Will Boko Haram disarm this year?
It claimed “credit” for the most shocking events of 2011, including the first suicide bombing in Nigeria’s history, at the Police Headquarters in Abuja in June. The Jama’atu Ahlus Sunnah Lid’dawa’ti wal Jihad, popularly known as Boko Haram, also took responsibility for the bombing of Abuja’s United Nations Building in August; for the horrific Christmas Day bombing of a church at Madallah, Niger State; for two major assaults against Damaturu, Yobe State, for numerous bombing and shooting incidents in Maiduguri and for a string of spectacular bank robberies.
Will Boko Haram disarm this year in the face of widespread local and international condemnation of its violent campaign and the disowning of its agenda by leaders of the Nigerian Muslim community? The chances are remote; Boko Haram’s leaders remain faceless and have so far shown no inclination to enter into a dialogue. Unless government and the security agencies have a hidden ace up their uniformed sleeves…
Will Jos find peace this year?
The Plateau State capital has been described as the Ground Zero of Nigerian inter-communal carnage. Between 2001 and 2004, there were several major clashes between the city’s Christian and Muslim communities, leading to the death of hundreds of people. However, a clash that ensued after disputed local government elections in late November 2009 has since snowballed into a near-permanent tit-for-tat inter-communal clash. As the year 2011 ends, there is a lull, except for sporadic “vengeance” attacks on some villages, as well as the Christmas Day attempt to bomb a church in Jos. Community leaders in Jos are however scrambling to find a peace formula and they even signed a “peace deal” last week. Jos may know peace for the first time in a long time.
Who will govern Adamawa, Bayelsa, Sokoto and Cross River States?
Five of the nine states that stood by when all other states conducted gubernatorial elections last April are having their turn between November 2010 and April 2011. Kogi has already held its election, which was won by PDP’s candidate, the former Nigeria Airways pilot Capt Idris Wada. Next in line to hold the elections are Adamawa in January, Bayelsa in February, Sokoto in March and Cross River in April, this year.
Unlike in Kogi, where Governor Ibrahim Idris did not run, incumbent governors are eligible to run in the four other states. All four of them are PDP members. Bayelsa’s Timipre Sylva has been schemed out by his own party, but Adamawa’s Admiral Murtala Nyako and Sokoto’s Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko have already won their party’s tickets. While Nyako faces a major challenge from CPC’s General Mohamed Buba Marwa and AC’s Marcus Liti, Wamakko faces a lesser known ANPP candidate backed by former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. It remains to be seen if any incumbents would be toppled.
Will EFCC bite this year?
Last November, President Goodluck Jonathan unceremoniously sacked Mrs Farida Waziri as Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, a year before her term ended. Waziri, a retired Assistant Inspector General who once headed the police’s anti-fraud unit, was appointed by the late President Yar’adua to a four year term in 2008.
She was succeeded as Acting Chairman by her Director of Operations Ibrahim Lamurde, himself a serving police officer. EFCC has been prosecuting at least a dozen high profile corruption cases under Mrs. Waziri, most of which are stalemated in the courts. While EFCC blames defence lawyers’ tactics as well as the judges for the stalemates, the judges often blame EFCC for poor investigation.
What will happen this year? Will Lamurde, who was also the Director of Operations during the tempestuous Nuhu Ribadu years, deliver the Bulldog-sized bite that Nigerians want to see? Or will he soon give way to another permanent chairman? If so, who?
What will happen to election petitions in Benue, Akwa Ibom, Kebbi, Borno, Oyo, Kano, Kwara, Kogi?
As the New Year begins, many dicey governorship election cases are inching their way through the courts. The Supreme Court handed the final ruling in the presidential election last Wednesday, affirming President Goodluck Jonathan’s victory.
The Benue and Akwa Ibom cases were returned to tribunals by the Supreme Court to hear them on merit, and the Borno case was also sent back to the tribunal by the Appeals Court, though the Supreme Court must decide that too. The snag is that the time prescribed by the amended Constitution within which all election cases must be disposed off by the tribunals has elapsed, so what will happen?
