By Stephen Onda
CLAIM: There was widespread news about Ethiopia being on the verge of a civil war. This development was contained in a report released by the United Nations (UN). Expectedly, the report was subsequently amplified by several reputable media organisations locally, regionally and internationally. Fact-checkers at the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) delved into the claim to unravel the accuracy of the news.
FACT-CHECK PROCESS: The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia is a landlocked country situated in the North Eastern part of Africa. It shares close proximity with the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The country’s population is estimated at 114,963,588 people according to the latest data from the UN. The figure represents 1.47 per cent of the total world population.
Adjudged the 12th-most populous country in the world and the 2nd in Africa, Ethiopia also shares borders with Djibouti to the North, Somaliland to the North East, Somalia to the East, Kenya to the South, South Sudan to the West, Sudan to the North West, and with Eritrea.
Ethiopia’s economy is largely driven by a growing externally supported industrialisation, agriculture and construction. The country’s economy is one of the best in the entire continent, with a real GDP per person and an average annual growth rate of 9.3 per cent from 1999 to 2019, according to the World Bank.
However, 25 million Ethiopians are still living in poverty, a situation that could deteriorate further should the trajectory of the pre-existing conflict remain un-quelled.
The New York Times reported that the relative economic stability in Ethiopia today is now at the mercy of the raging hostility between the Tigray-led rebels and the government’s army.
Already, the conflict has left thousands of people dead and displaced and pushed into famine, over two million people. Foreigners have equally left the country on the security advice of embassies.
Historically, during the late 19th Century scramble for Africa, Ethiopia was the only African nation to successfully defend itself against European colonialists, defeating Italy at the Battle of Adwa. This enabled it to establish its modern borders through extensive conquest of territories to its East, West and Southern regions. Ethiopia was the first independent African member of the League of Nations and the UN.
The country rapidly modernised under Emperor Haile Selassie. However, later imperial shortcomings related to internal crises and protests resulted in the emperor’s deposition in 1974 and the monarchy’s abolishment six months later by the Derg, a communist military government backed by the Soviet Union. Ethiopia then underwent 16 years of civil war between the Derg and Tigray-Eritrean separatist rebels, as well as with Somalia.
In 1987, the Derg established the People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, which was overthrown in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The EPRDF coalition, dominated by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), perceived as an authoritarian regime, brought the country into its current ethnicity-based federal system. The EPRDF coalition leadership ended after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, merging its parties into the new multi-ethnic Prosperity Party in 2019.
Although Abiy’s government initially reformed and liberated the country’s politics, human rights violations, particularly ethnic unrest, heightened, sparking hostility between Abiy’s government and TPLF members, leading to the ongoing Tigray War in 2020.
In the 1970s through to the 1980s, the Ethiopian Civil War significantly hindered its economic growth, for instance, but it has since recovered. As of 2010, the country boasted as the largest economy by GDP in East Africa. Despite this momentary development, the country remained one of the world’s poorest countries, no thanks to strangulating poverty, public corruption, weak infrastructure and abuse of fundamental human rights.
On November 2, 2021, the country declared a six-month state of emergency after forces from the Northern region of Tigray said they were gaining territory and considering marching on the capital, Addis Ababa. The prime minister had earlier urged citizens to take up arms to defend themselves against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Amid the state of emergency declaration, the UN said at least 16 of its employees have been detained in Addis Ababa, and a government spokesperson, Legesse Tulu, asserted they were held for their “participation in terror”. A humanitarian worker had told the Associated Press under the condition of anonymity that all the detained staffers were Tigrayan.
While addressing the Security Council on Ethiopia a week later, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, noted that no one could predict what continued fighting and insecurity in a country of over 110 million people, over 90 different ethnic groups and 80 languages, would bring. She also observed that while some emergency supplies had been moved, it had been four months since the last big shipment of medicine and health supplies into Tigray which was home to about six million people.
The UN political chief also warned that “the political repercussions of intensifying violence in the wider region would be immense, compounding the many crises besetting the Horn of Africa.”
Speaking on the report by the Joint Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights – Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, the UN official said the investigation into the conflict in Tigray shed light on the horrific suffering civilians have endured. The report concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that all parties to the conflict committed violations of international human rights, humanitarian and refugee laws.
Also briefing the UN Security Council from Addis Ababa, former Nigerian President and the African Union’s special representative, Olusegun Obasanjo, said, “The time is now for collective actions in finding a lasting solution to avoid further escalation of the situation which may have a direct effect on the strategic Horn of Africa region as a whole.”
Obasanjo said it was a matter of necessity for all the leaders in Addis Ababa and the Northern region to agree individually that the differences between them were political and required political solutions through dialogue.
“This will therefore constitute a window of opportunity that we can collectively tap into to assist the people of Ethiopia to find a lasting solution to the ongoing crisis,” he said.
The septuagenarian Nigerian ex-president has been involved in peacebuilding efforts in the country since November last year.
Research provided further clarity on the genesis and the original motive of the armed TPLF rebels. In the 1970s, as corroborated by the NYT Report, the Tigray conflict was enlivened by accumulated unaddressed social injustice issues, something that is prevalent across the entire continent.
“The country’s two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and the Amhara, make up more than 60 per cent of the population, while Tigrayans, the third-largest, are six to seven per cent. Yet the TPLF became the most powerful rebel force in the country, eventually leading an alliance that toppled the government in 1991,” the report stated.
Ironically, the TPLF had previously ruled Ethiopia and currently dominates its army.
The prime minister was once a member of the group, but upon assumption of office in 2018, Abiy, a former intelligence officer, launched an onslaught against the rebels, a development that infuriated the Tigrayan leadership, hence the continuity of hostility till today.
CONCLUSION: Based on the existing crises that have engulfed Ethiopia in the past year and the unwillingness of the Tigrayan forces to succumb until they take over power from the current government, it is safe to say that the country is at risk of another civil war. This is also backed by the fact that Mr Abiy has indicated interest in sustaining the offensive against the TPLF.
INFOGRAPHIC VERSION
CLAIM: Is Ethiopia at the verge of civil war?
VERDICT: True
FACT: A raging conflict between armed Tigray rebels and the government army is gradually tearing apart one of the best countries in the African continent, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. There is enough evidence to corroborate the United Nations special investigation report released on the November 2, 2021.
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Bankole S.Adeshina
CDD Fact-check Lead
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