Four salient paths to Tinubu’s victory

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) President-elect in the early hours of Wednesday, marking the end of the keenly contested election held last Saturday.

INEC Chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, who declared the results, said Tinubu polled 8,794,726 votes to defeat his closest rival, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who scored 6,984,520 votes. While Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) got 6,101,533 voted, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) trailed with 1,496,687 votes.

Now that the election is won and lost, Daily Trust takes a look at the four factors that played critical parts in Tinubu’s path to victory.

Ethnicity

Going to the polls, ethnicity was a major yardstick that brightened the chances of the former Lagos State governor. Tinubu rode on his famous ‘emilokan’ – it is my turn – slogan to rally support from Yoruba, majority of who believe that a Tinubu presidency is a collective ethnic cause.

INEC Declares Tinubu President-elect

Intrigues as INEC declares Shekarau winner of Kano senatorial seat

As such, Tinubu got overwhelming votes from his region in the South West dominated by Yoruba. Although he lost in Osun and his home state in Lagos, he was able to secure a large number of votes in the two states, resulting in a narrow defeat to Atiku and Obi respectively.

The Centre for Democracy and Development alluded to this factor in its post-election report released on Tuesday.

“Early voting patterns suggest that ethnic identity may have been a key determinant in voters’ choices in this election. However, the result from Lagos, where Obi was able edge Tinubu offers some optimism for a generational change independent of the ethnic cleavages that have historically dominated Nigerian politics,” CDD said.

Muslim-Muslim ticket

A storm of controversy trailed Tinubu’s choice of Senator Kashim Shettima as his running mate as many, especially those from other religious groups, kicked against the Muslim-Muslim ticket in a secular society such as Nigeria.

But Tinubu stuck to his guns, justifying his choice in what he and his party described as a strategy to make inroads into the core North and gain acceptance from the Muslim voting bloc in the region. The strategy, to a large extent, worked in Tinubu’s favour as he got millions of votes in the North West, North East and North Central.

Obi and Kwankwaso’s defection

Going by the final results INEC declared, some would argue that Tinubu and the ruling APC would have been humbled to an ignominious defeat if Obi and Kwankwaso had not defected from PDP to LP and NNPP respectively.

In the run-up to the presidential primaries, a clash of interests loomed large in PDP. Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku could not come to terms as each of them wanted to emerge the standard bearer of the party. This eventually snowballed into defections and the resultant depletion of votes that should have gone to PDP.

The Governor of Anambra State (where Obi hails from), Prof Charles Soludo, captured this scenario in a letter he wrote last year.

“Peter Obi is taking votes away mostly from PDP. Indeed, if I were Tinubu, I would even give Peter Obi money as someone heading a department of his campaign because Obi is making Tinubu’s pathway to victory easier by indirectly pulling down PDP,” Soludo said.

G5 factor

Many political analysts have argued that the crisis between the PDP leadership and five governors from the party led by Nyesom Wike of Rivers State constituted a major distraction for the party and its candidate. The governors – Wike, Samuel Ortom of Benue State, Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State and Okezie Ipeazu of Abia State – were at daggers drawn with the party, demanding the resignation of its national chairman, Dr Iyorchia Ayu. They anchored their grievance on perceived injustice in the party, claiming that Atiku and Ayu are from the North.

Although Atiku and PDP later put the crisis behind them, its effect was somewhat telling in the results of the poll as Tinubu won in Rivers and Oyo states. Obi also secured huge votes in Benue after Ortom openly declared support for the LP presidential candidate. Ultimately, Atiku did not win in any of the states governed by the G5.