Multiple Assured Destruction (MAD)

How will the EndSARS protest in Nigeria, which fizzled out at the weekend except for cross-country looting of COVID-19 palliative warehouses, most likely be remembered in history? No one officially called off the protest. No one even “suspended” it, as NLC and ASUU usually do. The protest had no leader or even a Joint Action Committee to call it off, so it could only fizzle out.

At first, it looked like EndSARS will go down in Nigeria’s history as a once in a generation burst of youthful idealism, a justified protest against police excesses, marked by a jolly convivial atmosphere, spreading from one city to another like falling dominoes, with bright candles lighting up the nights, with sweet music blaring from megaphones and with artful dancers entertaining protesters, all fired up by Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, some newspapers, radio and television stations.

Instead, historical accounts of EndSARS years from now will remember the burning of police stations, government offices and public buildings; smoke billowing from buildings in many towns and cities; looting of supermarkets; storming of prisons to release inmates, including convicted robbers and murderers; lynching of some policemen; blocking of major roads, causing endless traffic gridlock; busloads of thugs ferried in by pro-government elements to chase and kill protesters; sacrilegious sacking of an Oba’s palace; emergency closure of recently reopened schools; degeneration of protest into inter-communal clashes in Port Harcourt, Aba and Jos; widespread looting of government warehouses; and opening fire on protesters by a werewolf army platoon at Lekki Toll Plaza, with number of casualties ranging from zero according to Governor Sanwo-Olu to 78 according to social media influencers.

Notable winners from the EndSARS protests were the looters, anarchists, anti-Tinubu politicians in the Southwest, avowed secessionists, bandits very happy that police were distracted, insurgents much elated by the army’s discomfiture, and possibly some foreign enemies of Nigeria. There were however more than that number of victims. Let me mention a few.

Nigeria Police Force was the first casualty. Mobs in several towns lynched policemen, only because they were in the wrong uniform at the wrong place at the wrong time. Even though the Inspector General moved fast and dissolved SARS, the force’s image took a very big hit. Not just the special squads, including the high-performing IG’s Intelligence Response Squad, but every unit of the police is now suspect in public eyes. An unanswered question from last week was, why should anyone who was protesting against brutality summarily, cold bloodedly murder another person because some of his police colleagues did the molestation? Those who waged war against policemen, did they first sign a peace treaty with robbers, kidnappers, bandits, cultists and cyber criminals?

Nigerian Army also suffered collateral damage from the murky events at Lekki Toll Plaza. Reports that a “massacre” took place are now questioned by the lack of concrete evidence and proven falsehood in some of the claims. Yet, the response of Army commanders to the affair created a big image problem. They said they did not send soldiers to Lekki, though men in army fatigues were seen shooting into the air. Either the commanders are disowning their own men, or they do not have control over their men.

Federal Government of Nigeria was also a victim. It had cast itself as a methodical operator, steadily guiding the country out of the pandemic and lockdown with measured reopening of the economy, airports, schools and social life. EndSARS eruption showed it instead to be a bumbling bureaucracy that is out of touch with reality, that is disconnected from its youths, and that was unable to respond swiftly to fast unfolding events.

President Muhammadu Buhari’s well cultivated public image as a champion of change and probity took a direct hit. Many of his predecessors faced revolts during their times in office but this one was one of the most epochal. The president could not find his voice for more than ten days. He was probably seething with anger. Many advisers told him that the protests were instigated by political opponents, secessionists, foreign powers and subversive elements seeking regime change. When he finally spoke, Buhari struggled to conceal his old military self. He tried to sound patient, accommodating and democratic. He read out a long list of youth-friendly programs that his Administration is pursuing; he could not understand why the beneficiaries should revolt against him.

Don’t worry, Oga President, because the EndSARS movement was itself a big casualty of these events. From the beginning the movement had many identifiable problems, including lack of central leadership, lack of clear agenda, its doors were too open for everyone to join, and it lacked no-go areas in its protest strategy. For example, blocking major roads was a mistake that alienated citizens from the protests. EndSARS also lacked an exit strategy, allowing the protest to roll on day after day. This was an open invitation to hoodlums to hijack it.

Southwest region took a big hit. Flames and fires billowed from buildings in Lagos and many southwestern cities. Every one of the Southwest state governors clamped a 24-hour curfew, as did Edo and Delta, Southwest’s former mates in the old Western Region. A few states outside the Southwest also imposed curfews but the worst looting, burning, shooting and lynching took place in the region, including the once unheard-of attack on the Oba of Lagos’ palace.

Ohanaeze N’di Igbo needs time to recover from this tragedy. Led by the adroit John Nwodo, it has worked assiduously in recent years to string together a Southern and Middle Belt alliance as a political majority in Nigeria, despite the South West and North Central Muslim Achilles’ heels. EndSARS events threaten to throw the entire project out of gear with some Yoruba groups alleging that Igbo hoodlums orchestrated arson and looting in Lagos. Personally I don’t believe that, since arson took place in many other Yoruba towns. The conspiracy theorists’ main evidence was IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu’s incendiary broadcasts on Biafra Radio, urging arsonists and looters in Lagos to proceed without mercy. Chief John Nwodo is now in overdrive denying the allegations, when he should have silenced Kanu.

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s last political godfather still standing, took a big financial and reputational hit from EndSARS. Tinubu ruled Lagos for eight years and afterwards he anointed all the three men that succeeded him. EndSARS caught Asiwaju between the devil and the deep blue sea. Some of his adversaries spread rumours in government circles that he instigated the riots as part of his 2023 presidential bid. Other Tinubu rivals said he sent soldiers to shoot protesters at Lekki, allegedly because he was part owner of the firm that collects the toll. Hoodlums seized on that allegation and set ablaze his TVC and The Nation.

Leaders of Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC), completely side-lined by events, must now be pondering. Some people say that youths took to the streets in massive protests only because Big Labour’s planned general strike against harsh living conditions last month was called off at the last minute. Comrade Ayuba Wabba must be thinking, what if it was our general strike that degenerated into anarchy? In January 2012, NLC forced the Occupy Nigeria protests to fizzle out when it suddenly called off its general strike. It cannot be sure it can repeat the feat.

I was just thinking. There is a good reason why there has been no war involving the world’s major powers since World War Two ended in 1945, except through proxies. At the height of the Cold War, the two superpowers (USA and USSR) each had tens of thousands of short, medium and intercontinental range nuke warheads in their arsenals. An all-out war between them would have resulted in their complete destruction, plus Europe that is sandwiched between them, with enough radioactive fall-out to wipe out by-standers such as Africa. Strategists called the scenario Mutual Assured Destruction, MAD. EndSARS’ final outcome has been Multiple Assured Destruction, MAD for short.