Kebbi State’s was the only governorship election annulled by a tribunal, on the grounds that INEC tendered ballot box and ballot paper distribution lists outside the forms prescribed by the Electoral Act. Last Thursday however, the Appeal Court reversed the ruling.
How much will petrol cost this year?
Apart from security, nothing agitated the minds of Nigerians in 2011 quite as much as the prospect of higher petrol prices this year occasioned by the “removal of subsidy” by government.
Although President Goodluck Jonathan looks quite determined to carry through with the controversial policy, the take off date was still hazy as 2011 ended. No money has been provided for subsidy in the 2012 budget, but then, it would take weeks or even months before this budget becomes law.
What will be the new petrol price when subsidy is removed? No one is sure, but a close look at the Petroleum Products Pricing and Regulatory Agency’s [PPPRA] template suggests something like N135 a litre, to begin with…
Will Salami’s limbo end this year?
President of the Court of Appeal Justice Isa Ayo Salami has been languishing at home since August, when President Jonathan approved a request by the National Judicial Council [NJC] to suspend him from office pending the conclusion of a court case he instituted against NJC and the Chief Justice.
Salami’s case has barely started at the High Court, and is expected to snake its way up to the appeal and supreme courts. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking for the 68 year old Salami, who is due to retire from judicial service in 2013.
Could his case be resolved outside the courts? Very unlikely, since current Chief Justice of Nigeria Dahiru Musdapher has indicated that he wants it to be resolved by the courts. In which case, Salami could be in for some more waiting.
Will the Nigeria Stock Exchange wake up this year?
The Nigeria Stock Exchange has been comatose for four years now. Since 2008, when it took a flying nose dive, allegedly due to the world-wide economic crunch, it has not looked up.
Changes have since taken place at the NSE, with the departure of controversial long-time director general Ndidi Okereke-Onyiuke, but that did not change the market’s outlook. Bank stocks that went for 50 naira in 2008 fell to under two naira in some cases and stayed there. Many companies’ stocks now sell slightly above their nominal value of 50 kobo. Investors lost billions of naira; market capitalization fell from 13 trillion naira in 2008 to 6.4 trillion naira today.
Will the stock market finally look up this year? Not many think so.
Which presidential candidates will emerge?
Nigerian politicians are known to be perennial early starters. Even though President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice President Mohamed Namadi Sambo still have 41 months to go before their tenure ends, trust some aspirants to begin lacing up their boots this year for 2015.
Who could these be? General Ibrahim Babangida has indicated that he is through with running, but former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who recently made up with Adamawa State governor Murtala Nyako, is still keeping his political machinery well oiled. CPC leader General Muhammadu Buhari, who said he won’t run again after 2011, recently said something about remaining in politics till the end.
Many other ambitious men and women are already waiting in the wings to take a shot at Aso Rock in 2015. They include many state governors who have finished or will finish their terms by then. Dr Bukola Saraki, Orji Uzor Kalu, Rotimi Amaechi, Ahmed Makarfi, Muazu Babangida Aliyu, Muhammadu Danjuma Goje, Sule Lamido, Isa Yuguda, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, Adams Oshiomhole and Babatunde Raji Fashola are being mentioned. However, if Jonathan respects his pledge in Addis Ababa to stay out of the 2015 race, the big masquerades could be Vice President Namadi Sambo, Senate President David Mark, ACN leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, and an anointed Buhari successor…
What surprise will Okonjo-Iweala spring again?
Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was the Finance Minister who convinced then President Olusegun Obasanjo to lap up some $16 billion “excess funds” earned by this country during the Second Gulf War crisis of 2003 to pay off Paris and London Club creditors, after some discount. It was a controversial policy, repaying debt rather than investing.
When she bounced back last June as Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, not a few Nigerians expected some unpopular, IMF-like social policies to make a comeback as well. It was not long before the Presidency embarked on its highly unpopular policy of removing petrol subsidy, at the Coordinating Minister’s behest.
In what direction should Nigerians look this year for some more trimming of government’s social spending? Look in the direction of electricity tariffs, fertilizer subsidy, work force “right sizing,” etc.
Will “Occupy Lekki” succeed or fizzle out?
