Shipping confidence hits 30 month low

Respondents to the survey identified over-tonnaging as the biggest factor behind the fall in confidence, expressing concern about the effect on the industry of lower oil prices and the growth of investment by financiers from outside shipping.
Falling oil prices were another recurring theme among respondents, one of whom warned: “The trickle-down effect of cutbacks in the oil sector will result in a decrease in business across the board for companies in the shipping industry.”
In February 2015, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.5 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high), down from the 5.7 recorded in November 2014.
This is the lowest figure since August 2012, and compared to the record high of 6.8 when the survey was launched in May 2008.
Charterers recorded the biggest fall in confidence, down to 3.9 from 5.4 in the previous survey.
Confidence on ship owners also went down (from 5.5 to 5.4), while that for managers was slightly up, from 6.1 to 6.2.
Confidence in the broking sector was unchanged at 5.0.
Geographically, confidence was down in all main areas covered by the survey.
The survey revealed that the likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next twelve months was down on the previous survey, on a scale of 1 to 10, from 5.3 to 5.1, the lowest figure since February 2012.
Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping Industry Group, said: “Shipping is doing its best to live up to its reputation as a highly cyclical industry. Confidence has fallen to its lowest level for two-and-a-half years, having been at its highest for six years in first-quarter 2014.”