The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects overall traveller numbers to reach 4.0 billion in 2024 (counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger), exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels (103% of the 2019 total).
The association said expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets.
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The overall picture presented in the latest update to IATA’s long-term forecast, however, is unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the Omicron variant.
The February update to the long-term forecast, IATA said, includes the following highlights: In 2021, overall traveller numbers were 47% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.
In 2021, international traveller numbers were 27% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025.
IATA’s Director-General, Willie Walsh speaking on the latest update said, “The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies.
There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.”
Walsa reiterated that the biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel.
“Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus.
“And the economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel,” added the DG.
IATA, therefore, reiterated its call for the removal of all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine as well as pre-departure antigen testing to enable quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travellers.
IATA, however, observed that Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are somewhat weaker in the near-term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the population, and the impact of the crisis on developing economies.
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