The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2024 to 3.1 per cent, contained in the recently released “July 2024 World Economic Outlook”.
The IMF cited a weaker growth recorded in the first quarter of the year (Q1 24) as reason for the forecast. The downgrade represents 0.2 percentage points below the earlier forecast of 3.3 per cent.
The IMF, however, retained its 3.0 per cent forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025.
The report reads in part: “The forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa is revised downward, mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage points downward revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of this year.”
For the global economy, IMF retained its growth forecast of 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025.
It said: “The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot Global growth is projected to be in line with the April, 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025.
“However, varied momentum in activity at the turn of the year has somewhat narrowed the output divergence across economies as cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential.
“Services price inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalisation. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty.”
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