Low COVID-19 fatality rate, a big hope for India

Three nations with the highest number of cases – the US (5.3 million), Brazil (3.2 million) and India (2.4 million) – together account for over 52% of all cases in the world, which also explain why a plateau in two of these (US and Brazil) has influenced the global trajectory.

With close to 2.4 million confirmed cases and 48,000 deaths, India climbed to number three position on the Covid-19 list.

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Low Covid-19 fatality rate, a big hope for India

India is just behind the US and Brazil in total number of confirmed cases. In the last two weeks, the rate of new cases in the United States and Brazil appears to have hit a plateau but with Colombia, India is one of the two countries among the world’s worst-hit regions where daily cases are still rising.

The Optimistic Side

India’s case fatality rate (CFR) of 2 is much lower than that of the other countries. Similarly, India’s deaths per million stands at 34, which is much lower than the figure of other countries. Among the top ten countries in terms of total number of cases by August 14, Peru recorded 657 deaths per million population, Spain 611, the US 511 and Brazil 490 which are very high compare to India.

How Asia is able to manage low fatality rate?

Contrary to the speculations by western world, India and Asian countries rapidly developed their health infrastructure by using available resources. Delhi, the national capital of India has 14,115 Covid-19 beds in the city today and 10,731 (76%) of these are unoccupied.

According to Karl Friston, a British neuroscientist and statistician, up to 80 per cent of the population is not susceptible to the virus due to some “immunological dark matter”. Immunological dark matter here refers to the part of the immune system that we know nothing about.

Are the death numbers under reported in India?

Under reporting deaths by a large factor is impossibility in India since even in villages, deaths need to be registered. Moreover, even if India was understating the death toll by half, this number will go up to 94,000.

At 94,000, India’s per million deaths would be less than 100, which is still much lower by far when compared to major countries affected by the pandemic.

Economy crawling back to normal

After a contraction in the current financial year, India’s economy is forecast to bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5 per cent next year, Fitch Ratings said in July.

Busy roads in Delhi and Mumbai have started showing the signals of revival. Several consumer durable and infrastructure companies in the world’s fifth largest economy are now clocking standard production hours.

Despite all odds, Havells India Limited, a leading Fast Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) Company in India, announced net profit of Rs. 63 crores (US$ 8.4 M) in the first quarter of Indian financial year (April to June) which is three times lower compare to corresponding period in last year but surprisingly company still managed to mark profit. “Havells is India’s leading FMEG company and not into production of any essential goods, health or pharma products which benefitted from Covid-19 situation, but still we managed to maintain sales trajectory” explains Anil Sharma, Head, Corporate Communications, CSR and Sustainability, Havells.

Ratnamani Metal and Tubes Ltd. is leading company in India, manufactures specialised pipes with having an impressive clientele comprising of major public, private and joint sector companies across the globe. Company was facing challenges in running its plant in Gujarat state mainly because of labour shortage and disruption in bidding process for new projects. “Plant was closed during April and May and output was reduced to below 50% during June” says Dhiren M Sharma, Marketing Head of the company. Situation has improved a lot after new SOPs and government incentives. “Looking at low fatality rate in India, workers are not scared of Covid-19 anymore, they knows it may come and go in two weeks even if they are infected. Production lines have started rolling again with opening of bidding process for new projects” shares Dhiren Sharma.

Low fatality rate in India is a big morale booster for millions of workers who were heading towards hinterland two months ago. Many curbs on movement have been relaxed, though schools, cinemas, gyms and bars remain shut.

Despite having few brighter spots, India is anywhere but far from danger. India has also not managed to flatten any curve — be it the number of cases, number of deaths or test positivity rate. As per Prime Minister Modi, three Ts (Test, Track, and Treat) are crucial to combat Covid-19 in India, but this depends how seriously people will adhere to Covid- 19 safety norms in the world’s largest democracy.

Jai Kumar Sharma is Consultant Editor of Daly Trust based in New Delhi