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How Nigeria’s GDP growth beat IMF’s forecast

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released its fourth quarter report that stated that Nigeria’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 rose to…

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released its fourth quarter report that stated that Nigeria’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 rose to 3.10 per cent in real terms, a drop from 3.40 per cent recorded in 2021.

The report, which indicated that the economy recorded slower growth when compared to 2021, showed that the growth surpassed the projection made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2021, showing that the economy would grow by 2.7 per cent.

Even though the international money lender raised its projection later in the year to 3 per cent, Nigeria’s economy had to overcome flooding, inflation, and reduced oil production among others to stay afloat in the 3 per cent threshold after the economy tanked to negative growth in 2020.

According to the NBS, quarterly growth during the year indicated that Q3 had the highest growth with 3.54 per cent followed by Q4 with 4.52 per cent, Q1 with 3.11 per cent while Q3 had the lowest growth with 2.25 per cent.

Sectoral performance

Nigeria’s economy is broadly divided into oil and non-oil sectors. With the low production of crude oil over the years, the country has made attempts to reinvigorate the non-oil sector.

This attempt has been gaining ground with the annual growth rate of the non-oil sector growing by 4.44% in real terms, contributing 94.43% to the economy while  oil declined to -19.22% in 2022 as it contributed 5.67 per cent to the economy.

Overall, the top 10 contributing activities to Real GDP were crop production, 24.10, Trade 15.82, telecommunications and information, 15.55 per cent, real estate 6.18 per cent, crude petroleum and natural gas 4.34 per cent, food, beverage and tobacco, 4.14 per cent, financial institutes 3.67 per cent, construction 3.47 per cent, professional, scientific and technical services 3.34 per cent and other services 3.27 per cent.

Cumulatively, the sector is categorised into agriculture, industries and services, with each contributing 25.58, 19.02 and 55.40 per cent respectively.

In nominal terms, the report noted that the country’s economy as of December 2022 was worth N202tr.

Agriculture is the highest contributor with N47.9tr followed by manufacturing with N27.5tr, trade N26.6tr, information and communication N21.48tr, construction N18.6tr and mining and quarrying N13.6tr.

Others include real estate N10.2tr, financial institutions N6.7trn, transportation and storage N4.29tr, professional, scientific and technical services, N5.3tr, public administration N3.3tr, education N3tr, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply N1.78tr, human health and social services N1.19tr and accommodation and food services N1.75tr.

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