Nigeria exits recession, records 0.11% economic growth in Q4

Nigeria has exited recession as the country’s Gross Domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The latest economic expansion represents the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters.

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The GDP report the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Thursday showed that while the fourth quarter of 2020 growth rate is lower than growth rate recorded in the previous year by –2.44 percent points, it is higher by 3.74 percent points compared to the third quarter of 2020.

Analysis of the report showed that on a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP growth was 9.68 percent, indicating a second positive consecutive quarter on quarter real growth rate in 2020 after two negative quarters.

“Though weak, the positive growth reflects the gradual return of economic activities following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters,” the NBS explained.

The report showed that overall, in 2020, the annual growth of real GDP was estimated at –1.92 percent, a decline of –4.20 percent points when compared to the 2.27 percent recorded in 2019.

The GDP numbers showed that the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N43.56 trillion in nominal terms.

This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 which recorded a GDP aggregate of N39.58 trillion, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 10.07 percent.

This growth rate was lower relative to growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 by –2.26 percent points but higher than the preceding quarter by 6.68 percent points with growth rates recorded at 12.34 percent and 3.39 percent respectively.

Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of 2020, an average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded.

This was lower than the daily average production of 2.00mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by -0.44mbpd and the third quarter of 2020 by –0.11mbpd.

Real growth of the oil sector was –19.76 percent (year-on-year) in Q4 2020 indicating a decrease by –26.12 percent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

For 2020, the oil sector grew at –8.89 percent compared to 4.59 percent in 2019.

The oil sector contributed 5.87 percent to total real GDP in Q4 2020, down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.32 percent and 8.73 percent respectively.

NBS reported that the non-oil sector grew by 1.69 percent in real terms in Q4 2020, slower than the 2.26 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, but better than the –2.51 percent growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter.

For the full year of 2020 however, the non-oil sector grew –1.25 percent compared to 2.06 percent in 2019.

“Growth in the sector was driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications & Broadcasting). Other drivers were Agriculture (Crop Production), Real Estate, Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco), Mining and Quarrying (Quarrying and other Minerals), and Construction, accounting for positive GDP,” the NBS reported.

In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 94.13 percent to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 (92.68 percent) and the third quarter of 2020 (91.27 percent).

For 2020, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.84 percent to real GDP, higher than 91.22 percent recorded in 2019.