Like Quintus, can Buhari hold his ground?

One cannot overemphasise that there is global attention on Nigeria’s election this Saturday. Voters are optimistic as they predict a level-pegged contest, especially between the presidential candidates. Of course, so much has changed since the currency redesign, and people believe that the policy has tamed politicians who use cash to buy votes.

It seems President Buhari has taken a position to prove that he is different from the fantastically-corrupt politicians in the country, in spite of his party. The Archbishop of Canterbury exonerated him when David Cameron, British Prime Minister, generalised Nigerian politicians in front of the Late Queen in 2016.

In one of Buhari’s interviews regarding the naira redesign, he assured that politicians would not be allowed to mobilise resources during the elections. Many were unconvinced from the beginning. However, people are beginning to trust Buhari to deliver on his promise – to ensure free and fair elections.

When Halilu Ahmed Getso interviewed Buhari last November, the president made several promises. The journalist commented with praises, but Buhari cut him short by saying, “not yet; wait till we finish”. The general election is just four days away, and we do not know what Buhari believed when he minced those words. But many interpret it as the chess game’s final move to checkmate those who plan to use cash to buy their way to power.

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Those affected always thought they could outsmart the policy, but as they try to undo it, they dig a deeper hole for themselves. They even went to the Supreme Court to seek assistance, but the judges refused to budge. They thought the safest bet was to kick the can down the road. Time has passed for them. If only they knew the general rule, digging yourself out of a hole is difficult.

The event can be related to the blockbuster Gladiator in the final combat between Maximus and Emperor Commodus – the villain. It was at the Colosseum with thousands of spectators. Maximus was poisoned before the fight, so he was not expected to be at full strength. Quintus, the Prefect, led the Pretorian guard to protect their Emperor in a circle as they fought. At the peak of the moment, Maximus eventually disarmed Commodus. The Emperor ordered Quintus to hand over his sword, but he refused and commanded the rest of the guards to sheathe their swords rather than hand over their blades. The Emperor was helpless; what was coming was clear.

On the one hand, Buhari, a.k.a. Mai Gaskiya, is like Quintus, who is adamant about adhering to the law. Throughout the entire film, Quintus upholds the rule of law. He had the right to refuse to give the Emperor a sword in the fight, where it was just the two of them without interruption. Like the Emperor, the ruling party –APC—is asking Buhari to bend the rules for them to use old naira notes as cash is the only sword they can use to fight elections. On the other hand, the opposition parties are like Maximus, who was poisoned. They have been weakened for eight years and cannot compete if cash were used to win elections. Now, they have an opportunity to compete fairly.

For Quintus, he has calculated his risks accurately, and he knew he would be safe. In front of thousands of spectators, following the laws of gladiator battles, there was practically no possibility that Maximus would not be able to kill Commodus or that Commodus would be able to retaliate against him by foul play. Like Quintus, Buhari and the independent institutions know they can hold their position safely. After all, this is their last dance.

It will take a miracle, akin to Moses splitting the Red Sea, for APC to recover from what has been done to them. Buhari has handicapped them by redesigning the naira and ensuring that banks have only limited supplies. Tinubu echoed this in his campaign rally – that the policy was targeting him. To change the eventuality, they are trying to usurp the rule of law by misinforming the public about what the CBN Act says regarding redesigning new notes. Some desperate governors went on to dictate what legal tender should be.

But the public has refused to be fooled by them, knowing that all the outbursts against Buhari are not in the public interest. They could not explain why they failed to renege against fuel shortages, PVC collection, ceaseless killings, insecurity, and other socioeconomic challenges. People have been affected by the government’s unsalvageable sub-optimal policy outcomes, which are working against the ruling party. People will only remember the party that caused them grief. Based on these realities, the ruling party is set to lose without buying votes – like Commodus losing his sword.

Of course, the APC campaign team is trying hard to separate Tinubu from the ruling party. But the more they try, the more they are seen as amateurs who cannot predict their opponent’s actions. If they had paid attention to reality, they would have realised that the political party’s names, not individuals, are on the ballot papers.

1. As things stand, the President has held his grounds even if it may cost his party to lose. The decision shows he is siding with the law, and the people, over his party’s interest to grab power at whatever cost – according to Tinubu. The economic consequences of the policy are reserved. For the love of democracy, it would be monumental if Buhari and his independent institutions successfully used the cash crunch to stop vote-buying.