OPEC foresees energy demand rise by 23% in 2045

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said that it foresees global energy demand rising by an estimated 23 per cent by 2045.

OPEC’s Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, made the disclosure in his keynote address at the 23rd NOG Energy Week Conference and Exhibition in Abuja yesterday.

Ghais said the demand would be fueled by a world economy that was expected to double in size, growing from $138trn last year to $270trn in 2045.

He said, “We also forecast a rapidly expanding world population that will surpass 9.5 billion people, with most growth seen in non-OECD developing countries.

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“Urbanisation alone will account for over half a billion people moving to cities around the world by 2030. This data tell us that the world will require all forms of energy to meet long-term energy needs.”

He further posited that oil and gas would remain the predominant fuels in the energy mix: “In fact, oil alone will retain its share at almost 30 per cent in 2045 as world demand for oil soars to an estimated 116 mb/d by that time.”

He argued that to meet this rapid and robust growth in energy consumption, the industry would need to boost investment levels significantly in the years to come.

According to an OPEC research, cumulative oil-related investment requirements from now until 2045 will amount to approximately $14trn or around $610bn on average per year.

Securing this vital funding is essential to maintaining security of supply and avoiding unwanted volatility, the secretary general noted.

He further said that despite the facts, there had been some recent predictions for peak demand by 2030 and calls for a discontinuation of investment in hydrocarbons.

He said, “These voices are not in touch with reality, and now we are seeing large corporations and governments re-evaluate their transition strategies and timelines.

“Indeed, the rush to adopt ‘Net-Zero’ strategies was misguided and simply not realistic.”

He noted that while developing countries continued to balance priorities between developing their national economies and addressing climate change, OPEC and its member countries continued to advocate a balanced and fair process for adaptation, mitigation and the means of implementation, particularly with regards to climate finance and technology which was crucial for Africa to ensure its unique circumstances were respected and taken into consideration.

He noted further that, “It is an unfortunate fact that till today there are an estimated 675 million people with no access to basic forms of energy and 2.3 billion without access to clean cooking fuels.

“World leaders must unite and advocate for the necessary support and resources to make a difference in addressing this important matter.”

He appreciated Nigeria’s ongoing commitment to OPEC and to the Declaration of Cooperation.