Rwandans will go to the poll again on Monday, July 15, 2024, to elect a new president. The incumbent president, Paul Kagame, is standing for elections once more and he is favored to win, according to analysts.
No fewer than nine million Rwandans are registered to vote in the election to be held concurrently with legislative elections – a first in the country.
The polls come three decades after the genocide which claimed some 800,000 lives.
Kagame has been Rwanda’s de facto ruler since the end of the 1994 genocide which claimed some 800,000 lives.
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Elected by parliament in 2000, after the resignation of former president Pasteur Bizimungu, Kagame has won three elections with more than 90 per cent of the ballot in 2003, 2010 and 2017, taking home nearly 99 per cent of votes in the most recent poll.
The 66-year-old politician presided over controversial constitutional amendments allowing him to potentially rule until 2034.
These shortened presidential terms from seven to five years and reset the clock for Kagame, allowing him to rule in a transitional capacity from 2017 to 2024 and then for two five-year terms until 2034.
The legislative elections will feature more than 500 candidates, with voters electing 53 out of 80 lawmakers.
The 27 remaining seats in the parliament are reserved for independent candidates, including 24 women, two young representatives and one disabled person.
Currently, Kagame’s party and its allies hold 49 of the 53 seats in the lower house.
Speaking at a rally attended by thousands of supporters, Kagame defended Rwanda’s record on democracy in an apparent swipe at allegations of stifling opposition.
“People usually disagree on democracy or understand it differently. But for us, we have our own understanding of it. Democracy means choice, choosing what is good for you and what you want,” he told a cheering crowd in the northern town of Musanze.
“Nothing is better than being Rwandan, but even better, nothing is better than being your leader… I came here to thank you, not to ask for your votes.”
Challengers in Rwanda vote
Kagame will face two challengers in the election, according to a list that was recently published.
The National Electoral Commission chief, Oda Gasinzigwa named Kagame, Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party and independent Philippe Mpayimana as candidates for the July 15 vote.
Both Habineza and Mpayimana were also the only candidates authorised to stand against Kagame in the last election in 2017.
Gasinzigwa said in an announcement on state television that a total of nine applications from potential candidates had been received.
The highest-profile name missing from the provisional list was Diane Rwigara, leader of the People Salvation Movement and an outspoken critic of Kagame, who had also been disqualified from the 2017 election.
“Instead of providing a criminal record statement as required by the electoral commission, she instead provided a copy of a court judgement,” Gasinzigwa said, adding that Rwigara also failed to provide a document proving she is of Rwandan origin.
“On the requirement for 600 signature endorsements, she did not provide at least 12 signatures from eight districts,” she added.
She said most of the other unsuccessful applicants had also failed to meet the 600 signature requirement.
Rwigara was disqualified in 2017 over accusations she forged the signatures of supporters for her application.
The 42-year-old was arrested, charged with forgery and inciting insurrection and detained for more than a year before she was released and acquitted in 2018.
Kagame had won three elections with more than 90 per cent of the vote and is widely expected to win again in July.
Rwanda holds both presidential and parliamentary elections on July 15, after the government decided last year to synchronise the dates for the votes.
Habineza won just 0.45 per cent of the vote in 2017 and his party claimed two seats in the parliament.
The 47-year-old is a former member of Kagame’s ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) but defected in 2009.
He fled to Sweden in 2010, after the unsolved death of his party’s vice president, but said he returned in 2012 to fight for democracy in his home country.
He has dismissed accusations his candidacy is a front to appease Western donors, saying, “You need to be inside the game, fighting the game.”
Mpayimana scored 0.72 per cent in his 2017 attempt.
Since assuming office in 2000, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda has spearheaded a transformative agenda aimed at fostering economic growth, national reconciliation, and stability in the country. His leadership has been marked by ambitious policies across various sectors, which have significantly shaped Rwanda’s trajectory over the past two decades.
Economically, Kagame’s administration has been guided by Vision 2020 and subsequent plans like Vision 2050, designed to lift Rwanda from its agrarian roots to a knowledge-based, middle-income economy. This vision has been supported by substantial investments in infrastructure, including roads, energy, and information and communication technology (ICT), aimed at boosting economic activity and attracting foreign investment. Policies promoting entrepreneurship and supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have also been pivotal in creating a conducive environment for private sector growth.
