By Shamsuddeen Magaji
Mr. President,
I trust this letter finds His Excellency well. I am writing as a concerned Nigerian citizen from the peaceful Kebbi State. I join other well-meaning youths in expressing a deep apprehension about the recent developments within the ECOWAS, particularly the lock and load resolution that could potentially lead to conflict with our peace-loving neighbors in the Niger Republic. The unwavering determination of His Excellency’s-led ECOWAS to pursue this cause appears akin to unleashing a formidable dragon that may prove impossible to tame. More alarming is the fact that should this path of provocation result in Niger being pushed to the brink of war, it is foreseeable that the first retaliatory strike may tragically impact my home state. This potential scenario weighed heavily on my mind, and I felt compelled to voice my concerns.
During the electioneering campaign, Nigerians witnessed your extraordinary confidence, which filled many with a firm conviction that You would lead our nation to the promised land. Your now household slogan, “Emilokan,” gave many of us an unusual assurance that His Excellency would stubbornly pursue the task of elevating Nigeria to greatness. You fought this battle against highly formidable individuals, and there is no doubt that it is now your turn. Despite the narratives shaped by your detractors, you hold the position of the President for all the people of Nigeria. You fought tirelessly against your rivals and the entrenched interests within your political party that were bent on seeing you fail. Remarkably few people could have survived saying “Emilokan” at the time you did. It takes a man of uncommon strength.
In early February of this year, I had the privilege of discussing Nigerian politics with my professor, Dr. Brandon Kendhammer. During our conversation, we delved into the potential of your success in revitalizing Nigeria’s economy. I spoke with unwavering optimism, highlighting your impressive track record in Lagos and the potential for its replication on a national scale. Your commitment to Lagos has undoubtedly transformed it, and the credit for making the state what it is today truly belongs to you. However, the current resolution by ECOWAS leaves a lot of Nigerians feeling ambivalent, causing many to question whether Mr. President shares the same level of passion for Nigeria as He does for Lagos. Some even contemplate a scenario that had the coup d’état occurred in Benin and not Niger Republic, would His Excellency be willing to jeopardize the Lagos His Excellency has painstakingly built by provoking a war that could potentially result in spiraling his state into chaos?
Mr. President, many young Nigerians have hopes for the future you have assured us. Now that many of us have jealously fought for your turn, there is unease that your ECOWAS-led resolution will no doubt jeopardize our “Emilokan.” Your Excellency, should this war be fought, we may likely not stand in the nearest future in a crowd just as you did to say “Emilokan.” Many Nigerians believe that the prevailing temptation looming in the air, if not combated with the utmost vigor, has the potential to lead our country down a path of instability similar to what is currently faced by nations like Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. These concerns are valid and deserve serious attention. Mr. President’s ECOWAS-led resolution has made many Nigerians engage in introspective conversations regarding the implications of its furtherance. Your stance on this matter makes many compelled to soliloquize: Has war in the 21st century ever genuinely achieved its intended goals? Why are we contemplating the path of war? Is Mr. President following ECOWAS’s directives, or is ECOWAS fulfilling His Excellency’s desires? Who is advising our beloved President? What benefits could this war bring to Nigeria? What type of victory can we reasonably expect? Is this undertaking a pretext to exacerbate northern Nigeria’s already precarious security situation?
Mr. President, when considering the effectiveness of war in achieving its intended goals, one must recognize the events of the 21st century. This era is replete with numerous instances highlighting the unsustainability of employing force as a corrective mechanism, particularly when powerful nations attempt to impose democracy on selected countries. An illustrative case is Libya which lies not far from the shores of Africa. The conflict in Libya was initially framed as a noble endeavor to establish democracy, yet it has plunged the country into an unparalleled crisis, with recovery appearing distant and elusive. An alternative viewpoint might argue that living in a troubled democracy is preferable to residing in a prosperous dictatorship. However, the actual reality of this assertion can only be accurately gauged by the experiences and perspectives of the Libyan people themselves. It would not be inappropriate for your ECOWAS-led contingents to allow the peace-loving people of Niger to shape their own destiny. Recent happenings around the globe have shown that victory in war during the twenty-first century remains elusive.
Mr. President, your choice to engage in a war with Niger may allow your detractors to continue to perceive you differently from how we do. After the ECOWAS resolution’s furtherance, who would believe you genuinely want “the poor” to breathe? Regrettably, this course of action will undoubtedly further suffocate us. Mr. President, your decision to embark on this war leaves numerous Nigerians with doubts about your underlying motives. Drawing a historical context in 1982, Argentine marines invaded the British Falkland Islands, encountering minimal resistance from the small British garrison. President Leopoldo Galtieri celebrated this victory amidst a jubilant crowd.
