Front burner issues bordering on the 2023 presidency, Value Added Tax (VAT) collection and anti-open grazing laws in some states, have been polarising the ranks of the Nigerian governors, in what pundits describe as a prelude to the 2023 campaigns. This is happening along regional divides and pitching southern governors and their northern counterparts against one another, Daily Trust reports.
The agitations for power shift in 2023 is generating tension in the political space as political bigwigs in the country across party lines are taking sharp positions. The involvement of governors, traditional rulers, senators, as well as various pressure groups from the North and South, have made the debate more intriguing.
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Some political pundits, however, said zoning did not have any root in the country’s 1999 Constitution. They argued that even the various geo-political zones agitating for positions are not recognised in the constitution.
Daily Trust reports that the Southern Governors’ Forum had, in July this year, demanded that power must shift to the South in the interest of equity and fairness.
Following from the declaration, the chairman of the Forum, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo State, insisted that the southern governors would not support any political party that fielded a northerner as a presidential candidate in the 2023 general elections.
But governors and monarchs from the 19 northern states have kicked against the southern governors’ power shift posturing and described the demand as unconstitutional.
Analysts say the clamour for power shift to the South in 2023 is overheating the polity and dividing the country along regional lines.
A former presidential candidate, Chief Chekwas Okorie, who spoke with our correspondents on the impact of the agitations on the polity and whether it is healthy enough for the peaceful coexistence of the country, said the zoning brouhaha would not destabilise the polity, but only teach Nigerians new lessons.
“Nothing will happen to the stability of Nigeria as a result of whatever zoning method the political parties choose to adopt. We all know that the issue of zoning is more of a convention than a constitutional matter.
“So it will not destabilise the polity. It can only teach us new lessons like we now have a new normal as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic. We will have a new normal after 2023,” he said.
He pointed out that the sensibility of Nigerians is higher than what it used to be, and there is a very deep division along ethnic, rather than religious lines.
“If you look at what the southern governors are saying, they are from different parties and their counterparts from the North are doing the same thing. So, it is about political parties calculating this according to their understanding of the sensitivities of Nigerians.
“The issue of competence has been taken for granted. But I guess that what may influence attitudes to voting will go a little beyond party loyalty when it comes to 2023,” Okorie said.
A former national chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), Dr Yunusa Tanko, told Daily Trust on Sunday in a telephone chat that the agitations would cease only if the Nigerian constitution was amended to ensure that once a political party fielded a candidate from the North, there would be power shift to the South for another eight years, and vice versa.
“Our constitution does not in any way consider this issue of zoning. But because of the misgovernance that has happened and people are doing ethnic politics and ethnic governance in Nigeria, it now gravitated into a heated debate and everybody wants to have a piece of the national cake to see whether ethnic governance will help in the development of their own region.
“And over time, it has proven not to be. It has not endeared the issue of regional development as perceived by the people. It has divided us more, where people feel they are not being carried along,” he added.
Another former national chairman of the IPAC, Chief Peter Ameh, said that zoning had never carried all the ethnic nationalities along in the scheme of things in the country.
He said Nigerians must restructure their minds, where competence will be given a priority and tribe and religion will take the back seat.
“Are you saying if it is zoned to the North, an Igala person from Kogi State will be allowed to take a shot? There are Yoruba-speaking people in Kogi and Kwara states. Are you saying that if it is zoned to the North, they will allow a Yoruba man in the North to have it?
“Anything that excludes others from the process is not democracy because democracy is about inclusivity. So, I always believe that our democracy should be driven by competence, merit and ability, as well as the purpose to campaign on these factors to be able to galvanise opinions and see what we can do, rather than where we come from.
“But for the purpose of fairness and justice, those who are yet to have it should have it. I have seen some people from the North-Central agitating. But at the same time, the North-West, North-Central and North-East are not recognised by the constitution. So, on what basis are they agitating?”
Dust over VAT collection
The debate on who, between the federal government and states, should collect the VAT, has been on for quite some time.
Like most issues in Nigeria, the debate on which entity between the federal government and states should collect the VAT has been mired along the familiar North-South partisan rhetoric by political figures. More worrisome is the fact that it has pitched governors from the North against their counterparts from the South. Socio-cultural groups are not left out as they pitch their tents with their respective regions.
VAT contributes significantly to the total revenue generated by the government, accounting for over 16.2 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019.
There are fears that most states may not be able to meet their financial commitments if the judgement in August by a Federal High Court in Rivers State, which ruled that the right to collect VAT belonged to the states and not the federal government through the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), is upheld.
Lagos and Rivers states, which contribute significant VAT collectibles, have already enacted laws that will empower them, and not the federal government, to collect the tax.
While the Southern Governors Forum has expressed support for the judgement of the Federal High Court in Rivers, northern governors said the forum was confusing VAT with sales tax.
Arising from an emergency meeting with traditional rulers, the northern governors maintained that the FIRS should continue the collection of VAT.
“If every state enacts its own VAT law, multiple taxation will result in increase of prices of goods and services and collapse in interstate trade. VAT is not a production tax like excise, but terminal tax, which is paid by the ultimate consumer,” northern governors noted.
