Today, 1,757,205 registered voters in Ondo State will head to polling stations across its 18 local government areas to elect a new governor who will steer the affairs of the state for the next four years.
This marks an increase in the number of registered voters compared to the 2020 election, which had 1,647,973 registered voters, of which only 580,887 votes were recorded.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has expressed its readiness for the exercise, deploying 4,002 Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices across 3,933 polling units, with 812 units on standby in case of technical hitches.
Speaking on the commission’s preparations, the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Mrs Oluwatoyin Babalola, assured the public that sensitive materials were distributed on Thursday to the Registration Area Centres (RACs) for timely deployment.
Tinubu calls for peaceful polls
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has called on stakeholders and voters to uphold peace during and after the election. Through his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu emphasised the importance of the election reflecting the people’s will.
“The president reminds all political stakeholders, especially the candidates, that governance is a privilege bestowed by the people. This privilege must be respected, and Nigerians deserve a free and fair election to consolidate our democracy,” the statement read.
Tinubu also commended the security agencies’ preparedness, with the Inspector-General of Police and the Chief of Defence Staff, assuring professionalism during the exercise.
Key issues to shape victory
While 17 political parties have been cleared by INEC to contest, analysts suggest the election will be a two-horse race between the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Lucky Aiyedatiwa and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flag-bearer, Agboola Ajayi.
Both contenders, intriguingly, served as deputies to the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, leading many to dub this poll the “battle of deputies.” Akeredolu, who died last year after battling prostate cancer and was succeeded by Aiyedatiwa, left a significant political legacy in the state, and this is still expected to shape the outcome.
While Agboola served in Akeredolu’s first term, his ambition was believed to have driven a wedge between them and was replaced with Aiyedatiwa for the 2020 governorship election.
Zonal dynamics to determine voting patterns
The Sunshine state like other states in Nigeria is divided into three senatorial districts: Ondo North, Ondo Central, and Ondo South, with each expected to play a critical role in determining the winner.
Ondo North, which comprises six LGAs, has historically leaned towards the APC. Analysts predict a strong showing for Aiyedatiwa in five of the six LGAs, with Akoko North-East being the only likely exception due to its significant PDP presence.
The APC’s dominance in Ondo North is bolstered by influential figures such as Senator Jide Ipinsagba and Minister of Internal Affairs, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo. Additionally, Olayide Adelami, the APC deputy governor, hails from Owo, the home base of the late Akeredolu, which is expected to rally support for the ruling party.
Ondo Central, comprising six LGAs, could see a tight race. Akure South, the state’s capital, has the largest voting strength and is expected to favour APC due to its stronghold among elites and political appointees.
However, Idanre, the home LGA of PDP’s deputy governorship candidate, Festus Akingbaso, is expected to be fiercely contested. Ifedore, another LGA in this federal constituency, may lean towards APC due to the number of political appointees from the area, analysts said.
Ondo East and Ondo West, traditionally PDP strongholds due to former Governor Olusegun Mimiko’s influence, may now favour the APC, as many of Mimiko’s supporters have defected to the ruling party.
The two major candidates hail from Ondo South, setting the stage for a heated battle. Aiyedatiwa is from Ilaje, while Ajayi is from Ese Odo. Both LGAs are expected to deliver for their respective candidates.
The four remaining LGAs—Odigbo, Ileoluji/Okeigbo, Irele, and Okitipupa—will play a decisive role. Observers believe PDP could win Odigbo due to its significant population of non-indigenes, influenced by PDP governors from neighbouring Oyo and Osun states. Meanwhile, Irele and Okitipupa, traditionally PDP territories, have seen defections to the APC, making them battlegrounds.
Heavy deployment of security
In a move aimed at ensuring a peaceful process, over 43,000 security personnel have been deployed to maintain law and order during the election.
The Nigeria Police Force is spearheading the effort, contributing 34,657 officers, with at least four stationed at each polling unit. Supporting this robust presence are 6,000 officers from the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) and additional deployments from the Department of State Services (DSS) and other security agencies.
The Nigerian Navy has also mobilised gunboats to secure waterways and protect election materials, particularly in the riverine regions of the state. Additionally, the military has been placed on standby to provide backup where needed.
A show of force was observed in Akure, the state capital, as security operatives conducted a motorcade across major streets, signaling their readiness to respond to any disruptions.
The Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, has imposed a restriction on vehicular movement from 6 am to 6 pm on election day, barring essential services such as ambulances, fire services, and accredited media personnel. He also prohibited VIP escorts from accompanying their principals to polling units.
He revealed that DIG Sylvester Alabi has been appointed as the coordinating officer for the election, supported by AIG Bennett Igweh and CP Tunji Disu, to oversee the implementation of security measures.
Observers flag vote-buying, misinformation
The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa) has deployed monitors to counter disinformation and fact-check narratives. Adele Jinadu, Chair of CDD’s Election Analysis Centre, called for impartiality and adherence to democratic standards.
Jinadu highlighted concerns over voter apathy and gendered disinformation. “Initiatives to counter misogynistic narratives and empower women in politics are essential,” he said.
Similarly, Ezenwa Nwagwu, Chair of the 2024 Ondo Election Mission for Yiaga Africa, called on security agencies to arrest and prosecute anyone engaging in vote-buying or other electoral malpractices. “We encourage strict enforcement of laws against voter inducement, ballot box snatching, and other illegal activities,” he said.
APC, PDP confident of victory
The APC and PDP have expressed confidence in their chances.
APC spokesperson Steve Otaloro dismissed allegations of electoral manipulation, saying, “The APC is committed to a free and fair election. We are confident Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa will emerge victorious to continue the progress of our great state.”
On the other hand, PDP spokesperson Kennedy Peretei assured supporters of Ajayi’s victory. “We have gained massive support and are set to win. Our candidate, Agboola Ajayi, will deliver the change Ondo needs,” he said.
Observers predict a close contest, with the election outcome likely hinging on voter turnout and the ability of both parties to mobilise their grassroots structures.
Prof. Emmanuel Ojo, a political scientist, noted that concerns persist over voter turnout, predicting a low turnout, which he attributed to economic hardships.
“The harsh economic policies of the federal government are likely to discourage voters. People feel their votes do not translate into tangible benefits,” he explained.
Although official campaigns ended on Thursday, political parties yesterday intensified grassroots mobilisation. Door-to-door campaigns, meetings with community leaders, and voter education efforts have been reported in various parts of the state.
In a bid to galvanise support, Benue State Governor, Hyacinth Alia, met with Benue indigenes residing in Ondo. Addressing the gathering, he urged them to vote for the APC candidate, emphasising the importance of consolidating the party’s influence.
Residents stock up amid uncertainty
In the lead-up to the election, Akure and other towns in Ondo have witnessed a flurry of activity. Residents on Friday were seen trooping to markets to stock their homes with essential items to prepare for the restriction on movement. Markets, food stores, and supermarkets have been bustling with last-minute shoppers.
At the Oba Adesida and Oba Adedeji markets, traders reported brisk sales. A trader, Ahmed Musa, expressed optimism, saying, “I am happy at how people have been trooping here since morning. Many of us are making good sales. I pray that the election goes on smoothly.”
For many residents, the rush to stock up is driven by concerns over potential post-election unrest. Ms Abiola Adedapo, a resident, said, “I have to stock my home because we don’t know what could happen. The desperation among the politicians is just too much.”
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