ECOWAS should go for transitional agreement with Niger coupists – Dr Umar Ardo

Dr Umar Ardo is a seasoned politician who contested for the Adamawa governorship election on the platform of Social Democratic Party (SDP). He is also vast in international affairs, having taught at the Nigerian Defence Academy. In this interview on Trust TV’s Daily Politics programme, he spoke on the complications surrounding the coup in Niger Republic and what the President Bola Tinubu-led ECOWAS must do to avoid humanitarian crisis in the Sahel, Nigeria inclusive.

Why do you think soldiers staged a coup in Niger Republic?

For you to understand the actions of the coupists in Niger, you need to take the background; understand the background of the Nigerien politics.

Mahamadou Issoufou led Niger as president for a period of about 10 years and after the expiration of his two terms, he inclined himself towards continuity. He had a prime minister, Hama Amadou, who also had an eye for the presidency and was very popular with the Nigerien people. So, Hama refused to support the position of his president towards elongating their leadership.

His tenure?

Yes! So, then in connivance with France and with the defunct Buhari administration, Mahamadou Issoufou now brought in Muhammad Bazoum.

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You mean Nigeria had a hand in the coming of ousted President Bazoum?

Yeah, Mahamadou Issoufou brought in Muhammad Bazoum but then Hama Amadou was not happy and started opposing it; and trying to contest whether or not he had the support of the president.

So, while in France for a visit, they charged him on trump-up charges and he was convicted in absentia. So, he could not come back (to Niger).

You mean to go back to Niger to contest election?

And also, he was banned from contesting and that was how Bazoum came in and he opposed Bazoum even at that. So, when they did the first round of elections, Bazoum did not win and had to go for a second round of elections.

Meaning he was very popular?

Yeah, Hama Amadou was very popular so Bazoum did not win convincingly. So quickly they worked for a government of national unity, bringing in this political party, bringing in that political party, and that did not go well with the majority of the Nigerien people which was why there was an attempt to halt the inauguration of Muhammad Bazoum by the military. There was a coup plot to halt that inauguration but it was foiled with the support of France and the Nigerian government.

So, Nigeria kept playing a big role in Niger under Buhari?

Nigeria kept playing a role. I know for a fact that Mohammed Bazoum’s wrappers for campaign were printed here in Nigeria by one of the main cabal members of the Buhari regime.

 And this is what happened in the open; nobody knows what happened underground…

I know for a fact, so these things formed the base of the politics in Niger and this had been simmering until it got to the head last July when the military removed Mohammed Bazoum. Thus, until you get the politics; the dynamics of the politics of a people, you cannot just come to a conclusion like that.

Then secondly, for ECOWAS countries like Senegal, I was in Senegal in 2012 when Macky Sall was contesting against Abdoulaye Wade along with other nine candidates. It was seven-year tenure then but Macky Sall said he was going to amend the constitution to make it five-year tenure and two terms maximum, and he did.

Now, in changing the constitution to elongate his tenure, does that portray us (Africans) democrats? You can see the main opposition candidate; that young man, Ousmane Sonko, was jailed. I saw the parliament had opened the contest for everybody.

Then look at Togo’s Eyadéma; how many years has the man been there? 14years; and his father had been there for over 30 years.

Then Equatorial Guinea; the man has been there for years you know… We just don’t have a universal definition of democracy.

Especially in Africa?

Yeah! Chinese called their democracy people’s democracy, America and the West called theirs liberal democracy. Even Mobutu Sese Seko said his government was democratic, so you don’t go to war on ideological differences because I have my ideology; you have yours. And then you say you are going to war to enforce your ideology on mine; that is wrong.

Now are you saying Nigeria is wrong for contemplating to go to war with Niger?

ECOWAS is wrong to say…

Well, ECOWAS and Nigeria are wrong for taking such a position because it contravenes the provision of United Nations Charter which you know prohibits member states from interfering in internal affairs of another member state.

It encourages, like Article 3, in fact demands that a conflict be resolved through diplomatic means or other means against the use of aggression.

Article 3 of the African Union Charter also forbids interference in the internal affairs of another country. It forbids the use of force on a member country and I don’t know any protocol within Africa, within the ECOWAS that says you can use force in order to enforce your view on another country based on the internal affairs of that country so long as that affair is not a security threat to the rest of the continent or to the neighbour or to the other country that wants to attack its neighbour.

So, a coup in a country like Niger cannot be said to constitute a threat; a security threat to other parts…

And that is the question I wanted to ask; whether the coup has any effect on Nigeria.

