I was at the 21st Daily Trust annual dialogue which was held last week Thursday, January 25, in Abuja and from the vibes that came out of the event I did not get the sense that anyone who attended felt upbeat about the discussions that featured.
We must give kudos to the Media Trust Group for keeping faith with its annual forum going for over two decades now engaging Nigerians on the various topical issues that collectively constitute the national question. This year’s event was no less appropriate considering the uncertain socio-economic situation we currently face in the country.
The theme of the event ‘Tinubu’s Economic Reforms: Gainers and Losers’ took place against the background of the bearish trend in the economy with inflation recording at 30 per cent and the naira plummeting to an all-time low of N1,400 to the US dollar.
The cast of panelists featured former Planning Minister Dr Shamsudeen Usman, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, NLC President Comrade Joseph Ajaero and a former Director General of Abuja Chamber of Commerce, Dr Victoria Akai.
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Unfortunately, Finance Minister Wale Edun for some inexplicable reason chose to stay away from the event. He neither sent a representative nor an apology for his absence to an event he had consented to attend. It was such a shame because as chief priest of the Tinubu economic agenda, this was a gilt-edged opportunity to, not only unfold the details of the agenda, but also to provide necessary clarity on some of the vexing issues in the economy.
There is a growing consensus that some of President Tinubu’s appointees are unconscionably arrogant and tend not to feel obliged to engage the public on the issues that come under their purview as public officials. As Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun is in the eye of the current vortex of economic currents coursing through the Nigerian economy. Thus, it behooves on him to engage as much as the occasion demands to explain where the economy is headed and how we can navigate the economic headwinds that we are likely to face in the coming months.
For Minister Wale Edun, it was not just an opportunity lost to preach the Tinubu economic gospel, it is a confirmation of the incompetence of the president’s economic team in dealing with the consequences of the economic agenda foisted on Nigeria by the administration.
Indeed, the theme of the dialogue ‘’Tinubu’s Economic Reforms: Gainers and Losers’’ is a misnomer of sorts. The current economic agenda is not an original idea from the president. It is rather a standard economic template developed by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which countries like Nigeria are required to implement in their quest for financial assistance from international lending agencies.
President Tinubu had to implement the template due to the fact that he met a depleted state of financial resources. And for him to effectively run his administration he needed to approach the lending agencies for assistance and for this, he had to meet their conditions. And it is these conditions his administration is implementing now which are erroneously tagged ‘’Tinubu Economic Reforms’’.
If the ‘’reforms’’ were truly the product of President Tinubu’s original thinking, they could not have been implemented impulsively and surreptitiously as he did. The president would have engaged with segments of the Nigerian society first to consolidate the various ideas and strategies that would emanate from these engagements before sitting down with foreign lending agencies to negotiate what form and scope the assistance will take.
Because as it is, President Tinubu is implementing economic policies which are largely one dimensional and mainly for the purpose of advancing the interest of the lending agencies, he cannot possibly tweak these policies to reflect the interest of Nigerians who are the victims of the policies.
So, the exchange rate could tumble down to as low as possible, inflation could rise as high as can be President Tinubu cannot possibly lift a finger to correct them in the interest of Nigerians, because his administration will be denied access to credits and financial assistance.
Basically, and in reality, President Tinubu’s hands are tied and the World Bank and IMF which are the clearing houses to the International Finance institutions, who are the real owners and authors of the ‘’Tinubu Economic Reforms’’, will not ‘’agree’’ for him to reverse the punishing effects of the policies. Indeed, they will insist he squeezes the more.
But President Tinubu should also blame himself for falling into this quagmire. He placed more emphasis on adhering to the dictates of the lending agencies than is necessary, neglecting the fact that when the chips are down it is the Nigerian people who are currently feeling the harsh effects of the policies that would determine his fate eventually.
Let us not continue to labour under illusions that it is only by following the dictates of World Bank and IMF that we can develop our country. These two institutions came to being only in 1945 and before then countries have been cutting their path to development. Even with the coming of these two, many countries have become developed without them. China the second largest economy in the world today did not go through them. Malaysia under Mahathir shunned them. Iran has been under hundreds of sanctions but has been able to develop its domestic economy and compete in many areas of endeavour globally.
Even countries that engaged the two institutions, took time to develop and articulate their economic policy directions with which they negotiated their financial and economic engagements. Indonesia had its own homegrown political and economic principle of engagement with foreign partners and entities called Pancasila. Turkiye too. The Brazilians, Mexicans, Argentines, and South Africans always had their own plan B on such engagements.
In the end, we are all losers in the current economic climate because it is our collective future that is at stake. If we do not think and act for ourselves, somebody else will do so to our own collective detriment.