New Year celebrations used to feel magical when we were children. The tolling of bells and the bangs of firecrackers petrified the demons of the past year and dazzled the sky with verve and brilliance, as if inviting the new year to stroll in, guided by light and optimism. The excitement was tangible; it felt like velvet to the touch.
But every year, that optimism wanes, like velvet that has been rubbed far too often by coarse hands until it feels like fine sandpaper—smooth but still abrasive against the skin. Now it just feels like surviving each year—just surviving the rigours of it, the toll it takes from you, the punches it throws at your head—feels like grace. It is grace, one that Nigerians have now learned to accept because the alternative is to accept with optimism. It takes a special kind of awareness, unique yet pervasive, to recognise that surviving the shege Nigeria dealt Nigerians in 2024 is like earning a badge to be pinned on one’s uniform. If you earned that badge, I slam my feet together, stand still and stiff, and salute you. May that Shege Pro Max of 2024 not follow you into 2025.
An optimistic prayer, but one that has become essential to our survival—the hope that keeps taking a beating at every turn—clubbed, whacked, thumped over the head, kicked and headbutted, splayed and whipped—but stubbornly refuses to die.
When we were children, New Year felt magical for other reasons. It felt like the time we could flip the calendar and suddenly start on a clean slate, the torments of the past year gone, the good memories lingering. Memories of running in the fields and playing in the sand and sometimes fighting your friends over something so insignificant that the reason for the fight is lost and forgotten once the first punches are thrown.
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As one grows up, you realise that countries too, like petulant children, bicker and quarrel. Three years ago, believe it or not, Nigeria was building a multi-billion-naira railway to connect to Niger Republic. It was a strange decision at the time because the intra-Nigerian rail system is still being revived from its decades-long coma, and most Nigerians thought charity should begin at home. But we needed to connect with Buhari’s “cousins” across the border, and that seemed to have some national importance at the time. Now, a few years down the road, we find ourselves at a crossroads with our neighbours to the North, and that beef has carried on into this new year.
Since some soldiers in Niger locked up President Muhammadou Bazoum in his presidential residence and seized power from him on 26 July 2023, there have been discussions of war—technically an invasion—more diplomatically, military action—between Nigeria and the Niger Republic. ECOWAS, led by Nigeria’s President Tinubu, sanctioned Niger, closed off its borders, and then threatened military intervention to restore democracy. Nigeria even cut off the power supply to Niger to force its leaders to comply. Combined with the sanctions, these punitive measures have had significant economic and humanitarian repercussions. Niger has faced shortages of essential goods, escalating food insecurity, and increased hardship for its population, further straining relations between the two countries. However, Niger held firm.
These were ill-considered moves and soon backfired, to the extent that the juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso removed their countries from ECOWAS and formed an Alliance of Sahel States (the acronym of which amuses me each time I think about it). Niger even went as far as rejecting Nigeria’s decision to reopen the 1,500 km border between them.
Niger has been a key ally in combating some of the security challenges Nigeria has faced over the last two decades, and this tiff with Niger does not bode well for us. While terrorism is a problem for both nations, Nigeria has suffered significantly from it and needs to explore all options to end it. So, we backtracked and returned to the negotiating table in August last year. We signed an agreement with Niger to address shared security concerns, particularly the cross-border threat of extremist groups. The effectiveness and durability of this cooperation remain uncertain, given the prevailing political tensions.
The recent accusations made by the head of the military junta in Niger, Abdurahmane Tchiani, are serious and could have wider implications. Did Nigeria collude with France to destabilise Niger? After all, President Tinubu was at the Élysée Palace on 28 November to wine and dine with President Macron. Two weeks later, on 13 December, the Lakurawa terrorist groups sabotaged the Niger-Benin pipeline in Gaya. Niger’s Foreign Minister Bakary Yaou Sangare suggested complicity by Nigerian security forces in the sabotage before General Tchiani reiterated allegations of Nigeria’s collusion with France, leading to the summoning of the Nigerian chargé d’affaires by Niger’s Foreign Affairs Minister. That is a serious move to further this narrative.
So, did Nigeria do it? I don’t think so. The important thing is that this is the narrative the junta is selling to its people. It is a dangerous and clever move because portraying Nigeria as the big bad wolf at the door, causing the implosion of the Nigerien economy and the suffering of its people, will draw ire away from the regime.
The most dangerous aspect is when countries start accusing each other of colluding with terrorists to attack one another; it could lead one country, or desperate people on either side, to actually do that as a form of retaliation or payback. While the likelihood of an all-out war between Nigeria and Niger at this point seems far-fetched, we must recognise that we are walking on a knife edge here.
Nigeria has extended an olive branch, expressing a commitment to dialogue and regional harmony. It is a Hail Mary to douse tensions, and even if Nigeria is the bigger country here—not in size for sure—the saying that stooping to a dwarf is not weakness might be a useful proverb to apply to the situation.
The truth is that Nigeria could have handled this situation better. We could have read the room more effectively before and after the coup, and our response could have been more measured. The junta strengthened its hold on power by promoting a narrative that it is trying to rescue the soul of Niger from the colonial claws of France. It is attempting to sustain that power by portraying Nigeria as the enemy.
The real enemies, though, are Boko Haram, ISWAP, and the Lakurawas. Both countries must keep their eyes on the ball, resolve their issues quickly, and face the enemies of their people. The jump from building a railway to connect the people to all these dangerous dialectics is too sudden. Buhari’s cousins need to take things easy. It is a new year. These two neighbours need to turn the page and start afresh before someone says or does something that can’t be taken back.
It is a new year. I would like this to be a year to leave shege behind. So, Happy New Year!
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