Nigerians are very good copycats. With Egyptian youths occupying Cairo’s Tahrir Square and with restive Western youths trying to “Occupy Wall Street” and other major centers of financial power, Nigerians were looking for something to occupy.
It wasn’t long before Lekki came along. The Lagos State government and private investors had built a costly express road leading into the Lekki Peninsula and was looking to recoup the investment through a toll plaza. Motorists didn’t like it one bit, and they alleged a shady deal between Governor Raji Fashola’s government and the private company.
Soon, an “Occupy Lekki” movement had sprung up at the toll plaza, but it was already weakening as 2011 ended. It could fizzle out pretty soon.
Will the naira look up, or nose dive?
The naira took a whack in the banks and in the bureaux de change in its exchange rate to the major currencies in the later part of 2011. For many years until 2010, the naira had held fairly steady against the dollar, at about 119 naira. Then it slipped precipitously, until it stabilised at about N155 to the dollar on the black market.
In the last three months, it began to slip again, and the Central Bank said at a point that it could no longer continue to shore it up in the face of rising demand for the dollar. As 2011 ended, the naira had hit 163 to the dollar on the black market and is still falling. The danger of another precipitous fall this year is all too real.
How long will the ASUU strike last?
Members of the Academic Staff Union of Universities [ASUU] have gone on strike more times than anyone can remember in the last 20 years. Nigerian university teachers once went on strike against General Yakubu Gowon; they struck twice during President Shehu Shagari’s tenure, and went on strike for extended periods under Generals Babangida and Abacha.
ASUU also went on strike many times during President Obasanjo’s civilian tenure, signed a deal with his regime, but struck many times over implementation of the agreement. ASUU has gone on strike even when its own members rule Nigeria; it struck against President Yar’adua, a former Chemistry lecturer, with whose regime it signed a deal in 2009. ASUU says the deal was not implemented, so it is now striking against President Jonathan, a former Zoology lecturer. What are the issues at stake? Most Nigerians don’t know.
Who will be PDP’s next chairman?
The ruling Peoples Democratic Party [PDP] is expected to hold a national convention early this New Year to elect new national officers. Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, who was elected to lead it in 2008, was pushed out by President Jonathan in 2010 because he advocated rezoning the presidential ticket to the North.
Dr. Okwesileize Nwodo, who was anointed by Jonathan to take over as chairman, was pushed out on the eve of the party’s convention in January last year for alleged disloyalty to Jonathan. Dr Bello Haliru Mohamed, who then took over, was made the Defence Minister and had to abandon the post to former secretary Abubakar Kawu Baraje.
Now, at least a dozen people are lined up to contest for the top post. They include acting secretary Dr. Musa Babayo, publicity secretary Prof Rufa’i Alkali, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, Prof Jubril Aminu, former governor Ahmadu Mu’azu, Alhaji Hassan Adamu, etc. Who will clinch the job? In line with PDP’s dubious tradition, Jonathan will anoint one…
Will Jonathan rediscover his “goodluck”?
When he was campaigning in 2010-2011 to secure a fresh presidential tenure for himself, having completed the late President Yar’adua’s term, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan’s strategists made much of his name. He was presented as the man upon whom luck was always smiling.
That he became deputy governor by luck, governor by luck, vice president by luck, acting president by luck and full president by luck. Well, after securing his full term last April, Jonathan’s run of luck appeared to have ended. It took him weeks to name a Cabinet. His proposal for a single seven year presidential term landed him in hot soup. Boko Haram and other violence escalated during his tenure, and his government is now up against a majority of its citizens over plans to remove petrol subsidy. He isn’t very lucky any more.
After Adeniyi, who will write the next tell-all book?
Nineteen months since President Umaru Yar’adua’s death, his former spokesman Olusegun Adeniyi went public with a tell all book. It described sensitive policy meetings that took place under Yar’adua and who took what position on what issue. Since many of the main figures in the Yar’adua era, beginning from Dr. Jonathan still wield considerable power, some experts said the book should have waited another ten years.