Socially, Kagame’s government has prioritised improving healthcare and education outcomes. Initiatives such as the Community Health Worker program have expanded access to basic healthcare services, while efforts in education have focused on increasing enrollment rates and enhancing educational quality. Rwanda has also become a global leader in gender equality, with women holding a significant number of seats in parliament and occupying key leadership positions.
Security and stability have been cornerstones of Kagame’s governance strategy, particularly in the aftermath of the 1994 genocide. National unity and reconciliation efforts have been central, with policies aimed at healing societal wounds and forging a cohesive national identity. Rwanda has also played an active role in regional peacekeeping efforts, contributing troops to United Nations missions and mediating conflicts in the Great Lakes region.
In the realm of digital transformation, Rwanda has emerged as a regional hub for ICT and innovation. Initiatives like the Kigali Innovation City and investments in broadband infrastructure underscore Rwanda’s commitment to becoming a tech-savvy nation and attracting digital investments.
Environmental sustainability has also been a priority, with Kagame’s government implementing green growth policies aimed at promoting sustainable development and environmental conservation. This includes initiatives such as reforestation programs and promoting renewable energy sources and sustainable agricultural practices.
Criticism of Kagame’s government
While Kagame’s policies have been credited with driving Rwanda’s impressive economic growth and stability, his administration has not been without criticism.
Kagame has been accused of political repression and lack of political pluralism. Critics argue that Rwanda’s political landscape is dominated by Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), with limited room for opposition parties to operate freely. Opposition leaders have faced intimidation, harassment, and restrictions on their activities.
While elections are held regularly, critics contend that they are not fully competitive due to what they called restrictions on opposition parties, media bias, and limitations on freedom of assembly.
Journalists, activists, and political opponents have faced censorship, intimidation, and even imprisonment for criticising the government or expressing dissenting views. The Rwandan media landscape is often criticised for being tightly controlled by the government or aligned with the ruling party, limiting independent journalism and diverse viewpoints.
There are also concerns about restrictions on freedom of speech, assembly, and association, which are seen as essential components of a democratic society. Some opposition figures and activists have been arrested and charged with offences such as endangering national security or inciting insurrection, which critics argue are politically motivated.
More so, critics argue that Kagame’s government, despite promoting national unity, has perpetuated divisions by favouring certain ethnic or political groups aligned with the ruling party.
Rwanda has also been accused of interfering in neighbouring countries’ affairs, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), citing support for armed groups and involvement in regional conflicts.
Despite economic growth, there are concerns about rising income inequality and disparities in access to economic opportunities, particularly affecting rural communities and marginalised groups.
Ultimately, international human rights organisations, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have raised concerns about human rights abuses and restrictions on freedoms in Rwanda.
Rights groups warn
Speaking ahead of the election, Amnesty International warned that Rwanda’s political opposition faces “severe restrictions”.
“The political opposition continues to face severe restrictions to their right to freedom of association, as well as threats, arbitrary detention, prosecution, trumped-up charges, killings and enforced disappearances,” Amnesty said.
Independent civil society and the media also face “intimidation, harassment and reprisals for their work”, it said.
Last month, Human Rights Watch (HRW) also warned that the authorities had “cracked down on the opposition, media, and civil society” ahead of the July 15 presidential and parliamentary polls.
“The threat of physical harm, arbitrary judicial proceedings, and long prison sentences, which can often lead to torture, have effectively deterred many Rwandans from engaging in opposition activities and demanding accountability from their political leaders,” said senior HRW researcher Clementine de Montjoye.
Both watchdogs said political figures faced significant difficulties in registering their candidacies, with neither leading opposition voices Diane Rwigara and Victoire Ingabire able to stand.
The rights groups noted that leading political and civil society figures had faced arrest, or were awaiting trial.
Amnesty urged Rwandan authorities to “immediately end their severe restrictions on the rights to freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly”.
Meanwhile, HRW said the presidency and officials should “urgently and publicly condemn abuse and release all those detained for exercising their basic freedoms”.
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