A casual reading of the twists and turns in the running political crisis in Rivers State readily point to them as the advance stages of jostling for advantageous positioning in the 2027 general polls. The history of the crisis, features a conflict between the former governor of the state Nyesom Wike, who along with a formidable political machinery which he mobilized during his eight year tenure, is up in arms against his protege and now incumbent governor Siminalayi Fubara. His turn around to fight Fubara whose ascendancy to the office of governor enjoyed Wike’s support is believed to be driven by concerns over the loss of Fubara’s backing for the latter’s well known aspirations for future political ventures.
Since October 2023 when the crisis erupted, the general public had been fed the menu of disloyalty by Fubara to Wike his political benefactor. However, given the wide field of active and passive traducers who Wike mobilized against Fubara, and who have been manifesting various deleterious acts and devices against the latter, a more than interpersonal conflict between the duo is implicated. In any case it is already a settled matter that seizing control of Rivers State from the PDP in or before 2027, constitutes a core objective of the APC. This is just as the party is sparing no effort at achieving its objective through any means both fair and foul as the course of events is proving.
However, it is in this respect that well disposed Nigerians need to be vigilant as while a well articulated agenda of contrived crises under a ‘Pull-Fubara-Down’ agenda may be unfolding, its fuller implications may not be benign. This is because the agenda is feeding on an underlying condition of a ‘soft state’ of the Nigerian nation. The concept of a ‘soft state’ condition of a country was introduced by the Nobel laureate, Swedish Economist and Sociologist Karl Gunnar Myrdal, in his 1968 book ‘The Asian Drama: An Enquiry into the Poverty of Nations’ which was a result of a ten-year study of the problem in Asian countries.
Without doubt, the prognosis of that work applies fittingly to the Nigerian and African condition, which is that the worrisome syndrome of economic stagnation and poverty is simply due to the inherent indiscipline and aversion of the ruling class to work within the framework of constitutional provisions. Specifically, while the constitution envisions the enthronement of rule of law and the building of strong institutions, the ‘soft state’ syndrome favours the elevation of strong individuals who can cage the state and muzzle the society in power plays.
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Incidentally, just as Nigerians have in recent months been witnesses to the past cascade of untoward acts and schemes in the Rivers State crisis, a recent intervention by the two time Governor of Abia State and now Senator Orji Uzor Kalu has introduced a new dimension to the affair. In a widely publicised visit to Siminalayi Fubara, Kalu offered to take the matter of Rivers State crisis to President Bola Tinubu.
While granting the distinguished Senator the benefit of genuine intentions to foster peace in Rivers State, some facts of history dictate a more profound perspective. For instance, the crisis in Rivers State is by no means strange to the President who in December 2023 personally intervened by brokering a peace deal between the warring potentates. Needless to add that the recipe Tinubu offered them as a political solution was to many observers a ‘poisoned chalice’ for Fubara, and betrayed his support for Wike, just as it now a discredited subject of litigations as different parties claim equally varying interpretations, due of course to its conflicting stand with against constitutional provisions. Kalu’s offer to raise the matter with Tinubu raises the question of what the President needs to offer this time around, beyond the political solution to which he seems fixated, even as the crisis rages.
Second, Kalu’s offer to intervene and possibly ‘placate’ the President on the issue places on the latter the burden of tendentiousness for turning a blind eye to the meddlesome proclivities of Nyesom Wike, his beloved Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), who is directly implicated as the primary agent provocateur in the Rivers State crisis. A question here is whether President Bola Tinubu needs the intervention of Kalu to do the needful in Rivers State as is in line with his oath of office, if not for the soft state of the Nigerian nation, which all illegalities in the country feed on?
Third, is the fact that with due respect, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu was a two term governor of Abia State on the platform of the PDP and defected to the APC on whose platform he is now a Senator. It is not therefore difficult to associate his advocacy for peace in Rivers State with the grand plan of the APC to engulf the state, perhaps through a more diplomatic approach, with him as its arrowhead.
In the final analysis, the intervention by Senator Orji Uzor Kalu goes further to vindicate the persistent advocacy by this ‘Penpoint’ column that the ultimate solution to the political crisis in Rivers Sate lies within the executive purview of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. And only his resort to addressing the issue in line with the provisions of the constitution and reining in his lieutenant Nyesom Wike, will be acceptable, as any other approach will be based on whimsical political solution that will further perpetuate the ‘soft state’ of the Nigerian nation and in turn vitiate the integrity of his presidential tenure.
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