It doesn’t.

What about the ripple effect? Your area of interest is political history… If something happens to your neighbour, it may directly or indirectly affect you…

No two things on this earth are exactly the same; everything is based on issues that happened there that precipitate them to happen.

So, you think the coup in Niger may not necessarily precipitate or give some energy to soldiers in Nigeria to say okay, let’s also give a try?

Not at all, except if the variables that happened in Niger also happen in Nigeria, Guinea Bissau, Ghana, or any of the ECOWAS member states.

Of course, I am not for military rule. I oppose military rule in its entity but at the same time, the only solution to military rule is good governance. Democracy must be able to advance the interest of the generality of the people; it must be able to benefit the people. Where democracy benefits only its practitioners then that democracy is bound to fail. And we have had failed democracies across the world and besides, democracies fail not necessarily by military coup alone.

You mean there are other variables?

There are other variables; for example, like what we are having in Senegal, it’s a failure of democracy; like what we have in Togo, it’s a failure of democracy; like what we have in Equatorial Guinea; it’s a failure of democracy.

But does that justify military takeover?

Nothing justifies military takeover but also nothing justifies the invasion of another sovereign state by another sovereign state.

Okay, I want to get this clear because the letter Tinubu sent to the National Assembly to allow him invoke some relevant sections of the Nigerian Constitution so that he can now also lead Nigerian troops together with the ECOWAS to go and restore democracy in Niger; is that correct, and is that what he meant?

Well, from the information I have, I have not heard or seen the Senate president read out the letter. I don’t know whether you have seen it, whether you have had the context of the letter, but I have it on good authority that President Tinubu didn’t send a letter requesting the Senate to approve the use of force. One, the use of force itself must have to be sanctioned by ECOWAS and that meeting by ECOWAS to do so has not taken place.

The president’s letter was said to have just informed the Senate the decision, the resolution of the ECOWAS heads of government, so it wasn’t actually asking for the Senate’s approval to send troops.

It is the resolution of the ECOWAS heads of states that was sent to the Senate for their information only; not for any approval of such kind. Besides, it is not just the Senate that is responsible for such approval; the issue of war is for the National Assembly in a joint session.

Is it that some people may be out for mischief to have misled Nigerians to perceive that Tinubu is eager to go to war?

Well, it will not be in his best interest and in the best interest of Nigeria. From what I have deciphered from the conventional media, in the social media, talks across groups and so on, the general view of people is against military intervention in Niger.

And if democracy includes consultations with the citizenry, this is good enough. The Nigerian people are democratic; they say they don’t want that and if you can take a referendum today, I can guarantee you 90 per cent at least of northern Nigeria will not approve that because Nigeria and Niger are virtually one and the same, especially in northern Nigeria. Who are the ethnic nationalities in Niger? The Hausa, the Fulani, the Barebari, the Zabarmawa, and so on; these are the ethnic groups in Nigeria, so we share common identity, common geography, common ecology, common history and common heritage and Niger had always supported Nigeria from independence.

During the Civil War in Nigeria, in spite of the fact that France was in support of Biafra and had cajoled its African colonies to support Biafra, the countries like Cote D’ivoire that are talking today, countries like Senegal, countries like Gabon, countries like Togo, countries like Cameroon were all in support of Biafra.

They wanted Biafra to go?

Yeah, Niger singled itself out and supported Nigeria. That was why immediately after that, Gowon had to go there for a thank-you visit. So, we cannot hit our friends.

Is it that the leaders we have now in power have lost touch with history or they are not directly connected with the reality?

No, I believe the president means well for the country; I don’t think that he will just want to plunge the country into war.

Don’t you think he can do it to prove himself as ECOWAS leader?

No, he doesn’t need to do that to prove himself as ECOWAS leader because he   wouldn’t know what will be the outcome of it. We should not turn our place into a theatre of a proxy war for the world global powers.

Already the consequences are these; one, ECOWAS will disintegrate, already the military-prone countries – Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso are in support of Niger.

We have Sudan up there, which is a neighbour of Niger, with a military regime and they are likely to go Niger side. Algeria had already taken a decision to support Niger and I saw in the papers; whether it’s true or not, I don’t know. Egypt which is the most powerful military country in Africa would support Niger.

They are more powerful than us? We are the giant of Africa….