Interestingly, many from that crowd had demanded his resignation just a few days prior. This instance serves as an example of a diversionary war tactic. Mr. President, even though you remain very popular, especially in my region, this move will no doubt give your detractors carte blanche to opine that this is an attempt to divert the general public from pending public outcry by a section still questioning your electoral victory.
Mr. President, there are speculations that ECOWAS leaders are pressuring you to adopt a firm stance against the coupists in Niger as insurance to protect their regimes. This may be a plausible argument. However, it also raises the vexed question of how heavenly possible it is for member countries of ECOWAS to exert pressure on a robust and courageous leader like you, who governs the most influential black nation on earth. This makes many Nigerians suggest that the decision to go or not to go to war with our peaceful neighboring country rests entirely with our President. Alternatively, the National Security Adviser might have considered and recommended this action. However, it would be unjust to solely credit a respected anti-corruption Caesar with no prior military combatant niche for such a highly complex decision.
Mr. President, it is essential to recall that since your inauguration as Chair of ECOWAS, you have consistently maintained a firm stance against coups in West Africa. This establishes you as a distinguished leader and a staunch advocate of democratic principles. Mr. President, it is worth noting that since your ascension as Chair of ECOWAS, many believe you have addressed the preservation of regimes within the West African sub-region even more fervently than you have talked about promoting economic development in the region. Despite your formidable stature as one of the most prominent black leaders globally, detractors might speculate that you perceive a sense of humiliation from a seemingly inconsequential player like your neighboring country, Niger Republic. Therefore, in an attempt to reinforce your image as a resolute figure, there could be the temptation to engage in a misplaced certainty of military action to demonstrate the strength of your regime. Mr. President, your greatness would be even more pronounced if you refrained from making us fight a war that is not ours.
Mr. President, before concluding that war is inevitable in the current circumstances, I implore you to consider a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of this conflict, especially concerning your primary constituency, the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Although our nation takes pride in being the lion of Africa, the ongoing struggle for survival remains a significant burden for most citizens. When we face a situation where the petrol pump price is N617, and the exchange rate is above 900 dollars per Naira, can we genuinely justify pursuing this course? The answer, undoubtedly, is in the negative. Many Nigerians have criticized your predecessor’s administration, likening it to a frying pan. Mr. President, this action you contemplate may lead us directly into the fire. Speaking mainly for Kebbi State, the implications would be even more devastating, given its current position as one of the most economically backward states. A conflict on our soil could regress us to a medieval-like period. So, Mr. President, please reconsider your stance.
Mr. President, at this critical juncture, it would be fair to ask what kind of victory we should anticipate from this imminent war. Undoubtedly, Nigeria’s military prowess far exceeds that of Niger. Under normal circumstances, you may win the war, but there’s a risk of losing the overall battle. His Excellency is undoubtedly aware that warfare in this 21st century has evolved; it would be risky for your ECOWAS-led contingents to perceive this as solely a war with Niger. At least Burkina Faso and Mali have joined the suit so that invisible actors may play significant roles. Recent history is replete with examples of hegemons engaging in invasions of perceived weaker countries only to face embarrassing outcomes. How could we have imagined that a country like Niger, which our country literally breastfeeds, would sever ties with us even before we did? That audacious move speaks louder. Mr. President knows this seemingly insignificant country is not an empty vessel creating a mere clamor.
On your mandate, most Nigerians stand. Despite the ongoing contestation of your electoral victory in the courts, many Nigerians continue to rally behind your mandate. But surprisingly, several powerful countries that had previously been ambivalent about endorsing your electoral mandate have suddenly aligned themselves with your war mandate. Mr. President, this undoubtedly leaves detractors with an unequivocal assertion that you will likely prioritize the interests of those who neither voted you in nor affirmed your legitimacy as our esteemed leader. Mr. President, logistics-wise, it is like walking in a park when superpowers decide to go to war. This is so because they produce heavy artilleries and need not buy from others. Mr. President, since we are less fortunate than those superpowers, let us use the ones we have already purchased from them wisely, as restocking would come at a significant cost and to the detriment of our nation’s coffers.
Mr. President, while it is noteworthy that most ECOWAS countries supporting your intention to engage in war are far from Niger’s borders, our own territory would become the battleground. Embarking on this perilous mission of an own goal would be a grievous mistake for Nigeria, the lion of Africa. It is not an exaggeration to assert that the spillover effects from this conflict would impact our beloved country more profoundly than any other ECOWAS nation. We are still grappling with the challenge of combating banditry, and this war may inadvertently create an opportunity for a second front for terrorist activities, primarily in northwestern Nigeria.