There are indications that the attorney-general of the federation and some state governments in the North will jointly challenge the court order which permits states to collect VAT.
In a counter move, the South-South Governors Forum and Oyo State in South-West have requested to be joined in the suit as they favoured states collecting VAT, just like Lagos, which has also been joined in the suit.
However, the governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi, in the South-East, has expressed reservation and dissociated himself from the resolution of the Southern Governors Forum that states should collect VAT.
“When they (the southern governors) said that VAT collection was part of true restructuring, I said I never believed in total restructuring. I believe in administrative restructuring. In any gathering, the minority would have their say and the majority would have their way,” he said.
The governor said that many states would not make it if the states took over the VAT collection task from the federal government. He appealed to southern governors to be their ‘brother’s keeper.’
“I have said that my state would not be viable and I would continue to say that more than 30 other states would not be viable. We should not break the states,” he added.
The apex Igbo socio-cultural Organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the pan-Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere, as well as the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), have all backed the southern governors, while the Northern Elders Forum said the region could survive without the billions from the South.
Experts have called for resolutions of the controversies surrounding VAT collection. They stressed that confusion that businesses might face amid the legal battle over VAT collection would not be healthy for the economy.
The director-general of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr Chinyere Almona, in a statement, also described the VAT battle as unhealthy for the business community. It, therefore, called for swift intervention of the Court of Appeal to reduce the uncertainties surrounding the controversy.
The Institute of Chartered Secretaries and Administrators of Nigeria (ICSAN) also said there was no need to heat the polity over VAT. It urged the federal and state governments to look inward and see how they could give meaning to citizens by maximising human, material and natural deposits.
Crisis over anti-grazing law
About 12 states have signed anti-open grazing laws, which restrict cattle herders from grazing their livestock openly. Taking a cue from Benue, which signed the controversial law in 2017, southern governors, particularly Ebonyi, Ekiti, Abia, Lagos, Enugu, Bayelsa, Osun, Rivers, Ondo, Akwa Ibom and Oyo have signed theirs.
This followed earlier resolutions of the Southern Governors Forum, which pushed for the implementation and signing of the law in all states of the southern region.
But Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State recently faulted the decision of the governors, saying they were politicising the issue of grazing rights by passing laws they know cannot be implemented. He clarified that from the position of the Northern Governors Forum, open grazing was not a sustainable way of livestock production, but stressed that moving towards ranching could not be done overnight.
The governor, who berated his colleagues for passing what he termed a populist legislation without providing solution to the problem, said, “We have to have a plan. We have to have resources and we have to implement it sensibly.”
Coming at a time when political tension ahead of 2023 general elections is rising, the issue of open grazing is seen as one topic that is not only breaking the ranks of the governors but also the country’s unity.
There is no doubt that most of Nigerian pastoralists are predominantly Muslim-Fulani from the northern region. Struggle over grazing land and scarce resources due to desertification occasioned by climate change, as well as population expansion, have in recent years put them in perennial violent conflict with farmers across the country.
With the recent rush by southern governors to sign the anti-open grazing laws, herders say the decision is aimed at chasing out every Fulani herder from the southern region, especially when most governors of the same region have rejected several policies of the federal government aimed at establishing ranches across the country.
The national secretary of the Gan Allah Fulani Development Association, Ibrahim Abdullahi, said the anti-open grazing laws signed by some governors contradicted the country’s constitution, which gives right to every Nigerian to live and do business anywhere without being subjected to threats or intimidation.
Abdullahi, who expressed annoyance at the level of speed with which the southern governors signed the laws, said, “You cannot make a law that prohibits something without providing an alternative. These governors have not done that and they have even pronounced that they would not make any land available for ranching.
“What that means is that without mincing words, these governors are saying they don’t want Fulani herders in their states. They are asking every Fulani herder to leave the South and return to the North.
“What we are doing now is preparing to head to court because if you chase out over 15 million people with their animals and tell them to return to the North when your own brothers and sisters are allowed to live in that North, I am sure anyone who hears this knows that it is not fair and it will create tension.”
Daily Trust reports that the federal government had in the past introduced various schemes, such as the Rural Grazing Area, the National Livestock Transformation Plan, and recently proposed the review of about 368 grazing routes across 25 states.
However, in March 2021, Cross River, Delta, Anambra, Oyo, Edo and Akwa Ibom states said they would not donate any land to be used as grazing reserves for herdsmen under the National Livestock Transformation Plan.
The plan, which is designed to run from 2019 to 2028 as a collaborative project among the federal and state governments, farmers, pastoralists and private investors, has dragged on, with herders saying it shows lack of seriousness on the part of the federal government.
It is believed that the current tension between the North and South due to open grazing, according to a report of the International Crisis Centre published by Daily Trust, could leave the country vulnerable and lead to an escalation of herders-farmers conflicts, which could degenerate into wider ethnic, regional and religious violence.
By Clement Adeyi, Saawua Terzungwe (Abuja), Abiodun Alade (Lagos) & Lami Sadiq (Kaduna)
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