We cannot afford to have that in Africa. Then the Nigerien people, government, the junta; there they are forced to go and look for external help and so whether it’s true or not, they have signed an agreement with Wagner, an international mercenary that can come and destabilise us. We know what they are doing in Mali or so.

So, I believe very strongly that the president means very well but he may not have all the facts with him but if he has the facts, then there is nothing for you. If you make a mistake, you say okay, this is a mistake, we are correcting it. What ECOWAS and the president need to do to save face for everybody is to come to a transitional agreement with the Nigerien authority, let the Nigerien government make a transition programme and then conduct an election and hand over.

We have done it before; we have done it in Nigeria two times, many countries did it in West African sub-region itself; many ECOWAS member states did it. But for you to insist that you will have to return this person that had been removed and use force to do so or you should reinstate him and then after the reinstatement we will use force, I don’t think it is in the best interest of this country and the sub-region.

Don’t you think the economic blockade imposed on Niger will do the magic like the closure of the border, disconnection of their electricity and many others, even though they have also fired back with closing their airspace and it has started telling on Nigeria? 

Well, I think Niger has borders with many countries; or so; it borders Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Sudan, Algeria, and Nigeria; so, the closure of borders of Nigeria and, maybe one or two, would not have much effect on them if they get the cooperation of the other countries. So, the regime can remain in office for a very long time.

And we may end up paying more; I mean in terms of the sanctions because I heard that the blockage of the airspace has started telling on air fares from Nigeria…

Because you have to divert, and even more important is the cutting of the power supply to Niger. This was a bilateral agreement between Nigeria and Niger; it is not an ECOWAS affair. It is done so that what happened with the Benue River will not happen with the Niger River.

In the Benue River, if you go, when we were kids, ships and vessels were plying from the Atlantic Ocean to come to Lokoja, to go to Ibbi to Lau, to Numan, to Yola and from there they go to Garwa with containers.

But when Cameroon came and built the Lagdo Dam at the head of Benue, the water level was shut down and then Benue dried up; trillions have been lost.

Now with the drying up of the Benue, the tributaries of the Benue such as Gongola River, Taraba River, Katsina Ala River, and others all dried up thereby drying up the interior and so agricultural activities have been affected. So now, if in retaliation, Niger said they are blocking the Niger River and they are building a dam. It will halt the free flow, which will affect Jebba, it will affect Kainji, it will affect the River Basin Authority, and it will be catastrophic.

If I understand what you are saying, it’s like Nigeria stands to lose more than Niger if this problem escalates?

Of course, there’s absolutely no doubt about that on account of the Niger River and don’t forget countries even go to war on these kinds of things. The war between Egypt and Ethiopia was on the issue of the Nile; countries open up canals where there is no river.

We have a river given to us by nature, yet we are trying to play politics that will give problems in that river; that of the Benue had already been disrupted so if the Niger is done, then we are sunk.

So, I don’t think this is well thought out; it is not just about, okay you can go ahead, let us just assume that ECOWAS will go ahead and go and deal with Niger and they can deal with Niger.

How many soldiers do the Nigeriens have? They have about 13,000 to 14,000 but they can bring other countries…. So, we go and remove the junta and then return Bazoum, they will now retreat and then we are going to have guerrilla warfare. So, it means that Nigeria must station its troops to maintain that regime.

Is Nigeria ready and, by extension, ECOWAS for humanitarian crisis that will come up with this adventure?

Already we have nearly 300,000 refugees sacked by the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria; they are going to be the first casualties, the Nigerian refugees.

So, we have to take all these things into account and the government did what it ought to do; it sent a high-powered delegation led by Gen. Abdulsalam, a former head of state, and His Eminence, the Sultan.

But they were stopped at the airport; they were not allowed and they sent lowly officials. Is this not a disgrace to Nigeria?

They were not stopped at the airport.

Okay; what happened?

Now, when they went, of course, the Nigerien junta planned for that, planned for them. They mobilised sea of people and so when they came, they said ‘we are going to hold our meeting at the airport.’ They organised a place at the airport, but did not see the head of state, they did not see the number two man, who is actually the power behind the coup, but they saw the number three general, and the number two man was not in the country; he was in Conakry.

So, when they came, Abdulsalami, Sultan and others said, ‘Okay we are messengers; we were sent by our president, the chairman of ECOWAS. We brought you the resolution of ECOWAS.’

They collected the resolution; they said that after the coup, at least the chairman of ECOWAS should have called and asked what happened, why are you people taking over power, what is the problem?

You mean they said Tinubu should have called them and asked questions?