Mr. President, contrary to the speculations by some of my peers in the northern region, who believe that you have deliberately orchestrated exacerbating the fragility of our already vulnerable region, many who know your antecedents would find it difficult to subscribe to such notions. Your established track record and affiliations with our kinsmen should ordinarily lead these skeptics to reconsider their stance. However, Nigeria is a nation riddled with political mistrust. This phenomenon did not arise out of thin air; instead, it has been fueled by the actions of politicians over the years, leading to the polarization of our once-unified country.
My President, our esteemed leader, I share your unwavering belief in the sanctity of democracy, as it stands as the superior alternative among various forms of government. However, Nigeria should not be enticed into a conflict that we might indeed conquer in the physical sense yet ultimately result in a Pyrrhic victory. Should the ECOWAS-led forces eventually invade Niger and effectively quell the coup, would our forces be obligated to remain there indefinitely to safeguard the installed regime? Hence, it stands to reason that the people of Niger should be allowed to shape their destiny, free from coercion but guided by patience and reasonable diplomacy.
Mr. President, I understand you have a nation to lead and may need more time to read my entire letter. In fact, I may be flattering myself by assuming you will read it at all. However, as you consider the prospect of waging this war, His Excellency should not overlook the potential unintended consequences it may bring. Without a doubt, coup d’état within our sub-region has become endemic, leading many ECOWAS leaders to vie for the chance to safeguard their regimes. Undeniably, there is no joy in experiencing the toppling of one’s electoral mandate. A coup takes place when a crisis coincides with an opportunity. Nigeria’s democracy has been safeguarded because the necessary crisis has not surfaced, and we forbid an opportunity like that.
Mr. President, it goes without saying that while our great armed forces would undoubtedly display exceptional morale in fighting against our enemy when provoked by a foreign aggressor to defend our territorial integrity, they may likely not exhibit the same fervor when tasked with toppling a regime established through a practice that only civilians like us perceive as wrong. We, therefore, must tread carefully. The stance of the ECOWAS Chief of Defence Staff, as evident from their body language and resolution, strongly emphasizes the need for diplomacy to take precedence over military action. Since the return to civilian rule, the Nigerian military has been unwavering in its commitment to safeguarding our democracy. We should continue to encourage them to do so.
Mr. President, I and countless Nigerians wholeheartedly support and have immense faith in your resolute determination to elevate our nation to even greater heights. The level of love and trust Nigerians have displayed towards you is unparalleled despite taking making many unpopular stances. His Excellency had remarkably witnessed this sentiment, even when Nigerians accepted the removal of fuel subsidies and the prevailing exchange rate as fait accompli. Such a stance might have proven insurmountable for past Nigerian presidents, yet it is a testament to the deep trust and special connection you enjoy. Your Excellency, it is essential to recognize that my contemporaries may not extend the same level of understanding toward a war with Niger.
Mr. President, our shared history and intertwined destinies with the people of Niger are too precious to be jeopardized by a conflict that could have devastating consequences for both nations. Nigeria has a unique role as a regional leader, and our actions carry significant weight within ECOWAS. While many Nigerians understand the importance of addressing military coups, we firmly believe that war with Niger should be taken off the table. Instead of confronting, His Excellency is humbly urged to consider alternative solutions prioritizing patient diplomacy.
Niger Republic has shown remarkable progress in recent years and has supported our country in the fight against violent extremism. The country deserves the opportunity to continue its growth without the looming threat of war. Our two nations share common challenges and opportunities; there is much to gain from cooperation and collaboration. By choosing a path of peace and understanding, we can set a powerful example for the entire region, promoting stability, economic growth, and mutual respect. I implore you, Mr. President, to use your influential position to advocate for restraint, diplomacy, and a renewed commitment to peaceful negotiations within ECOWAS. Let us work towards building bridges, fostering understanding, and finding common ground with our neighbors. The potential consequences of conflict are far-reaching, affecting innocent lives, our economy, and regional stability.
As a citizen who deeply cares about the future of our great nation and mainly my immediate community, I stand with many others who share my concerns. Please consider the gravity of the situation and use your wisdom and leadership to guide us toward lasting peace and cooperation in the region. Thank you for taking the time to read my letter. While hoping our collective efforts will help avoid the specter of war and usher in a brighter, more harmonious future for Nigeria and our neighbors. Mr. President, now that you have your turn, do not kill our “Emilokan.”
GOD BLESS THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA
Magaji, a lawyer and war and peace specialist, who sent this piece from Ohio, USA, can be reached via [email protected]
