End game for Buhari’s first term

Just as every mortal dispensation has an endpoint, so the first term in office for President Muhamadu Buhari is winding up in an end game that features events and tendencies, many of which pre ordain his second term. Beyond any other development, the end game proper can be said to have commenced with a circular issued by the Secretary to the Federal Government Mr Boss Mustapha which gives all ministers up till Wednesday this week being 24th April to submit performance reports featuring summaries on policies, programmes and projects under their briefs. They are also required to ensure that all outstanding memoranda intended for presentation to the Federal Executive Council, reach the Cabinet Office on or before Tuesday, April 30th 2019.

Ordinarily, any stock taking exercise of stewardship is of interest to stakeholders in the terrain of the designated stewardship. Hence the outcome of this ministerial stock taking exercise remains of more than casual interest for Nigerians generally. In one vein, the exercise will provide the President valid insights and therefore the opportunity to separate the men from the boys among his ministers, as well as set the criteria for who among them will return to the Federal Executive Council as minister(s) or in any other official capacity in service to the country, in the President’s second term in office.

In another vein, the narrative should not be confined to just providing exclusive briefing to the President as well as perhaps his kitchen cabinet alone. The content of the reports should also be availed the general public who ultimately constitute the beneficiaries of the service delivery by the ministries. They are therefore in a better position to verify the authenticity of claims made by any minister.

The advantages of engaging the public in the appraisal of the ministers are legion. Even the Freedom of Information Act elaborately provided for MDAs to produce Annual Reports on their policies, programmes and projects. But this important provision of the Act has never been implemented, leading to the bulk of government business running like voodoo operation – virtually in the dark.  Hence asking ministers to produce performance reports at the end of an administration’s four-year tenure remains a major concession to them but a disservice to the society.

Another side of the present exercise is that with the benefit of experience, performance appraisal for public officers in Nigeria has never been a tea party. Beyond the problem of obtaining verifiable measures of performance is the question of lethargy to subject themselves to scrutiny.  As it is in any real life situations, stock taking exercises usually expose the good, bad and ugly turnouts in performance. It will therefore be a wonder if much of the claims that will feature in the ministers’ reports eventually prove verifiable. Without any iota of doubt as well therefore, even the level of mismatch between the resources endowment in terms of funds and other assets at the disposal of the ministries, and verifiable levels of implementation of policies, programmes and projects will prove humongous. And the reason for this situation is not far-fetched – diminished scrutiny!

As not a few commentators have observed, scrutiny of the operatives and processes in the country’s public service delivery system, remains an uphill task as indiscipline and crass impunity serve as the opium of the average public servant. This syndrome largely vitiates the sanctity of government business from the bottom of the system to the top. The situation remains open to individual minister to write his or her name in gold by effecting change in the system, or simply sit back and exploit the situation to personal advantage. Already, against the backdrop of the run of duty by many of the ministers, not a few Nigerians are of the view that the outcome of this exercise mat not vindicate many of them. This is even as the exercise provides opportunity for the affected ministers to package their submissions in unrealistically glowing light.

Thankfully the President has on several occasions indicated that his next cabinet will wear a new look. For instance, just recently at a function organised recently by some APC Women and Youth leaders to celebrate his victory at the March // Presidential polls, Buhari promised to include more youth and women in his cabinet. Although he had kept the ultimate shape of the cabinet close to his chest, such a gesture as he made during that gathering and others have actually stirred book makers to pontificate on who among the present ministers as well as fresh faces would or would not make the renew cabinet.

Many observers believe that a scramble for positions in the new cabinet has been stalled only because of the seeming futility of such enterprise courtesy of Buhari’s leadership style. Beating the gun beating the gun is keeping their ambitions seemingly under wraps.

However, the factors that will drive the endgame for his first term pursuant to defining the character of the cabinet for his second term will include the following. Firstly, is the factor of his personal judgement of the outgoing ministers. While the need may exist to retain some of them for the purpose of continuity, making his pick among them will still remain a challenge, even with the order on them to submit their progress reports.

Another factor is the quantum and quality of contribution by the serving ministers to the political fortunes of the APC in their traditional constituencies, especially during the last general polls. In the present dispensation whereby party supremacy is being promoted in the APC it will be interesting to see how far that will affect Buhari’ choices for ministerial appointment.

In the calculus of who gets what in sharing the gains of political victory, the worth of a leader is defined by the relevance he or she commands in the constituency, as measured by political and electoral value. This situation remains the primary motivation for politicians to plant their loyalists in strategic positions in the governance structure. In this respect is the raging argument over the fortunes or otherwise of the Minster of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi whose personal proclivities virtually stalled the fortunes of the APC in the Rivers State. Whether Amaechi will still make Buhari’s cabinet as minister representing Rivers State is a question whose answer is blowing in the wind.