Who will write the next tell all book? All eyes are now on President Jonathan’s spokesman Dr Reuben Abati. The secrets of the Babangida era have not yet been told by Brigadier General Haliru Akilu. And former National Security Adviser Sama’ila Gwarzo has not yet divulged the secrets of the Abaha era. Nor has Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi revealed all the secrets of the Shagari era.
Which sections of the Constitution could be amended this year?
The Constitution of the Federal Republic 1999 has had more stitches than an almajiri’s loin cloth. Some sections of it were amended back and forth in 2010 and 2011 to enable INEC to have more time to conduct the general elections. A whole bunch of amendments were forwarded to state assemblies by the Senate late in 2010, and most of them saw the light of day.
Right now, President Jonathan wants an amendment to provide for a 7 year presidential term, hopefully beginning with him. Senate President Mark wants an amendment to create new states, hopefully including an Apa State for the Idomas of Benue. Local Government chairmen want an amendment to abolish joint accounts. Some NGOs want an amendment to abolish state electoral commissions. And Boko Haram wants an amendment to abolish the Constitution…
Will CPC renew itself this year?
Rancour and finger pointing have been the name of the game within the ranks of the opposition Congress for Progressive Change [CPC] since the end of last year’s general elections. Many state party leaders blamed the party secretariat for the rancour that attended the party’s legislative and governorship primaries in some key states such as Kano, Katsina, Kaduna and Bauchi States. The party’s pioneer chairman Senator Rufa’i Hanga has been sniping at the party from the sidelines, distracting it with a court case and critical barbs.
Last month, party leader General Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated a 100-member committee on party renewal. It is headed by former FCT Minister Nasir el-Rufa’i, once a staunch PDP member. Some party members complained that el-Rufa’i was not the right man to “renew” CPC. But then, the results would soon show.
Will Mugabe survive the next election in Zimbabwe?
Back in 2008, Mr. Robert Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since the end of illegal White settler rule in 1980, had his ZANU-PF party beaten in the first round of parliamentary elections by Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC party. In the midst of economic collapse and political chaos, the situation was somewhat salvaged when the two antagonists were coaxed into forming an uneasy coalition government.
Elections are due again in Zimbabwe this year, and already tensions are rising. Tsvangirai and MDC see Mugabe and ZANU as stumbling blocks to the realization of democracy and economic prosperity; Mugabe sees Tsvangirai and MDC as Western-backed puppets sent to subvert national independence and the gains of the long liberation struggle.
Mugabe, who is 87, is set to stand again in presidential elections. If he wins, he could be running ruling his country well into his 90s, approaching the dubious record once set by Malawi’s Hastings Kamuzu Banda and Tunisia’s Habeeb Bourguiba.
Back in 2008, Mr. Robert Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since the end of illegal White settler rule in 1980, had his ZANU-PF party beaten in the first round of parliamentary elections by Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC party. In the midst of economic collapse and political chaos, the situation was somewhat salvaged when the two antagonists were coaxed into forming an uneasy coalition government.
Elections are due again in Zimbabwe this year, and already tensions are rising. Tsvangirai and MDC see Mugabe and ZANU as stumbling blocks to the realization of democracy and economic prosperity; Mugabe sees Tsvangirai and MDC as Western-backed puppets sent to subvert national independence and the gains of the long liberation struggle.
Mugabe, who is 87, is set to stand again in presidential elections. If he wins, he could be running ruling his country well into his 90s, approaching the dubious record once set by Malawi’s Hastings Kamuzu Banda and Tunisia’s Habeeb Bourguiba.
Will the eurozone crisis affect Nigeria?
International Monetary Fund [IMF] is the international agency most distrusted by Nigerians, and when its managing director Cristine Lagarde came calling last month, Nigerians’ guards were up.
Yet, the public message delivered by the former French Finance Minister made many Nigerians to sit up and listen. She urged the Federal Government to take steps to protect this country from possible spillover effects of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Certainly we ought to listen. The way Greece has tottered, the way Spain and Italy are tottering and the way the ever proud Europeans are going cap in hand to the Chinese for a loan, Africans ought to listen…
Will the guns fall silent in Yemen and Syria?
