Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, on Sunday, withdrew their membership of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) with immediate effect.
Having been members for nearly five decades, the three countries accused the regional bloc of straying from its founding ideals.
This was sequel to the sanctions imposed on them by the regional body following the ouster of democratic governments.
Mali was suspended in 2021 after two coups; Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in 2023.
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The withdrawal presents a two-pronged danger, experts say. On one hand, the absence of these key players at the negotiating table could stall progress on vital trade and investment agreements, hampering economic growth and prosperity across the region.
On the other hand, the strained relationship between ECOWAS and the departing countries could further destabilize the region and create fertile ground for conflict.
Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, a political analyst said ECOWAS’ decision has created a complex situation. He believes both ECOWAS and the three countries may face unforeseen consequences in the long run.
Professor Tukur Abdulkadir, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the Kaduna State University, said that the position of the three countries is a major rift in ECOWAS. According to him, there has never been anything like this since the organization was established.
The scholar said that while historical tensions exist between some former English and French colonies, “I don’t think it has ever got to the extreme as this group has found itself now.”
He said bridging the gap is doable, but fixing this split requires genuine effort, mutual understanding, and respect for all the parties.
Speaking on the effects of the withdrawal, Professor Abdulkadir said that this action could jeopardize agreements between the three countries and ECOWAS, particularly those related to immigration and trade.
“All the three countries share a border with other countries that are part of ECOWAS, except the border between Niger and Burkina Faso, Burkina Faso and Mali and Niger, Algeria and Niger,” he added.
However, while acknowledging potential strains, he downplayed the risk of a complete breakdown in relations between Nigeria and Niger, citing their deep historical ties.
He stated, “There is no other country in the West African region that has such a close relationship in terms of culture, language, religion, and country like Nigeria and Niger.
“The interests of the people in these countries must be taken into account, not only the interests of those who lead the governments of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso or the leaders of ECOWAS.”
The don argued that “ECOWAS’ restrictive measures, while intended to pressure the military regimes, are backfiring by causing economic collapse. To mend the relationship and promote development, ECOWAS should adjust its approach.”
