The Return of Rebranding

Nigerians and friends of Nigerians everywhere know that never has the country been in as much danger as it is today. 

“Today” is the Muhammadu Buhari era.

In six-and-a half years under the former military leader, Nigeria has moved from a country with enormous potential, purpose and pride to a fractious, nervous, hungry and angry one.  Nigerians voted for Buhari in 2015 with the sole task of moving the country from the path of a directionless and greedy political elite to another in which policy and resources will galvanize the people.

With only 18 months left of his administration, the country has become far more divided and insecure than it has ever been.  In Buhari’s Nigeria, no citizen who steps out of his home is certain he will be able to return to it.  No citizen living in his home is certain he will make it through the night.

The economy has virtually collapsed, with the naira suffering its worst value level since it became the national currency.  Criminals of various shades run the countryside, the highways and the cities as citizens huddle indoors at dusk.  Abuja, the federal capital, is on alert.  Kidnappers or militants, who routinely abduct whomever they wish, sometimes sacking entire villages and imposing taxes, are rumoured to be lying in wait in the Federal Capital Territory itself.

How bad is it?  Police work appears to have been redefined as protection for the rich and powerful, not for the maintenance of law and order as it is everywhere else.  Governance is now simply wholesale propaganda and pretense.  Prior to Buhari, it is true that nothing worked, but Buhari now runs a government which is far more helpless than the people, and where the concept of failure is a badge of pride.

That is why there is an emerging strategy in which, beyond blaming its predecessors, the government insists on massive foreign loans and in begging the world to come and save Nigeria.

The latest peg in this strategy appeared last week, first with Buhari in France and then with an appearance on television the following day, of Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed.

Appearing at a high-level event called the Nigeria International Partnership Forum (NIPF) on the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum on Wednesday, Buhari sought to recruit investors by telling them that he has revitalized Nigeria’s economy, built massive infrastructure, and uplifted the living standards of Nigerians.

The NIPF received no publicity in Nigeria, but one newspaper said the objectives were to “attract investment to Nigeria, bridge existing infrastructure gaps, spotlight Nigeria’s immense trade and investment opportunities” as well as—wait for it—“reset false and distorted narratives” about the country.

Buhari cited what he described as his administration’s increasing investments in capacity building, health, infrastructure, women’s empowerment, climate change and food security.

“Today, these actions are yielding self-employment, expanding our human resource pool and strengthening our national productivity for sustainable development,” he said.

So well-organized was the event that there were no Nigerian reporters present, and no copies of the speech were distributed ahead of time as is the normal practice.  It is no surprise that the foreign media showed no interest in the event.

Nonetheless, following Buhari’s performance in Paris, Ms. Ahmed appeared on Channels TV on Thursday to celebrate their government.

”I think this government has been unfairly assessed and unfairly treated,” she said of a government with no known standards.  “The government of President Muhammadu Buhari has done extremely well.”

Her argument: “If you look at the growth indicators of the country, they are all positive.  Things are improving. It’s just that people want to see improvements like between today and tomorrow.  It doesn’t work like that because the degradation didn’t happen overnight.”

In other words, Buhari’s predecessors are responsible for the rot, and that Buhari distortions mean nothing.  The problem is that all of this represents the exact “false and distorted narrative” the government says it is fighting.

It is Nigeria’s version of the Big Lie that Buhari is doing well, and nothing demonstrates it any better listening to top officials speak in generalizations when they should be using data to demonstrate their claims.

The only time Buhari referred to any numbers in his speech, he was trying to demonstrate the level of the loans and investments he wants to enable him to fund his taking of the country in the other direction.  He cited “massive infrastructure expansion” in various sectors since he took office allegedly to elevate the living standards of Nigerians.

“1.5 trillion dollars is the cumulative amount estimated to be spent within a period of ten years from 2015,” he said, a figure he first mentioned one week earlier at a COP 26 side event in Glasgow.

Pay very close attention to that: $1.5 trillion for 10 years, meaning $150 bn per year.  In that sense, and only in that, Buhari would be right to speak of “massive investment” were such an investment made by him since he took office.

Has he?  On what infrastructure has he spent the estimated $900bn which he suggests in the last six years?  Which of the projects he has proposed or started has been completed?

Similarly, what are those “growth indicators” that Minister Ahmed spoke glibly about, and where is the statistical evidence which confirms that a nation which has grown very little food in the past three years on account of herdsmen violence or banditry or militancy or official negligence does not now face imminent famine?

Where are the numbers which confirm that the nation’s inflation and unemployment numbers are descending demonstrably?  How are vast numbers of children out of school a “growth” indicator?

Buhari told his French audience that his actions are “yielding self-employment, expanding our human resource pool and strengthening our national productivity for sustainable development.”

These cliches are embarrassing, partly because prospective investors are always better educated.   Where is the database on employment, including self-employment?  How do Nigerians self-employ when there is no electricity and no roads and no certainty that were you to travel to Point B, you would be able to return to Point A?  This is a daily Nigerian reality.

How insecure is Nigeria?  Let me put it this way: which of the prospective French investors in that hall would take the bait of Buhari’s own Katsina State, where legislators testified in tears recently that 32 of the 34 local council areas have been overrun by bandits?  Who wants to invest in a country where the leader would not speak out against violent herders?

Certainly, the world can see that Nigeria has been overrun by serious problems.  If Buhari’s advisers want to be fair to their principal—if not to their country—the least they must tell him is that the world identifies him as Nigeria’s biggest menace.

Yes, Buhari retains the power over speeches, but he has divided where he should multiply and multiplied where he should deduct.  He has forgotten what Nigeria means.  Trying to paint over his serial errors of policy and management makes everything worse.

If there is a path back, this is where it must begin.

• [This column welcomes rebuttals from interested government officials]