Floods, longer dry spell imminent in 2021 — NiMet report

The season climate prediction by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) for 2021 shows that there will be flashes of floods in some parts of the country as well as a severe dry spell in most parts of the north.

Presenting the highlights of the NiMet’s 2021 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) Tuesday in Abuja, the Minister of Aviation, Sen. Hadi Sirika, said “The normal to above normal rainfall pattern in the country will lead to the possibility of isolated flash floods due to increasing high-intensity rainfall at the peak of the season, especially in areas that are naturally prone to flooding.”

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States with perennial flooding include Kogi, Benue, Bauchi, Anambra, Adamawa, Bayelsa, among other states.

Areas to experience dry spell

On dry spells, he said evidence show that a severe dry spell lasting at least 15 days is predicted over Arewa Dandi, Birnin Kebbi, Argungu, Augie. Also towns in Kebbi state like Illela, Gada, Tangaza, Gudu, Sabon Birni and towns in Sokoto, such as Shinkafi, Birnin Magaji, Maradun, Zurmi) Zamfara, will experience dry spell.

Others include Kaita, Mashi, Mai’Adua, Katsina, Dutsi, Daura, Baure, Zango all in Katsina state and Gwiwa, Yankwashi, Gumel, Birniwa, Sule-Tankarkar, Guri, Kiri Kasama in Jigawa Jigawa state among other towns on Yobe and Borno states. the dry spell will be in the months of June and July which may last between 2-3 weeks after the Onset. Farmers should adopt soil-moisture conservation techniques to reduce chances of crop failure during this period.

Warns farmers against early planting

The report also warned farmers against early planting. It said the pre-onset rainfall (False Onset) will also happen this year but farmers shouldn’t be quick at planting.

A further highlight of the prediction show that the 2021 onset of the growing season “is predicted to be normal to earlier than normal in most parts of the country.

“The earliest onset date is likely to occur on the 1st March, 2021 along the coastal line of the country while the latest date is anticipated to be around 29th June in the northernmost parts of the country. However, later-than-normal onset dates are expected over a few places such as parts of Lagos, Ogun, Kebbi and Niger States.”

Rainfall cessation

On cessation it said the earliest cessation date is around 9th October 2021, is expected around Katsina and the northern parts of Sokoto while the latest cessation date is expected on the 25th December, 2021 over the Niger-Delta region.

It noted that generally, cessation dates are predicted to be relatively normal in most places except for a few places where cessation dates are expected to be a little earlier or later than normal.

On the length of the growing season, the SCP showed that “the 2021 length of the growing season is expected to span between 110 days in the extreme north and over 300 days in the south. Most places are expected to have their usual length of season, however, a few places such as Lagos and the FCT are likely to have a shorter length of season, differing by a few days (about 5 – 14 days).”

It also said a normal to above-normal annual rainfall amount is expected for most parts of the country. However, below-normal rainfall totals are expected over a few places in the North-western parts of the country such as Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara and Kano States.