Professor of International Relations, Hassan Ajisafe Salihu in this interview speaks on the implications of the exit of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS and the approval given by the regional body. He concluded that their exit appears a fait accompli while admonishing the member countries to prepare for their post-exit era.
What is your perspective on the impending exit of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS?
ECOWAS was formed primarily to promote the economic integration of West African States. The method adopted is that of gradualism, that it was just not possible to jump to the highest level of integration but through a gradual method; elimination of tariffs, common tariffs and encourage members not to pursue unfriendly trade relations with other countries.
However, over time we have seen ECOWAS drifting to political issues, trying to talk about good governance, democracy and stuffs like that, to the point that they passed a resolution of not recognising any military takeover, what they call unconstitutional change of government.
So, you can see that is an evolving association that has passed through many phases and is still in the process of achieving its main objective.
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Talking about the exit of the three countries, when the whole thing started, I made my point very clear that the way the coupists were being over-pampered, may embolden them to pursue a different course, not the one being anticipated. Some of the members of the group where I made my comment were not seeing what I was seeing. I even blamed General Gowon for working out a big deal that was obviously more in favour of the coupists. That deal was too one-sided, unfortunately most people didn’t see what I was seeing.
When these people now continued with their attitude, I then asked them, can you see now? So I am not surprised that they have formed their own association and they have not listened to appeal coming from ECOWAS because ECOWAS, put the last thing first and put the first thing last. Sanctioning them, was not necessary but that was the first line of action taken by Nigeria. Appealing to them should have been the first line of reaction. Unfortunately we missed the step and these people are reacting in their own way and that is where we are.
Do you see the three countries rescinding their decision?
These people are not likely to rescind their decision, that is the truth of the matter. More so, the chap in Burkina Faso is making waves with some of the policies he is pursuing which are more in favour of his people. These people are trying to be nationalistic. So those who are condemning them, what policies have you pursued that are in the benefit of your people?
Nigeria is moving towards France but there is nothing extraordinary about that except to say Nigeria should be very careful because France is too far away from us. These countries are very close to us in West Africa, there would be the need for us to find a way of bringing them back because I want to assume that it is not only these three countries that have issues, there may be others who have not been able to come out publicly. So in other words it’s important to nip it in the bud because of the contagious effect.
Given the trade relations we have with some of these neighbours, what would be the implication of their exit?
In terms of trade relations, the volume of trade is not too high between Nigeria and these countries, officially. But when you talk about unofficial channel, it is much.
Nigeria obviously dominates the market in these three countries through exportation of products. I must agree that we have been trading a lot with them though unofficially and once this crisis continues, it may affect our trade relations with them. And I don’t think government is thinking about an alternative for now.
Even security wise, we are facing Boko Haram. The war against Boko Haram would slow down in a bit because these our neighbours are not likely to cooperate with us. Of course I read in the paper where Niger is saying it is counting on the expertise of Nigeria, but that may be just a diplomatic stunt.
They are already looking for ways of cutting their level of dependence on Nigeria. And if you must know Nigeria was considered powerful in Africa because of this likelihood of neighbours coming to the aid of Nigeria. Now that these neighbours have bolted away, certainly the power calculus of Nigeria would go down because in international system the power you have is important but the amount of goodwill you enjoy among your neighbours is equally important. With the troubled relations with the neighbours, Nigeria’s power calculus in the world may experience a downward slip.
What drastic diplomatic steps do you think ECOWAS can take to get these countries to rescind their decision?
The matter is actually complicated. In international system, there are so many variables and interests. And since Nigeria put the wrong step forward, it has created a lot of problems. What diplomatic method to use? There is nothing extraordinary we can do because it involves super powers. There are so many interests involved. Russia is involved, America is involved, France is involved. So that means that Nigeria may not be the ultimate decider of the matter.
These countries are not likely to rescind their decision. They would go ahead after all they have written to say they are no longer members, they are only following the protocols. So I don’t see them changing their mind, that is not to say it is impossible but I don’t see the feasibility.
Nigeria should start talking about post-exit of these countries from ECOWAS because if you continue to talk to this, talk to that one, it is just diplomatic grandstanding. The efforts might yield nothing at all. Nothing can change except that you (Nigeria and other ECOWAS states) should be thinking about your policy reactions after the deadline.
Does the current situation with ECOWAS have to do with the leadership of the country and our relationship with France?
There is an intricate relationship between domestic and foreign policy. It is not possible to separate one from the other. Whatever is happening in Nigeria most times propels what happens externally. What I would say is that the level of domestic equilibrium in Nigeria sometime encourages the country to do more externally and conversely when the level of disquiet is very high, you see Nigeria going forward, coming back.
But let me tell you, the country needs to be very careful with France. France has never been our friend all through. It has always been crisis today, cooperation tomorrow. But one point that must be borne in mind is that France still maintains its hostility towards Nigeria. Whatever is happening now is a passing phase. Nigeria is a long standing threat to France and the country understands that.
It is good we are talking together but Nigeria needs to be careful because of the hegemonic desire of France. If three of her former colonies are misbehaving, what about the remaining ones unless we say let’s remove Guinea. So, I think in their strategic calculation Nigeria is a threat and the country needs to understand that. They don’t need to over-celebrate the circumstantial issues which may soon fade away.
We can see the desperation in the current government in wooing France because of the level of economic crisis we are facing in Nigeria but we should be mindful of history and we should study the history of Nigeria-France relations and act accordingly.
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