The street revolts against authoritarian rulers that first broke out in Tunisia later swept many Arab countries throughout 2011. While they led to the relatively peaceful departures of President Zine Abdine ibn Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, civil war resulted in Libya, Yemen and Syria.
In Libya, the uprising ended when the rebels killed Colonel Muammar Gaddafi with much help from NATO. In Yemen, after a lot of bloodshed, President Ali Abdallah Saleh agreed to relinquish power to a caretaker regime and elections are now scheduled. But in Syria, the bloodshed continues unabated. The powerful Syrian Army has stood resolutely behind President Bashir al-Assad, and an Arab League mission has just entered the country to monitor developments.
With the rebels unwilling to give up and with NATO unwilling to intervene in Syria as it did in Libya due to fear of the Syrian army, the streets of Damascus, Homs and other cities could be in for some more bloodletting yet.
Can Putin make it back to the Kremlin?
Vladimir Putin is set to become the 21st Century Tsar of Russia in succession to the Romanovs, albeit an elected one. At first it looked to be a piece of cake; having gained immense respect in the country as prime minister and then as president in 1996 to 2005, Putin succeeded in appointing his crony Dmitry Medvedev as president.
Now, after 5 years, Medvedev is supporting Putin to bounce back to his old job, this time for another ten years. Putin’s United Russia party won only a slight majority of seats in the State Duma in last November’s elections. Then trouble broke out as protesters took to the streets, alleging rigging. All of a sudden, the new tsar’s plans look to go awry.
Will Kim Jong-Un make it in North Korea?
The Kims have been the Communist world’s only ruling dynasty. When North Korea’s founding president, “The Great Leader” Kim Il-Sung died in 1994, he was succeeded by his son, “The Dear Leader” Kim Jong-Il, who died last month.
Soon after Kim Jong-Il’s death, the official North Korean media referred to his son Kim Jon-Un as “The Great Successor,” and still later as “The Supreme Commander” of the country’s million-man strong, nuclear-armed armed forces.
Still, it remains to be seen if Kim Jong-Un, who is only about 27, will be able to assume full control of his ancient and secretive homeland.
Who succeeds Hu Jintao in China?
You don’t get to see the leaders of the Communist Party of China campaigning on the soap box American style, kissing children, making promises, engaging in televised debates or reading opinion polls. Yet, 2012 is another year of leadership change in China. The stakes cannot get higher than this, because the Chinese economy overtook Japan’s to become the world’s second largest in 2011 and could overtake the United States in the next 30 years. Only China has the money right now to lend to bankrupt European governments.
Hu Jintao is expected to step down this year as General Secretary of the Communist Party, Chairman of the Central Military Commission and President of the Peoples Republic of China to make way for a new generation of rulers. Who is likely to succeed him? Quite likely, the current Premier Wen Jiabao or Wu Bangguo, the second highest ranking member of the Politburo Standing Committee. But then, you never know with the Chinese.
Who will win the Africa Cup of Nations?
When the 28th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations tournament opens in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea later this month, five of the countries regarded as the giants of African football will not be there. Nigeria, Cameroun, South Africa, Algeria and Egypt all failed to make it into the finals.
Who then will win this year’s cup? Look in the direction of Ghana, Cote D’Ivoire or Senegal, the heavies among the ones that will be there. But at least three other countries are poised to pull a surprise. Zambia, Mali or Morocco could yet clinch the trophy.
What happens to Africa’s big son Obama?
All of Africa and most of the world as well exploded in wild celebration in November 2008 when Barack Hussein Obama, son of a Kenyan exchange student, was elected the first black President of the United States by a landslide. The excitement has since waned, with the realization that beyond symbolism, Obama’s occupancy of the White House has had few tangible benefits for Africa.
In November this year, Obama will be up for re-election, and the continuing economic difficulties of the USA have dimmed the prospects for the president and his Democratic Party. Obama could yet make it to the second term because the Republican Party has so far presented a very dull First Eleven against him. Leading the field right now is former US Congress speaker Newt Gingrich, a man once described as “the Robin Hood of the 1990s, who robs the poor and gives to the rich.”
