Nnamdi Obasi is a Senior Adviser on Nigeria for the International Crisis Group (ICG) based in Brussels, Belgium. Before joining ICG, he was a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Research and Studies, National Defence College, Abuja, Nigeria, from 1997 to 2006. In this interview, he speaks on security challenges in Nigeria and the way forward.
What is your view on Nigeria’s security outlook for 2024?
The country started 2024 with what we might call a carryover of the multiple security challenges it had faced in recent years. For 2023 that just ended, these challenges resulted in over 9,700 people killed and over 4,000 abducted. Two weeks into the new year, some of the challenges are already taking a toll on the country.
In the North East zone, the federal government’s counterinsurgency operations have significantly curbed mass fatality attacks by Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). But both groups are still active, sometimes even extending their reach beyond the zone. So, they still pose a significant challenge.
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In the North West, many communities are continually tormented by bandit groups, sometimes also by violent extremist elements. Some of these groups, apparently under pressure from military operations, have relocated to other northern states, including Bauchi and Taraba in the North East.
Across the three northern zones, there are continuing incidents of deadly violence involving herders and farming communities, sometimes compounded by long-running ethnic and religious tensions, and also by local criminality.
In the South East, confrontations involving Biafra separatist agitators, criminal gangs and federal security forces have turned increasingly deadly in recent years. The situation could deteriorate further in 2024, particularly if the leader of the separatist group, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, who is currently facing treason and terrorism charges in Abuja, is eventually convicted and jailed by the federal government.
Across the Niger Delta, security forces and private pipeline surveillance companies stepped up operations against massive oil theft and other organised crime in 2023, but oil-related crime and insecurity have continued into 2024.
In the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), many residents fear that the recent surge in robberies, abductions, killings and other violent crime could lead to worse days ahead.
Across the country, risks of crime have been exacerbated by the widespread hardship, inadvertently caused by some of the federal government’s economic policies since mid-2023.
In the face of these challenges, the country is suffering a deepening security deficit. The police remain grossly under-manned, under-equipped, ill-motivated, and therefore, under-effective in protecting communities and citizens. So, on the whole, Nigeria’s security outlook for 2024 appears continually challenging.
Eight months after he assumed office, what’s your assessment of President Tinubu’s security strategies and management so far?
It’s probably too early to make a categorical assessment. President Tinubu has made some encouraging statements and taken some positive steps in relation to security. Notably, at his inauguration on 29 May 2023, he identified security as his administration’s top priority and promised to reform the security agencies with greater investments in training, equipment, pay and firepower.
Thereafter, he appointed new military and police chiefs, applauded by many security analysts as individually very competent and collectively committed to achieving good results. His allocation of almost 12 per cent of the federal government’s 2024 budget to defence and security, the highest sectoral allocation in the budget, signals that he may be matching his pronouncements with resources. And the police are currently recruiting 30,000 new personnel to boost strength.
Despite these encouraging developments, the appalling security situation he inherited from former President Muhammadu Buhari remains unchanged. This was tragically underscored by the Christmas eve massacre of over 200 persons by armed groups in Plateau State, and by chronic atrocities in many other states.
Nigerians certainly now expect President Tinubu to show greater vigour and urgency in fulfilling his campaign promises on security.
The security situation in the Federal Capital Territory seems to have deteriorated in recent months; what factors and actors would you identify as responsible for this?
Insecurity in Abuja generally reflects the security and economic conditions across the country. But specifically, the recent surge of insecurity in the FCT can be attributed to three major groups. The first are bandit groups that are camped in forests near the FCT. Security sources say some groups fleeing military operations in the North West and North Central zones have relocated to these forests, from where they attack FCT’s boundary communities and quickly retreat to their forest camps. These groups find the boundary communities easy targets because these communities are scantily guarded by federal security personnel. A second source of insecurity comes from other criminal gangs that are operating within the capital city. These gangs are increasingly robbing and kidnapping residents at homes, hotels and in taxis and tricycles. Some of them appear to be organised gangs, motivated by sheer greed. Others are apparently opportunistic groups whose members are drawn from the growing numbers of youths fleeing rural poverty and insecurity but now jobless and increasingly desperate in Abuja.
The third source of the insecurity is from violent extremist groups. The surge since last year followed the June 2022 attack on the prison facility in the Kuje area of the FCT, in which violent extremists freed 879 inmates, including scores of Boko Haram members. Over 400 of those escapees are still at large. ISWAP recently claimed responsibility for the deadly incident of January 2, in which gunmen killed four people in a shopping centre in Karu Local Government Area of Nasarawa State, just outside the FCT.
What do you think the FCT Administration and security agencies can do to improve the security situation in and around the federal capital?
Security agencies and the FCT administration need to take at least five crucial measures.
First, security agencies must step up efforts to apprehend and suppress criminal groups, both around the border communities and within the capital city. The Special Intervention Squad recently launched by Inspector General of Police Kayode Egbetokun needs to be adequately manned, fully equipped, highly mobile and properly motivated for swift and effective response to distress calls. The police must also resume 24-hour patrols, surveillance and intelligence gathering within the city.
Secondly, to ensure sustained resourcing of the enhanced security efforts, the FCT Administration should create a special security trust fund to mobilise contributions from all stakeholders in the territory.
Thirdly, security agencies need to deploy greater technology, including CCTVs, drones and trackers, in battling insecurity. Relevant government agencies should support them by urgently ensuring that the long talked-about linking of telephone numbers, Bank Verification Numbers (BVN) and National Identification Numbers (NIN) are comprehensively enforced and fully operative. Such measures would deny kidnappers the communications services they are using to negotiate ransoms and generally help in tracking down criminals and investigating crimes.
FCT and security authorities also need to forge stronger partnerships with local communities and residents’ associations. They should support these communities to form vigilante and neighbourhood watch groups, particularly for gathering intelligence, giving early warning and sending quick incident alerts. Residents and establishments must also be required to keep security agencies’ hotlines and safety apps for real-time distress calls and fast incident reporting.
Finally, the administrations of the FCT and its six neighbouring states should reactivate the G-7 Security Initiative, which was established as their common security platform in 2007. The FCT minister and governors of these states should meet and jointly assess their common security challenges frequently. The G-7’s Technical Committee, comprising security chiefs from the FCT and the states, should also step up collaborations for intelligence sharing and joint operations.
The FCT, as you said, is a reflection of insecurity in other parts of the country. Can the federal capital be truly secure without curbing insecurity countrywide?
The FCT Administration and security agencies will certainly achieve some gains, but Abuja may not be secured if the federal and state governments continually fail to arrest the wider hardship and insecurity across the country.
Beyond intensifying operations against insurgents, bandits and other criminals in various zones, the federal and state governments also need to redouble efforts to improve citizens’ livelihoods and create job opportunities for youths. They must also address the administrative inequities and distributive grievances, real or perceived that are fuelling agitations for resource control, self determination and separatism in different parts of the country.
Unless these challenges are addressed firmly and holistically, any hope of sustaining Abuja as an island of safety, amidst a Nigerian sea of turbulence, may be a mirage.