To ask questions; nobody called them, nobody talked with them, even the meeting of ECOWAS, they were not formally invited; they just saw it was done and then the resolution was passed.

So, they were wrongly treated?

This was the first time they were seeing the resolution and they explained to the team why they did what they did, the issues involved, but they were not heard and you must hear the other side. This is the principle of natural justice.

But is the Nigerian military prepared to go to Niger and fight?

Nigerian military can go to Niger and fight because Nigerian military is a whole lot larger. The Nigerien armed forces are less than seven per cent of the total number.

But we have been fighting Boko Haram for over a decade.

Yeah, Boko Haram, you know, it’s a guerrilla war.

But will they be able to confront the Wagner mercenaries?

We don’t know; we don’t know other than the Wagner; we don’t know what Mali will do; we don’t know what Guinea will do; we don’t know what Burkina Faso will do; we don’t know what Algeria will do. And in this heightened cold war between the East and the West; between the United States and NATO on the one hand and then Russia, China on the other hand, this would just be a theatre of war because Russia will not sit down and allow France and the United States that would have been interpreted NATO influence to come and change this thing like that using ECOWAS. They will not sit down and watch. They will come in one way or the other and we don’t know where it will escalate to. Let them go and do their war in Europe, let them go and do their war in South China Sea.

Can we assume that these war mongers are actually trying to use Niger as a testing ground in Africa especially Niger that is so close to Nigeria?

It is not impossibility and because of this suspicion we should tread carefully. We should ensure that there is no war in this sub-region. Let us just resolve our internal problems; Boko Haram, IPOB, Fulani, banditry; let us solve them, let us solve our economic problems. The naira has gone down.

You know that President Tinubu is in court; I mean the tribunal with other opposition politicians who are trying to justify why he shouldn’t be the president and from indications, the United States is also interested in what is happening in Niger, just the way France is interested; how do you think Tinubu can navigate his way without injuring maybe the feelings of anyone; I know we are an independent country and nobody should touch our internal issues but how can he remain safe in the midst of these war mongers and all that?

Just by satisfying the needs of Nigerians. If the president and his administration will satisfy the needs of Nigerians, Nigerians will mobilise to support him.

They will protect him from the anger of the super powers?

They’ll protect the administration, they will support the administration, and they will defend the administration against not only the United States but against all other powers.

A hungry man is an angry man. Can we say the Niger issue is just a distraction by our leaders to divert the attention of Nigerians?

No, no, no, no; it’s only the elite that are talking about Niger; the poor are talking about hunger. That is their problem. I can guarantee you they (poor) don’t care about what happens in Niger. They don’t care whether we invade Niger or we don’t invade Niger. They are hungry and you cannot tell a hungry man just wait until tomorrow I will solve your problem. You don’t wait for hunger and our people are hungry and that should be the major target.

I wrote an article a few weeks or so ago on how the president is supposed to solve the problem of a failed state.

Okay, but are we a failed state already?

Of course, we are a failed state. A failed state is a state that law and order; authority has collapsed, and authority has collapsed, if we cannot solve even the simple traffic problems on the street, how do we solve more complex social issues?

Like the naira devaluation?

Like the naira devaluation which you know has taken a toll.

And energy crisis?

Energy crisis, everything! So, we need to solve these problems and if Niger is a diversion, it is a diversion on the government itself; it’s diverting the government from doing what it ought to do.

Now, how should ECOWAS approach this, more so that the president has summoned a meeting on Thursday; what do you think they should do?  

I think ECOWAS and the president should give the Nigerien junta a lee way; let them come to a negotiated solution. It shouldn’t be a one way that it is either this way or no way.

The kneejack approach should be discarded?

We should give a negotiated approach to this and say maybe we give you one year, we give you two years, or come out with a timetable. So, let the Nigerien authority come up with their input on how to solve it. That way we will all have peace. The problem will be solved and nobody’s face will be scarred.

Finally, what do you think northern leaders should do on this?

Everybody has spoken.

Yeah, what about the governors? Because from Sokoto to Borno, you know about six or seven states will all will be affected by war in Niger, so what do you think they should do as a common front to end this thing?

I think they should impress on the president, the chairman of ECOWAS, to come up with a negotiated exit.

A workable solution?

Yes! For the Junta there, they should make sure that force is not used because if it is done, you cannot use unconstitutional means in order to achieve or solve an unconstitutional act.

Two wrongs can never be right?

Two wrongs can never be right.