Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.03 per cent in the third quarter of the year (Q3 2021), the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday.
Briefing newsmen in Abuja, the Statistician-General of the Federation and the Chief Executive Officer of the NBS, Mr Simon Harry, explained that the negative GDP figures recorded in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic had serious base effects on the GDP figures for quarters two and three 2021.
He said, “You will recall that the contraction of quarters two and three of 2020 has resulted in positive growth as recorded consecutively for the last three-quarters of quarter four, 2020 with 0.11%, quarter one, 2021 with 0.51% and quarter two, 2021 with 5.01%.
“These base effects continued to quarter three of 2021 recording a growth of 4.03%.”
He added that the improvement seen in the output growth over the last four quarters depicts steady progress made in stemming the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated negative impact on livelihood, well-being and the economy.
“Globally, many countries have witnessed an improvement in economic performances compared to 2020 when COVID-19 was endemic.
“However, in Nigeria, the prospect of full recovery is glaring, provided the current trend of improved economic performance is sustained in the rest of the year and beyond.
“It is important to also mention that annual GDP growth of 2021 stands at -1.92%,” he said.
Meanwhile analysts at Cordros Research in their reaction to the GDP figures noted that, “In line with our expectation, Nigeria’s economy grew slower in Q3-21 compared to the prior quarter, as the impact of the favourable base from the prior year began to dissipate.
The experts estimate crude oil production (including condensates) to settle at 1.61 million barrels per day (mb/d) in Q4-21 (prior estimate: 1.75mb/d), translating to a growth of 3.21% year-on-year (y/y).
However, they expect the non-oil sector’s growth to moderate to 2.40% in Q4-21, driven by the Service and Agriculture sectors amidst the waning base effects from the prior year.
Overall, the analysts expect growth to settle at 2.44% in Q4-21 and the analysts revised their 2021 growth forecast to 2.94% which was previously 2.68%.