-Muslim ticket

Who will be Tinubu’s running mate, should he pick the APC ticket? These are key questions nagging the minds of those promoting his candidature in the North and those who are against it.

The main reason that stopped Tinubu from becoming the running mate of President Buhari in 2015 was his faith. Spirited efforts for him to be considered were thwarted at the last minute when many chieftains of the party kicked against a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Hence, he was given the opportunity to pick a Christian. This led to the emergence of Professor Yemi Osinbajo as Buhari’s running mate.

A similar scenario is playing out. Top shots in the party, especially governors, who want to be his running mate, are Muslims.

“This is one of the reasons two blocs in the party are against his candidature. So, who will he pick? If he picks a Muslim, it would affect the fortunes of the party at the poll. Likewise, if he picks a Christian, it will not fly,” a member of the party said.

Health challenge

Opponents of the candidature of the APC national leader are also using the issue of health to de-market him. They are warning against a repeat of the Buhari experience. In his first tenure, President Buhari frequented London for medication, where he spent months on one of such trips.

Between August and October last year, Tinubu was in London for medical attention. Both Buhari and Tinubu were in London for medication issues last year. While Buhari was there for some days, Tinubu spent months.

Buhari even visited the former Lagos governor. It was after the president’s visit that Duchess Mews, Portland Place, Central London home of Tinubu became a mecca of sorts as his political godsons, admirers and supporters thronged there to visit him.

Though allies of Tinubu said he went for knee surgery, those against his aspiration are putting forth some other prognoses. Meantime, political watchers are stressing the need for the former governor to clear the air on his health condition.

But a board member of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), Senator Magnus Abe, dismissed insinuations by some people that Tinubu was too old and too sick to become the next president, saying age is not necessarily a factor in leadership.