Demographic dividends may continue to elude Nigeria if the President Muhammadu Buhari administration fails to conduct the proposed population and housing census in 2021, going by the political sentiments that blocked the exercise prior to the 2019 general elections.
Records from the National Population Commission (NPC) show that Nigeria’s demographic data are outdated, even as civil registration statistics cover only 60 per cent of the country’s total population.
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Nigeria is five years behind schedule, considering that the country was due for another national census in 2016, being 10 years after the last census was conducted in 2006.
The country’s continued reliance on census data generated 15 years ago and yearly estimates negate the United Nations’ (UN) convention on decennial conduct of censuses.
The UN recommends that countries should conduct headcounts at least once every 10 years, and once every five years for even better data, rather than simply relying on estimates and projections.
There are fears that the Buhari administration may not conduct a national census in 2022, which is a year to the 2023 general elections, judging from the political sentiments which blocked the chance of the NPC to conduct the headcount in 2018, a year to the 2019 general elections.
Political sentiments greeted NPC’s moves to conduct a census in 2018, being a year to the national elections.
The immediate past Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr Yakubu Dogara, had warned that figures could be manipulated if a population census was conducted in 2018.
Dogora, through a statement by his Special Adviser on Media and Public Affairs, Mr Turaki Hassan, suggested instead that the census should be conducted in 2017, two years to the general elections.
“I won’t advise anyone to conduct a national census in 2018. I said it before that if we were not going to achieve it in 2017, we should just forget it until after 2019. If you conduct a census just before the elections, there will be so much pressure, crises and a lure for people to manipulate the figures for political reasons, such that the agency cannot even cope with,” he had said.
Census did not hold in 2017 and it appeared the Buhari-led government accepted Dogara’s position by further withholding presidential proclamation for census in 2018.
Two years to the next general elections in 2023, Nigeria is back to the same problem. There are concerns that if President Buhari fails to issue a presidential proclamation for the census this year, he may be unable to do so until he leaves office due to political pressures from the 2023 elections.
NPC douses fears
The Executive Chairman of the NPC, Nasir Kwarra, dismissed concerns that census data may be manipulated if the exercise is conducted a year before general elections.
Responding to our question on the concern, Kwarra said Nigeria once held a national census a year to general elections.
“We have an antecedent to look back to. We conducted the 2006 census one year to national elections,” he said.
The Director-General of the commission, Dr Ghaji Bello, also dismissed the political sentiment and referenced the 2006 census, which was conducted a year to 2007 general elections.
Dr Bello said the NPC was ready for census any day it gets a presidential proclamation to go ahead with the exercise.
On the delays so far, in a mailed response, the NPC blamed the delay on change in government and economic recession.
“In going by the United Nations decennial conduct of censuses, the next round of census in Nigeria was scheduled for 2016. However, this could not happen because there was a change of government. The new regime of President Buhari needed to settle down in office before embarking on a huge project such as a national census,” he said.
The NPC explained further that the President Buhari-led government fixed a new date of 2017 for the census, but this could not hold also as the world went into partial economic recession due to fall in oil prices.
“While the economy recovered, the presidency directed the commission to submit a revised census budget with a timeline. The budget has been submitted for approval. However, the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected some of the processes,” he said.
He revealed that the commission had put in place the necessary machinery in motion for the conduct of the next census awaiting a presidential proclamation and funding.
Legislative interventions
On December 4, 2019, the House of Representatives tasked the federal government to conduct a national census before the end of 2020.
Ademorin Kuye (APC, Lagos), whose motion led to the resolution, said the 2006 census data had outlived its usefulness.
“Government requires data to know the number of children being born, the number of schools and hospitals that will be needed, how many workers are in a given town and how many foreigners are in the country, for proper provision of infrastructural facilities,” Kuye said.
The lawmaker said Nigeria had a dynamic economy and a large population, which is expected to double in the next two decades, and census is a pivotal and necessary tool for the growth of any emerging society, which in turn informs decision-making at all facets of public and private sectors.
