How Osun guber election has been setting tone for presidential poll since 2014

After months of political scheming and intense electioneering, Osun governorship election was held on Saturday in an atmosphere dominated by anxiety and enthusiasm.

As results trickled in, the tension became more palpable especially in the camps of the two leading candidates, the incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Senator Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

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By Sunday morning, it was crystal clear that the keenly contested election had been won and lost as the Independent National Electoral Commission announced Adeleke as the winner of the poll widely described as a “rematch” between Oyetola and Adeleke.

The two candidates had slugged it out in 2018 when Oyetola narrowly emerged victorious after a rerun that saw the then governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party, Senator Iyiola Omisore, striking a deal with APC.

Omisore is now the National Secretary of the party.

In the build-up to the Osun election, many political pundits described it as a precursor of the 2023 presidential election.

Notably, at the inauguration of an 86-member campaign council for the Osun governorship election, the APC National Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, urged the party stalwarts to do everything possible to win it, saying that he had zero tolerance for failure.

He also admitted that the election would signpost the fate of the party in the 2023 general elections.

Adamu had said, “I urge you to go there and do whatever is doable within the laws of Nigeria and our electoral laws to win.

“My tolerance level and this national working committee level for failure is really really zero. Most of you have been statesmen in your own right (by the virtue of the) offices you held before today. But for this exercise, take off the big guns, take off the creepy suits wear and go down the trenches to bring that victory we want.

“Nobody should come back to us crying, failure is not our own by the grace of God. Whatever it takes within the laws of the land, I said go for it, win the election.

“Let them go complain. Let them go wherever. Let’s win the election. We have no apologies whatsoever for this posture because these two elections (referring to Ekiti and Osun) are forebears to the national general election coming in 2023.”

While the APC won the Ekiti governorship election held in June, PDP defeated the ruling party in Osun, thereby setting a high competitive ground for the 2023 presidential election.

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Over the years, Osun politics has assumed a unique dimensio, unlike what obtains in many other states. Except, former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, no sitting governor has served two terms in the state.

The state politics became more interesting in 2014 when Aregbesola was reelected, defeating Omisore who was the PDP governorship candidate.

Aregbesola polled 394,684 votes, while Omisore secured 292,747 votes to come second.

The election was held at a time when APC was newly formed by a coalition of political parties and prominent politicians who defected from PDP.

Despite the fact that PDP was the ruling party then, under the leadership of former President Goodluck Jonathan, APC won the election. The momentum was sustained and led to the ousting of PDP at the centre after 16 years in power.

In 2018, the governorship election in the state was also mainly between APC and PDP which the former narrowly won. This, again, set the tone for the 2019 presidential election — the race of which was majorly between President Muhammadu Buhari, who was seeking reelection, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

Many people, especially PDP members, alleged that Nigerians widely voted for Atiku but the election was rigged.

While the recently concluded governorship election in Osun may not directly translate into who will carry the day in the forthcoming presidential election, its outcome has put the two dominant parties on their toes. And like Adamu might have rightly noted, it is going to be a “forebear” for the 2023 general elections.