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Nigeria’s presidential election outcome and the foreign observer missions

The outcome of Nigeria’s presidential election with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress as the eventual winner has thrown up all kinds of analysis on social media and mainstream media. A review of the post-election reportage of a section of the media with a nattering anti-Tinubu stance continuously projects the election as rigged and manipulated in favour of the candidate of the APC, always citing reports of foreign and most partisan local observers.

It is apparent that there is a grand and elaborate scheme to bend the mind of the public to accept the unfounded rigging claims by the opposition elements that have deployed all manner of misinformation, blackmail, threats, intimidation, subterfuge, and even coercion.  It is quite concerning to see people we expect to behave more decently and honorably on primetime television taking up the unenviable roles of salesmen and women for untruth.

Often cited to support their treacherous and perfidious vituperations on television and radio stations are supposed reports of foreign observers who monitored the February 25 presidential and National Assembly elections. These distortions of the kernel of foreign observer missions should no longer be allowed to go unchallenged.

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What are the facts and what did the foreign observer missions say about the general conduct of Nigeria’s general elections and the presidential election in particular? Let’s take what each of the missions opined in their observation reports as to the general conduct of the election and substantiality in terms of general compliance with the governing laws under which the elections were conducted and global best practices.

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Starting with The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Observation Mission, the regional bloc under the leadership of former President of Sierra Leone, Ernest Koroma, who led the delegation noted that the presidential and National Assembly elections were “generally peaceful and transparent.” This runs contrary to the propaganda overdrive by the opposition that the election was marred with violence, voter suppression, and intimidation.

While admitting voter turnout was generally low in most polling units visited by the ECOWAS observers, the leader of the delegation declared, “Vote counting and tallying processes were carried out in a transparent, simple and professional manner, in the presence of party agents, observers, and security agents in the daytime in some polling units and with lamps in others, where voting was delayed.” Like every human exercise that can’t go without some hitches, the ECOWAS team acknowledged late arrivals of election materials in few polling units and pockets of violence in less than five states out of the 36 states of the Nigerian federation.

The continental body, African Union sent 32 teams of observers to 17 states in Nigeria covering the six geopolitical zones. In total, the AU observers according to the Election Observation report posted on the AU Commission website visited a total of 438 polling units to observe the opening, voting, closing, and counting procedures in urban and rural areas.

The AU Observer Mission in their report signed by former President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, leader of the delegation passed the election as credible.

It stated: “In 95% of polling units visited, the atmosphere was generally calm and peaceful, except for isolated incidents of violence in Kano, Lagos, Delta, Abuja, and Cross River. The Mission notes the positive measures undertaken by INEC to reschedule polls to 26 February 2023 in specific areas where voting could not take place due to insecurity or logistical reasons.”

From available records so far from various local and international observers, media reports, and security agencies, the polling units where there was any form of an incident due to logistic issues, BVAS machines malfunction, or violence are not up to 500 nationwide out of over 176,000 polling units. Statistically, the number is too insignificant to impact the outcome of the election or cause any shift in final results.

Africa’s outstanding statesman and former President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, led the Commonwealth’s Team of Foreign Observers. In their report, the Commonwealth Mission stated that they deployed their election observers in the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja), Benue (Makurdi), Edo (Benin City), Kano, Lagos, Ondo (Akure), Rivers (Port Harcourt), and Sokoto states.

The chairperson of the Commonwealth Observer Group in his team’s preliminary assessment of the electoral process at a press conference in Abuja on 27 February noted that the election was “largely peaceful” despite administrative and logistical hurdles at many polling units adding that, “Nigerians were largely accorded the right to vote.”

Addressing local and foreign journalists, Mbeki further said: “We congratulate all Nigerians for their determination, patience, and resilience displayed throughout the electoral process…We call on all those with grievances to address disputes through prescribed legal channels.”

While the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI), in their joint report, devoted more attention to some of the logistic challenges and identified gaps that they have already advised the INEC to address in future elections, the two institutes validated and attested to the peaceful conduct of the election and observances of the rules and procedures by electoral officials at all levels.

IRI and NDI specifically affirmed the good use of BVAS and how the electronic accreditation system consolidated the transparency of the election.

The 40-person IRI/NDI delegation, with members from 20 countries, was led by Dr. Joyce Banda, former President of the Republic of Malawi.

The mission visited Nigeria from February 20 to 27, 2023, and deployed observer teams to 20 states covering all six geopolitical zones and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Quoting copiously from the IRI/NDI Election Observation Report; “Observers noted that the BVAS largely functioned properly, although some polling officials struggled to understand how to operate the system and, in many cases, the BVAS failed to authenticate voters via fingerprints, while the facial recognition feature functioned well.”

From the foregoing, it is trite to say there is nothing in the reports of the foreign observer missions that suggested or gave any indication of the flawed election and doomsday scenario the opposition figures have been propagating about the 2023 general elections in Nigeria and other ill-will of sore losers.

 Ajayi wrote from Abuja

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