It has become necessary, amid the on-going alignments and re-alignments by political forces in Edo State, to situate the critical factor of Captain Hosa Okunbo in the context of the politics and considerations that will shape the governorship battle so that the outside world is not misled into believing claims of manipulation after the incumbency factor must have been demystified to herald a change of leadership that Edo people want.
Some camp and certain individuals may disagree with my position; it is their right to do so. But such right, as well as the defence that sprouts from it, pales into insignificance in the face of weighty factual evidence attesting to a burgeoning political reality that change is inevitable. Consider the fact that there have been cracks in the government of Adams Oshiomhole and in the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the state due to poor management of victory by the comrade governor.
A vast majority of elements on both platforms have suffered some betrayals and alienations and are thus disenchanted. While some have been courageous enough to storm out of the government and the party, and have gone ahead to chart a trajectory to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), some have chosen to hang in there, suffering in silence, gripped by the real fear of survival outside government. The latter’s disposition would create the façade that all is well within the government whereas nothing could be farther from the truth.
If a governor chooses to put the state and the citizens on over-drive in the name of revenue generation through a harsh tax regime, for instance, and would embark on other pain-inflicting policies like demolition of structures and market stalls as well as high tuition fee (he just reduced it to N53,000 from N68,000 after upping it from the original N18,000 per session) in the Ambrose Alli University, what he is simply saying, in truth, is that he is leading and not the people; and that he could secure re-election in spite of them. After all, the people did not vote for him in 2007. He was a product of some curious judicial arithmetic that saw to the deduction and invalidation of Professor Oserhiemen Osunbor’s votes such that Oshiomhole ended up getting the more “valid” votes.
Today, more than three years in office, Oshiomhole is preparing to go to the poll as an incumbent governor to seek confirmation of his popularity or otherwise. In 2007, he got the total support of Okunbo, but now he would not need the political network of the multi-billionaire businessman and well respected Benin son, believing that he now has his structure (even though cracked) nor Okunbo’s heavy financial support since he now sits atop the public treasury as governor and could dip his hands into it at will.
Okunbo has a huge influence on the Grace Group (superintended over and funded by former Governor Lucky Igbinedion through his proxy, Izze-Iyamu). The group was the power base that produced and supported Oshiomhole as ACN governorship candidate in 2007. This network of political alliances is proving useful to Okunbo. He has been able to erect bridges of friendship and associations across the ACN and the PDP such that if he caves in to pressure and declares interest in the governorship on the PDP platform, support will come for him from both parties. His legendary generosity and catholic conviviality have put him at the commanding heights of massive political followership in Edo South Senatorial District which has about 58 percent of the state’s voting population.
He is said to be easily accessible to his people, ministering to their needs, a disposition which many in government lack. This places him at an advantage over many political figures in the Edo South Senatorial zone. But how does Okunbo want to maximize this political capital? Is he going to deploy it to his own advantage by entering the governorship race or is he going to deploy it behind yet another candidate whose credibility may be difficult to vouch for? Will he stake his reputation once more like he did in 2007 for Oshiomhole? In the game of politics, the only man to trust is oneself.
He has, as of the time of writing this piece, reportedly refused to cave in to pressure to take a shot at the governorship seat. Those piling pressure on him believe that his political network in Edo South, if it is well coordinated and combined with Chief Tony Anenih’s legerdemain and firm control of Edo Central as well as the likely protest votes from Akoko-Edo and Owan areas of Oshiomhole’s Edo North, will sound the death knell for Oshiomhole on July 14. Okunbo is also said to enjoy the confidence of the friendship of President Goodluck Jonathan; the National Leader, Anenih; and the Chief of Staff to the President, Chief Mike Ogiadohme, who is from Edo North Senatorial District.
The only reason Okunbo is said to be reluctant is that he does not want to abandon his local and international businesses for state governance. He relishes the politics of the boardroom where good thinking and strategy combine with economic wisdom to generate mega bucks, especially in dollar and pounds denominations. He is said to have incredibly massive interests in money generating ventures which he believes would suffer public perception deficit if he becomes governor as many may find it difficult to draw a line between the incomes from his businesses and management/expenditure of government funds. He is not the archetypal politician, who would enter a race to raise and make money there from. He is stupendously rich. He has been a benefactor to many politicians in the state. He therefore would not go cap-in-hand to persons in and outside Edo State for funding of his campaign if he decides to cave in to pressure to run. But a close ally of Okunbo with whom I discussed the forthcoming Edo governorship election said he (Okunbo) is more interested in backing a credible candidate in the manner of a kingmaker than personally seeking to be governor. So where does this leave the PDP, Edo State and Okunbo? Only time will tell.
Ojeifo is an Abuja-based publisher
