Before the advent of the internal combustion engine, imagine two horses engaging in a conversation about the era of internal combustion engines. One of the horses envisions a transformative job landscape with new opportunities, while the other horse opposes the idea, seeing it as a potential threat to their relevance in transportation and a possible complete displacement from the realm of transportation. Horses have no position in the post-internal combustion engine era.
That is my prediction for the future of the movie and music industries in Nigeria. The Nigerian movie industry is notably divided into two main sectors: Nollywood, primarily representing movies from the southern region and Kannywood, which focuses on movies from the northern region.
In the music industry, songs are typically sung in English, Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba. Both the movie and music industries are currently confronting the looming threat of collapse due to the disruptive impact of AI innovations, inventions, and discoveries.
The process of writing movie scripts by scriptwriters is time-consuming and varies in duration depending on the complexity and proposed length of the film. It can take anywhere from two weeks to three months to complete the initial draft before further refinement. However, with the advent of AI tools like ChatGPT, scriptwriters can significantly enhance their productivity. By utilizing ChatGPT, writers can expedite the scriptwriting process, potentially reducing the time required from months to just one or two days for complex movie scripts.
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The movie industry is on the verge of collapse in the near future with the emergence of generative AI tools capable of generating video from written text. In the near future, traditional methods of movie production may become obsolete. Instead of the laborious process of location shooting, hiring actors, coordinating camera movements, applying makeup, arranging logistics, etc. a movie script written by a scriptwriter can simply be fed into a text-to-video tool converter.
This innovative technology will then generate a movie video representation of the script, revolutionising the way movies are created. The tool comes equipped with video editing features, enabling users to fine-tune the video to match their requirements.
The process that involves many people with different expertise working from different perspective may likely require between two to three people instead of the large number of people required in the traditional process of movie production.
Recently, OpenAI unveiled Sora, a text-to-video conversion tool, garnering widespread attention from mainstream media. This development prompted a filmmaker in Hollywood, Tyler Perry to suspend his four-year $800 million planned movie production studio expansion arguing that Sora will eventually impact every aspect of the movie industry and jobs in the entertainment industry.
In an intriguing development, yet another valuable AI tool for video translation has emerged. This tool enables users to translate their videos into different languages such as Dutch, French, Arabic, Swahili, Chinese, Malay, and more. By doing so, the movie video creators can extend their reach beyond Nigeria and cater to audiences across Africa, Europe, and Asia, thereby expanding their potential viewer base to a larger and more diverse audience.
A deepfake movie can be produced by using the faces of renowned movie stars from both Kannywood and Nollywood, eliminating the need for these actors to physically appear in any physical location. The movie developer only requires the consent of the actors to use their faces in the deepfake video, adhering strictly to ethical guidelines in the creation of deepfake content. With these permissions in place, a movie can be crafted featuring the prominent actor(s) as the central characters, offering new possibilities in cinematic storytelling.
These emerging concepts pose a significant challenge to the movie industry, making it increasingly difficult for the traditional model to sustain itself. This trend mirrors the significant decline or almost collapse witnessed in industries such as landline telephones, photoshops, and magnetic tape, suggesting that the movie industry may face a similar fate of eventual collapse to the changing landscape.
Already the adult content industry is facing tough competition from deepfake adult videos generated by AI tools. Recently, several dedicated platforms have emerged, exacerbating challenges for the traditional adult movie sector. These platforms are attracting millions of visitors, with one particularly renowned platform drawing over 17 million viewers monthly. Typically, the platform features short deepfake adult content videos as teasers, enticing viewers to access the full content elsewhere. While the short videos span various platforms, the primary one serves primarily for advertising and provides links to other platforms where complete videos are available for purchase.
The proliferation of deepfake adult videos has led to a surprising revelation: these videos are not freely accessible but are instead sold in dollars, accepting payments via credit cards, debit cards, or cryptocurrency. This burgeoning industry has now become a multimillion-dollar enterprise. For anonymity and ethical reasons, I intentionally omitted specific platform names to prevent further traffic influx.
This discourse underscores a poignant observation: the inevitability of the movie industry’s potential decline due to the transformative impacts of AI research. In January of this year, a deepfake pornographic image featuring a celebrity, Taylor Swift surfaced on various social media platforms. The video quickly gained traction on X (formerly Twitter), spreading rapidly like wildfire and amassing over 47 million views in less than 24 hours.
Despite ethical considerations, many X users shared the video extensively before it was eventually removed and searching for the image was blocked by X. I foresee the collapse of the adult content industry in the next three years with the deepfake videos taking over.
In the music industry, numerous AI tools for music generation are currently in various stages of development, testing, or initial release. For example, MusicLM, an AI tool developed by Google, is designed for composing music and has shown promising capabilities in generating music. Currently, an advanced version called MusicFx is undergoing testing in Google’s test kitchen before its public release. Users can simply prompt ideas into the music tool, and it will automatically compose the music.
This advancement suggests that the future of music composition may require fewer people, as one individual can prompt the tool with ideas to generate music without the need for multiple collaborators. Another tool is Suno V3, which generates music from text easily. Therefore, the music industry is on the verge of facing stiff competition and the eventual collapse of the industry from these revolutions from AI.
Haruna Chiroma, Ph.D. Artificial Intelligence, University of Hafr Al Batin, Saudi Arabia [email protected]
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