The protests: A cost-benefit analysis

“Never beat a snake when you have not seen its head”. African proverb

In the next few days, the nation will know the fate of the protests that have become the  major focus of a citizenry that had been on the verge of resigning to living in a nation that promises much and delivers little. As things stand, both the state and the protesters, who marched out two weeks ago and rekindled hope that the Nigeria police is capable of being reformed, are losing.

The leadership of President Buhari was made to make concessions under intense, popular pressure, but these concessions had merely opened the door for more demands.

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The protests themselves have registered success in terms of their initial objectives, but they  risk losing ground to other interests owing to poor strategies and inadequate appreciation of the complexities of the context of the protests. These historic protests and the unusual responses of the state under an administration that rarely stirs to disturb the status quo should not be consigned to our pile of history of failed attempts. It is vital that the nation harvests its values, and learns major lessons, which should feed governance and citizen-state relations in the future.

If these protests fizzle out because interests outside its core objectives of improving levels of accountability of leaders and state institutions have taken over and provided the state with an excuse to muzzle it out of existence, its achievements could be at risk of being reversed by leadership and state institutions that are basically resistant to substantive change. That will be a real tragedy because young Nigerians need to know that they can make their nation notice them’ real reforms of vital institutions of governance such as the police are desperately needed; and the utility of lawful  resistance against impunity and poor governance would suffer a major setback. The nation would have missed a historic opportunity to get leaders to appreciate the consequences of indifference and bad governance.

There is an existential threat to these protests: those who are still pursuing an agenda for police reform and improvements in the quality of governance are losing the initiative to others with motives that are radically at variance with their own goals.

It could be explained by the absence of good strategy, but organisers of the #EndSARS campaign do not appear to have paid much attention to the need to build an engagement process and reduce damage to exposure to many interests that have scores to settle with the administration.

The state could sit back and watch as public outrage and fear among the public replace hope and faith in changes, and then move in to clear criminals and sundry interests who are taking over these protests by the day.

There will still be a price the state will pay in the short term: civil society will protest at strong state response; the international community will condemn trampling on citizens’ rights; and violence against the state and criminal activities against citizens may dig deeper than the state anticipates. The nation could go through a prolonged, violent process as it attempts to assume the higher moral ground to protect citizens and national security and stability.

These protests have exposed the many weaknesses of a nation dealing with concerns over how its plurality and cumbersome structures could be addressed to improve the manner groups live and relate with each other.

The commencement of the #EndSARS campaign revealed the many elements of a nation with two characteristics  that Nigeria has been. Young people stood up to demand an end to a police unit with many enemies and few admirers in major cities in the south, while young people in the north marched out to demand improvements in the manner northern communities are protected against Boko Haram insurgency, banditry and kidnapping. Ordinarily, there ought not have been a problem with this, but the parallel protests and their concerns virtually spoke of a nation that could not look beyond its limitations.

There were no bridges between these protests. In fact, at a point it became politically incorrect, even subversive, to acknowledge the other campaign, unless it was to give it   negative political colour. The common area of the protests, which is social media platforms, will depress any Nigerian who still nurtures the hope that young Nigerians will not be afflicted by our virulent ethnic and religious stereotyping and pedestrian profiling.

The sharp edges in the #EndSARS campaigns were blunted by #SecureTheNorth campaigns. Fringe campaigns that were more explicit in their political tones were countered by others specifically intended to counter them. What could have been an uprising to address the rights of all Nigerians to security, protection and justice was fractured as much by a state that knew where lines were weakest, as by pre-existing conditions that should worry those who believe that the nation has a future as a united, caring entity with a level playing field for all citizens.

There have been positive outcomes from these protests that must be translated into more tangible benefits in the long term. Policing as a key instrument of governance has been subjected to serious scrutiny, and it is vital that vigilance over substantial reforms is maintained. Deeper questions regarding adequacy, professionalism and suitability in a federal framework should be major components in the changes which should be brought to policing.

The unprecedented levels and types of threat to communities in the northern part of the country have also been elevated to new heights,, and the commendable efforts of the youth who chose to focus on the region most deserving in terms of improvements in the security of communities must not be consigned by history as a failed attempt by our young to demand serious and urgent changes in the security of northern communities.

It is important to place on record that youths in Katsina State and a few other parts of the north had made efforts in the past to invite attention to the state of their communities, but were dispersed and sent back to continue to live with bandits and kidnappers. This is the moment to acknowledge these young people as heroes who did not wait for an uprising to start in the south before they demanded action.

This is also the moment to inform President Buhari, in the event that he does not know, millions of northerners believe that he has sharper ears for voices from the southern part of the country than the north. Even for a president with two years to the end of his second term, this should be a major source of worry. Young northerners have marched out against the failure of his administration to protect northern communities. They should not make this a habit because his administration has no answer to the insurgency and collapse of security institutions in the north.

These protests have reminded us that Nigeria is indeed a nation of young people. Some data claim that 65% of us are below 35 years of age. Yet we run the nation with scant attention to the needs and potentials of our young. Now we know: the young can only be ignored at great peril.

There is already serious damage done to our young population that is bitter, ill-prepared for a productive future, isolated from all systems and processes that are vital to their development and perception of their country and now, as we see, ready to close the country down unless they are listened to. The protesters and the thugs who clash with them, the graduates among them and the illiterate, unskilled young who tag along, the students who are tired of staying at home from educational institutions and even offspring of privileged worried about living lives caged by desperate age mates now demand a country that acknowledges their needs and not only meets them but creates space for them in all important matters.

The nation needs to approach these protests, or what is left of them very carefully. They must be prevented from worsening the difficult circumstances under which we live, but they must translate into tangible achievements in the longer term. There will be interests that will benefit from tying the state down around skirmishes. Governments need to combine tact, resolve, and an enlightened approach in dealing with them. The nation will lose all the values that have accrued from the initial protests if it loses the battle to bring these protests to an end in a manner that suggests that it is learning important lessons from them already.