In three weeks’ time, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will conduct thirty-five court-ordered elections arising from the conduct of the 2023 General Elections and a number of bye-elections arising from resignations or deaths of members of the National Assembly and State Houses of Assembly. Notably, elections will be conducted to replace former Senators Dave Umahi and Ibrahim Gaidam, and Representative Femi Gbajabiamila who have earlier resigned and took up appointments as ministers and Chief of Staff to the President, respectively.
According to the Commission, 2,189,171 voters will participate in the bye-elections in two senatorial districts, four federal constituencies and three state constituencies. Also, 2,220,912 voters will participate in court-ordered re-run elections into the National Assembly. The outstanding 157, 606 eligible voters will participate in the elections into state constituencies.
Overall, 4,567,689 registered voters will participate in the re-run and bye-elections. These elections affect 27 states of the federation and they cut across all the six geopolitical zones of the country.
Given the fact that two million voters were registered to vote in the last Kogi State off-cycle governorship election, these elections approximate the conduct of at least two governorship elections. The elections also take a national colouration given their country-wide spread.
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These re-run and bye-elections are significant. First, they are coming hot on the heels of the three off-cycle governorship elections which were conducted by the commission in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa states on November 11, 2023. Most stakeholders in the electoral process saw the conduct of the off-cycle governorship elections as a propitious opportunity for INEC to deliver superlative elections, thereby earning the trust and confidence of Nigerians, which was battered during the 2023 General Elections. Alas, and by the assessment of the media and civil society, INEC did not seize the moment. Neither did it deliver the kind of stellar performance that would have assuaged the misgivings of Nigerians or set it on a triumphant trajectory.
Second, critical stakeholders will be on the look-out to see if INEC will latch onto these re-run and bye-elections, scheduled for Saturday, 3rd February, 2024, to deliver a virtuoso performance as a lead-up to the conduct of the Edo and Ondo off-season governorship elections scheduled respectively for 21st September, and 16th November, 2024.
Third, the number of court-ordered re-run elections, numbering a paltry 35, speaks clearly to an improvement in internal party democracy among the political parties. In the aftermath of the 2015 General Elections, which were adjudged as credible by international and local observers, 80 elections were nullified by the courts for not following due process while 37 others were nullified with court order to issue Certificates of Return to petitioners.
Even though there is no clarity as to how many orders the commission has thus far received to issue Certificates of Return to petitioners after the conduct of the 2023 General Elections as to enable us make a final determination of the entire picture, one can tentatively say that there is a marked improvement in terms of the conduct of valid primaries by the political parties, all thanks to Section 29 of the Electoral Act 2022, which insists on the submission of the list of candidates and their affidavits by the political parties.
Fourth, the bypass of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) device reared its ugly head in all the three off-cycle governorship elections of last November. As a consequence, Polling Unit results, where the BVAS was bypassed, were cancelled outright. Stakeholders will be eagle-eyed to surveil and authenticate if this unfortunate development has come to frame our elections or if it is a transient phenomenon.
Fifth, and by the same token, vote selling and buying manifested themselves in the last off-cycle governorship elections. In spite of the yeomanry of the anti-corruption agencies to stem the tide, vote selling and buying were so rampant that it is feared that the trend may have influenced the outcome of the elections in a definitive manner.
Sixth, not a few stakeholders were dismayed as to why the commission did not bring to bear its power to review the conduct of elections as provided for in the Electoral Act 2022. Section 65 of the Electoral Act 2022 provides that: “(1) The decision of the returning officer shall be final on any question arising from or relating to – (a) unmarked ballot paper; (b) rejected ballot paper; and(c) declaration of scores of candidates: provided that the commission shall have the power within seven days to review the declaration and return where the commission determines that the said declaration and return was not made voluntarily or was made contrary to the provisions of the law, regulations, guidelines and manual for the election”.
In Kogi State, specifically, the voter turnout in some particular local government areas beggared belief and imagination. One would have thought that the commission would have reviewed the conduct of the elections in these areas and proceeded to pronounce on its findings. Its deafening silence, in spite of a plea to that effect by one of the aggrieved candidates in the election, did not help the commission’s profession to impartiality and integrity. Again, stakeholders will be on the look-out to observe if the commission will give muscular effect to that section of the law or it would elect to restrain itself.
Seventh, these elections, apart from providing us with a foretaste of the conduct of the Edo and Ondo off-cycle governorship elections, will help define the place of the commission under Professor Mahmood Yakubu’s watch in our electoral annals.
Recall that his first tenure of five years expired on November 9, 2020. Thereafter, former President Muhammadu Buhari graciously re-appointed Professor Yakubu for an unprecedented second term on October 26, 2020. What this implies is that after the conduct of the Edo and Ondo off-season governorship elections, the INEC chairman will have just one year left for his tenure to lapse. In that “lame duck” year, there will not be a major election to conduct, bar bye-elections. The question, which should concern students of the electoral process and Professor Yakubu himself, is: what legacy does he intend to bequeath?
The conduct of these re-run and bye-elections and the off-cycle Edo and Ondo governorship elections will provide an inkling.
Nick Dazang is a former Director at the Independent National Electoral Commission
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