The recent Supreme Court judgement resolving the crisis in Kano’s chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in favour of the state governor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, may have changed the presidential permutations of the party, Daily Trust on Sunday reports.
Before the final verdict of the apex court, the leadership of the party in the state had been sandwiched between the governor and the G-7, a group led by a former governor of the state, Senator Ibrahim Shekarau. This had made major stakeholders, especially those hoping to clinch the party’s presidential ticket, to be unsure of who to deal with.
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But analysts and political observers have noted that with the party’s structure now fully back in the control of the governor, presidential aspirants may well begin to mathematically calculate their chances should the party stick with its planned indirect election during the primary election wherein delegates will determine who flies the flag of the party at the February 25, 2023 presidential election.
At least leading aspirants like the national leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, and even Governor Badaru Abubakar of the neighbouring Jigawa State, all hope to have Kano in the bag if they are going to make any meaningful impact during the presidential primary.
Osinbajo met with the party’s delegates behind a closed door on Tuesday, while Tinubu met them on Thursday. Other aspirants, including a former Minister of Transport, Rotimi Amaechi, have also met with the delegates, just as they met with those in other states, but analysts believe they all hope to convince Kano delegates by any means possible.
Daily Trust on Sunday reports that Ganduje refused to endorse Amaechi on Wednesday despite the former minister’s plea for the governor to change his “known position.”
The importance of Kano delegates
Barring any last minute change, South West delegates are expected to be shared by all the aspirants from the zone, leaving the North West with the highest number of delegates as a major hunting ground for the aspirants.
With Kano alone boasting of 465 of the 7,800 delegates, the state, which has the highest number, represents a major win for any aspirant that can convince them.
And with the Supreme Court judgement now firmly putting the control of the party in the hands of the state governor, the delegates (except the six lawmakers that are members of the G-7) are expected to deliver a bloc vote for whoever has the ears of the governor.
The Ganduje-Tinubu connection
Although Governor Ganduje has not officially made any utterance that endorses the presidential aspiration of Tinubu, Daily Trust on Sunday reports that statements from the governor’s close allies and the romance between the former Lagos State governor and Kano State in the past few months point to who he would pitch his tenth with going towards 2023. For instance, the managing director of the Kano Road Traffic Agency, Dr Baffa Dan’agundi, while representing the governor at an event earlier this year, said northerners had no other presidential aspirant to support than Tinubu.
Speaking at the inauguration of an office for the Northern Youth Professionals for Tinubu, an organisation that supports Tinubu’s ambition, Dan’agundi explained that it became necessary for northerners to reciprocate the gesture of the people of the South West, especially the role played by Tinubu in 2015 when they supported Muhammadu Buhari to become president.
“Governor Abdullahi Ganduje is a part and parcel of this struggle, so we are with Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” he reportedly told the crowd.
Similarly, Hamisu Chidari, the Speaker of the Kano State House of Assembly, had also reiterated at different fora that the former Lagos governor had the support of the lawmakers.
Sources at the recently held APC stakeholders meeting in Kano, where the deputy governor, Nasir Gawuna, was endorsed for the governorship seat, however, said the governor had not discussed his preference in the presidential election with the stakeholders.
One of the sources said they believed the governor would do so in due course. He, however, said he was sure the governor would go with whoever the presidency would decide to support for the presidential ticket of the party.
Our candidate stands better chance in Kano – Osinbajo’s promoter
One of the promoters of Vice President Osinbajo’s presidential agenda in Kano, Hafiz Ibrahim Kawu, said they were confident that he had a good chance with Kano delegates.
Kawu, a former aide to the vice president and current member representing Tarauni federal constituency, told our correspondent that Governor Ganduje respected both Tinubu and Osinbajo and would respect the rules of engagement.
“Yes, I think the Supreme Court judgement is a very welcome development, especially in terms of Kano politics.
“Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje is an experienced and smart politician. He respects both Asiwaju (Tinubu) and the vice president. He equally respects the rules of engagement. I can tell you that the vice president has a very good chance because these delegates know his pedigree, profile, capacity and qualities, both as vice president and acting president. He has been involved in virtually all issues that affect Kano,” he said.
Kawu, who accompanied the vice president to Kano during the Hawan Daushe last week, said the he connected well with Kano people.
“He has visited Kano so many times in official capacity, to either commission projects or rejoice with Kano people when there was any issue. Recently, he was at the Hawan Daushe durbar. So he has a very good chance,” he added.
Also, Habibu Kila, the special adviser on media to Governor Badaru, said they were optimistic that his principal would not have a problem with Kano delegates.
Kila, who said he could not comment on a supposed affinity between Governor Ganduje and Tinubu because none of them had formally said anything in that regard, added that “there will be no problem” for his principal in Kano.
Nothing is given in politics, but Ganduje will deliver Kano for Tinubu if … – Fage
Professor Kamilu Sani Fage, a renowned political scientist, observed that with the influence of state governors’ on the decision of delegates, it is more likely that Kano delegates would vote in bloc, and Tinubu, who is believed to be closer to the governor would most likely get the support of Kano.
“Delegates don’t have independent minds. In most cases, they dance to the tune of either the power that be or the moneybags. So, I think that what is likely going to happen is that the governor would use his influence to get a lot of delegates for Tinubu, given the fact that many of them seem to owe their political loyalty to him (Ganduje). So, I think that is what is likely going to happen.
“For those that may likely tilt to other positions, already, the decision of the court has already cut them off; it drew the carpet under them,” Fage said.
He also said he didn’t see Badaru making significant gains in Kano, adding, “If care is not taken, Governor Ganduje will use his power of incumbency and try to deliver majority of the delegates, if not all of them.”
He said Friday’s judgement was more or less a victory for Tinubu.
“Given the nature of Nigerian politics, it is not surprising that the decision went the way it went. The reason is the fact that it will be a political suicide for an APC government at the centre and the state to allow the party to be taken by another faction and allow the ruling government to be in the opposition. So, I think that whatever it is, if the governor goes with Tinubu, it would be a political victory for him,” he added.
On whether or not it is possible for the governor to change his political loyalty before the presidential primary, Fage said it was unlikely, but added that all the permutations could change overnight, depending on how the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ends up choosing its candidate.
“If the PDP brings a very strong northern candidate, the APC would have a change of direction. In that case you would even see supporters of Tinubu and others change sides because politics in Nigeria is not about ideology, it is not about principles, it is about self-interest,” he added.
