The political endorsement phenomenon – so far

Endorsements can improve voter education on national and local candidates, leading to better-informed voting decisions. Many voters choose rational ignorance when voting for candidates because the cost of getting informed about politicians and politics can be very high.  

One explanation for choosing rational ignorance is the polarisation of voters. Partly for this reason, political candidates deliberately seek endorsements from well-known individuals and groups and carefully reveal them at critical points throughout their campaigns. 

Nigeria’s politics is divided across religious, ethnic, regional, and political party lines, making it more expensive for voters to be informed. That is why voters identify endorsers who share their interests and those they follow.  

Endorsers are held in high respect across the country. They are expected to endorse politicians, policies, and causes because they are seen to be credible, trustworthy, likeable, and persuasive. Rational citizens are also paying attention to the credibility of endorsers, and they will discredit any group or individual who is inconsistent or acting against their interests. 

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From the South, one key endorsement was the declaration for Atiku by Chief Arthur Eze at the Ofala festival with Governor Charles Soludo and other traditional rulers. Arthur Eze thought that the appropriate candidate from an Igbo ethnicity who should be president of Nigeria is Soludo. Rightly so, anyone following the country’s economic policies would crave a person like Soludo. Arthur Eze’s choice is a long-term plan for someone who could benefit Nigeria. For him and his group, endorsing anyone would scupper the chance for Soludo, which could happen in the next cycle. The Igbo elder and his group are inclined to maintain their position to support the PDP.  

Prince Eze’s endorsement has divided opinions and diluted the endorsement made by Ohanaeze Ndigbo under the banner of Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum back in November. The forum comprises Afenifere, PANDEF, and Middle Belt Leaders. Another endorsement that divided voter opinions came from a faction of the Afenifere group as they declared for their son, Bola Tinubu.  

At the time of writing, President Obasanjo’s endorsement remains the latest and is critical for Peter Obi’s voters. His support was documented in a six-page letter targeting young Nigerians. I found the letter’s content is beyond the scope of young voters. The method of communication is not designed to reach them, and only a few have the patience to read more than 280 characters.  

On his credibility, Obasanjo’s antecedents with the younger generation are not usually pleasant. His hateful relationship with his own children, like Gbenga and Iyabo, comes to mind. Iyabo’s letter to her egoistic and selfish father was not pleasant. Anyway, Obasanjo is a controversial figure, and his endorsement came without the support of other military elites.  

On the northern front, the endorsement of Yakubu Dogara and the APC northern christian group has been heard and is already changing the course of PDP in the region. The exception of the group is the enigmatic Babachir Lawal, who was sacked from the Buhari government for grass-cutting contract controversy. He decided to endorse Peter Obi when Tinubu declined his request for a ministerial post. His interview on VOA Hausa and Channels exposed his lack of credibility and consistency. 

The Izala group, JIBWIS, is expected to make an endorsement. However, the group’s chairman, Abdullahi Bala Lau, is already causing controversy by hinting that they have an endorsement in mind. Likewise, Kabiru Gombe. Both are thought to have an opinion similar to Babachir Lawal, only that they are inclined towards Tinubu. The Deputy Chairman of JIBWIS, Sheikh Yusuf Sambo Rigachikun, hints that a northern candidate should be the preferred candidate. Unlike Lau and Gombe, Sheikh Sambo seemed to speak on issues and interests that the average uninformed voters wanted to know.  

The above endorsements are just the beginning. As the election date approaches, more endorsements are expected. The Christian Association of Nigeria and other large church organisations are yet to use one united voice to endorse any candidate. The James Ibori group is yet to make an endorsement, which will potentially enlighten the South South voters.  

The prominent northern groups are expected to endorse one candidate as they did when they invited six presidential candidates in October 2022 under the aegis of Arewa Joint Committee. The endorsement of this group will definitely shape the picture of voting in the three northern geopolitical zones. The groups will include nods from former heads of state and other retired military elites. 

One key endorsement that the rational voters are no more looking forward to is the one by the disgruntled G-5 governors – Wike, Ortom, Ikpeazu, Ugwuanyi and Makinde. Even though Wike said he would reveal who they will be supporting in January, the excitement and the influence they once had is waning. The media reports that they were in London to close a deal with Tinubu were debunked by the APC presidential campaign team.  

The belief that the G-5 are governors without focus and direction is gaining traction. Their decision-making, or lack thereof, shows that they cannot specify what they don’t want. Likewise, their flirtation with all four presidential candidates has demonstrated that they don’t know what they want. Of course, it is a democracy, and they are not wrong to act that way.  

The average rational voter, who follows their press conferences and dance-drama, is convinced they are not acting in people’s common interests. Similarly, any principled politician with a decent following will try to avoid a public strategic alliance with them. With hindsight, one can understand why Atiku decided to move forward without them to pursue relevant alliances.  

Therefore, endorsers need to be aware that voters want to hear their endorsements but rely on consistent information from them. They may fool some voters, but the average voter will pay less attention to those who have lost credibility.  

N.A.