The latest phase of the Syrian conflict, which ultimately led to the ousting of Bashar al-Assad, began in 2011. This period marked the start of widespread protests and pro-democracy rallies across Syria, which were part of the broader Arab Spring movement. The conflict escalated into a brutal civil war that lasted for over a decade. However, al-Assad survived this, following the support he got from Russia and Iran.
Assad’s regime eventually fell when no one expected. The fall was a dramatic and swift, marking the end of over five decades of Assad’s family rule. The collapse began with a coordinated offensive by opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on November 27, 2024. This offensive started in the Idlib governorate in northwestern Syria and quickly moved southwards, capturing key cities and regions along the way.
The opposition forces, bolstered by support from other rebel groups and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, managed to capture significant territories, including the southern region of Deraa and the city of Homs. The regime’s military which was already weakened by years of conflict struggled to mount an effective defence.
As the opposition closed in on Damascus, the capital city plunged into chaos. The regime’s forces were in disarray, with many soldiers abandoning their posts and fleeing. On December 8, 2024, as opposition forces entered Damascus, Assad fled the country, seeking asylum in Russia.
The fall of Damascus marked the end of the Assad regime, with the opposition declaring victory on state television. The swift and decisive nature of the offensive, combined with the regime’s inability to maintain control, led to the rapid collapse of Assad’s rule.
Why Assad’s regime fell
The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria is a significant event with multiple contributing factors. It was the result of a combination of prolonged conflict, opposition consolidation, weakening external support, economic collapse, and military attrition. These factors, together with a decisive opposition offensive, led to the regime’s collapse and marked the end of an era in Syria’s history.
The regime, which had maintained a tight grip on power for over two decades, ultimately succumbed to a combination of internal and external pressures that had built up over the years.
One of the primary factors was the prolonged civil war that began in 2011. The conflict started with peaceful protests demanding political reforms and quickly escalated into a brutal civil war. The Assad regime’s harsh crackdown on dissent and its use of military force against civilians only fuelled the opposition’s resolve. Over the years, the war caused immense suffering, with over half a million people killed and millions displaced. The prolonged conflict drained the regime’s resources and weakened its military capabilities.
Another critical factor was the collaboration among the opposition. Initially, the opposition forces were disorganised and lacked a unified command. However, over time, groups like HTS emerged as dominant forces, consolidating power and coordinating efforts against the regime. The opposition’s ability to unite and launch coordinated offensives played a crucial role in their eventual success.
The regime’s reliance on external support also contributed to its downfall. Assad’s regime heavily depended on military, political, and economic support from key allies like Russia and Iran. However, as the conflict dragged on, these allies faced their own challenges. Russia’s involvement in Ukraine and Iran’s regional conflicts stretched their resources thin, reducing their ability to support Assad effectively. This weakening of external support left the regime vulnerable to opposition advances.
Another significant factor was the collapse of Syria’s economy. Years of war had devastated the country’s economy, leading to widespread poverty and unemployment. The regime’s inability to provide basic services and economic stability eroded its support base. Corruption and mismanagement further exacerbated the economic crisis, leading to widespread discontent among the population.
The regime’s military also faced significant challenges. Attrition in manpower, equipment, and morale weakened the Syrian army. Casualties, defections, and draft dodging reduced the military’s effectiveness. Underpaid soldiers resorted to looting to survive, and many young men evaded conscription. The army’s inability to control key territories allowed opposition forces to make significant gains.
What next?
The immediate priority for Syria will be establishing a stable and inclusive government. The opposition forces, led by HTS, will need to navigate the complexities of forming a transitional government that can gain both domestic and international legitimacy. This process will involve balancing the interests of various factions, including Kurdish groups and remnants of the old regime.
Besides, ensuring security and stability will be a major challenge. The country is deeply divided, with multiple armed groups controlling different regions. Syria now finds itself fragmented and divided among three dominant factions, each with external backers and distinct goals. The Syrian opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, now control central Syria, extending from the northern border with Turkey to the southern border with Jordan. Although they share a common religious identity, the Sunni factions have a history of internal conflicts, which could hinder their ability to form a cohesive government or maintain long-term stability.
The Kurdish groups control territory in northeastern Syria, bordering Turkey in the north and Iraq in the east. They continue to receive support from the United States, which has established military bases in the area. This support risks escalating tensions with Turkey, which views Kurdish empowerment as a threat to its territorial integrity.
Pro-Assad Alawite factions, primarily situated in the coastal regions of western Syria, maintain strong ties with Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group. These areas could serve as a stronghold for remnants of Assad-aligned groups after the opposition’s takeover, perpetuating sectarian divides.
The stark divisions among these groups, combined with the absence of a mutually acceptable mediator, suggest that Syria may now face prolonged instability and conflict. The swift fall of the Assad regime has left a power vacuum that various factions and external powers are eager to fill. This situation could lead to further fragmentation and violence, making it difficult for Syria to achieve lasting peace and stability.
Moreover, reviving Syria’s economy will be a critical task. The war has severely damaged the country’s economic infrastructure, leading to widespread poverty and unemployment. The new government will need to implement economic reforms, attract foreign investment, and rebuild key sectors such as agriculture, industry, and services.
Ultimately, the fall of Assad’s regime has shifted the regional power dynamics. Countries like Turkey, Iran, Russia, and Israel will play significant roles in shaping Syria’s future. Turkey, in particular, has positioned itself as a key player in Syria’s reconstruction, while Iran and Russia will need to reassess their strategies in the region.
World leaders have expressed a range of reactions to the current situation in Syria with Joe Biden, the US president, describing Assad’s ousting as a “fundamental act of justice” and a “moment of opportunity” for the Syrian people to build a better future. However, he also warned of the risks and uncertainties that lie ahead.
On the other hand, Donald Trump, the US president-elect, emphasised that the US should avoid involvement in Syria, stating, “This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved!”
Iran has reaffirmed its support for Syria’s sovereignty and called for national dialogue. The Iranian foreign ministry emphasised respect for Syria’s national unity and territorial integrity, urging an immediate cessation of military conflicts and the initiation of a national dialogue that includes all Syrian groups. Iran has also condemned Israel’s actions in Syria, accusing it of taking advantage of the situation to further its own interests.
Also, Turkey has emphasised that Syria must never be divided again and has warned against any attempts to compromise its territorial integrity. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Turkey will act against anyone seeking to destabilise Syria and has denounced Israel’s expansion into Syrian territory.
Israel has taken a more aggressive stance, conducting numerous airstrikes on Syrian targets. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel wants to establish correct relations with the new Syrian regime but will not hesitate to attack if it feels threatened. Israel’s actions have been condemned by several Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iraq, for violating international law and destabilising the region.
Meanwhile, Russia has called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting to discuss the developments in Syria, expressing concerns about the situation and the future of its military bases in the country.
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