Status of Nigeria’s demographic information
The census conducted in 2006 by the NPC revealed that Nigeria’s total population was 140.43 million people, and by 2016 when Nigeria was due for another census, the commission’s estimates, based on the last census, showed that the country’s population had risen to 193.39 million.
The NPC had estimated that Nigeria’s population would hit 210.39 million in early 2020, while the United Nations estimated that the country’s population would be 206.14 million at the middle of the year.
Similarly, the NPC data showed that about 40 per cent of births and deaths in Nigeria were not registered.
Kwarra further said the rate of vital registrations, which generate data on births and deaths in the country, was slightly above 60 per cent. He said his priority would be the digitalisation of the processes of vital registrations and population census.
He added that over time, the commission suffered redundancy due to insufficient funding despite its huge mandate of data generation, but said there had been positive changes in the past one and half years.
Preparations for census
The executive chairman of the NPC revealed that enumeration area demarcations would be completed across the country this year for the census.
At the end of 2020, the commission had demarcated 254 local government areas, with the remaining 520 local government areas to be demarcated in 2021.
In October 2020, NPC announced that the federal government approved N10 billion for the commission to conclude the enumeration and demarcation exercise.
Findings by Daily Trust on Sunday showed that the exercise is at advanced stages in states, in readiness for census. For instance, the director of the commission in Nasarawa State, Mr Umar Tafida Abdul, told our reporter that more than half of the 13 local government areas in the state had been demarcated in readiness for census.
“We are ready for census because any moment from now, the NPC will start testing the instruments. What I mean by the instruments is the images so far generated. We want to test these instruments to see the merits and demerits of the images. This will help us go back to the drawing board and put everything into order,” Abdul said.
He said the nature of the enumeration and demarcation exercise being undertaken is the first of its kind in Nigeria, if not Africa as a whole. According to him, the idea is to have it right and avoid repetition in future as it would only require updating the instruments.
“Every part of the country will be covered, and anytime there would be a census, it would just be a matter of updating,” he explained.
Daily Trust on Sunday also gathered that the enumeration area data would not be for the NPC alone as other research organisations will also utilise it for various purposes.
Many Nigerians unaware of census preparations
It was gathered that many Nigerians are resisting enumeration area demarcations because they are not even aware of ongoing preparations for census.
One of the NPC’s enumerators working in villages, Francis Audu, told our reporter that landowners and youth leaders in communities where the exercise is taking place are resisting it, on the assumption that government wants to take over their lands.
Audu said some people were not aware of the exercise as they thought the NPC was capturing lands and its owners.
Significance of population data
The United Nations explains that the population and housing census represents one of the pillars for data collection on the number and characteristics of the population of a country.
“Population and housing census is part of an integrated national statistical system, which may include other censuses (for example, agriculture), surveys, registers and administrative files.
“It provides, at regular intervals, the benchmark for population count at national and local levels. For small geographical areas or sub-populations, it may represent the only source of information for certain social, demographic and economic characteristics,” the United Nations stated.
An economist, Muhammad Ali, told Daily Trust on Sunday that population data form the basis of socio-economic interventions, delineation of constituencies, polling units allocation, better sense-making of economic data, security/policing, especially police station creation, citizens identification, national planning and management, and private sector investment decisions.
“We do not truly know the number of rural and urban unemployment, number of people engaged in farming and other occupational distribution, age and gender distribution etc. Therefore, a well conducted census would point out these issues and help in better national planning and development,” Ali said.
Ali, who lectures in the Prince Abubakar Audu University, Anyigba, Kogi State, said population data allowed for understanding of indices like birth rate, death rate, female-to-male ratios, which are critical indices that could be used to guide government policies and private investment decisions.
“Population data could have been handy to not only the government but the private sector in decision making. However, a situation where the data on population cannot be said to be accurately available, it becomes difficult to make meaning out of the growth process,” he said.
He said that even in budgeting, there is what is called per capita budget, which is the total budget divided by population, and where data on head counts are not available, understanding how much is budget to individuals in the country becomes difficult.
